[Giants]

I don't know if anyone has had a chance to watch one of the Giants' pre-season games.  Giants have split their first two games.

Couple of tidbits:

- not-sure-what-string Catcher Brett Auerbach is a fireplug (5'9") who has two triples in three ABs. He was a 40th round selection out of Alabama four years ago.
- LaMonte Wade is 2 for 2 with a double and an HR.
- The aforementioned Heliot Ramos is 1 for 2.
- Logan Webb pitched two shutout innings, striking out five of the six batters.  P. S. Fun fact about Logan Webb: He led the NL in hit batsmen in 2020 with 7.
- Mauricio Llovera also looks great.  Two shutout innings, no walks or hits, struck out three.  Hit a batter.
- Giants have four HRs in two games (Wade, Duggar, Denoves, Mathisen). Giants pitchers have only given up one HR.
- On the other end, Grant McCray has struck out three times in three ABs and Jaylin Davis, Wilmer Flores and, Hunter Bishop have struck out twice in 2 ABs.
- Austin Slater is 0 for 2.  No walks or K's.
- 30 year old fill-in pitcher Brian Brickhouse gave up six runs on three hits and three walks in an inning
- 28 year old Corey Oswalt gave up three runs in 1 2/3 innings.  Has had a cup of coffee with the Mets.  Doesn't miss many bats.
- Finally, perennial hopeful Tyler Beede gave up two runs on five hits in two innings.  One was an HR.

To the big contract conversation, I'm of two minds.  Barry Zito had 14 years in the bigs (I don't count the cup of coffee with Oakland two years after he left SF).  He pitched 7 years for each team.  He never had an ERA under 4.00 for the Giants and was above 5.00 three of his seven years with the Giants.  His ERA was above 4.00 only once with the A's.  He won a Cy Young with the A's, was a three time All Star, and led the league in wins one year and starts four years.  With the Giants, he led the NL in losses one year.

He really only had one good year with the Giants, going 15-8 in 2012, his only winning season with the G's.  Never had a losing season with the A's.  But 2012 was amazing.  The Giants won six straight elimination games in the playoffs, and Zito pitched and won the first one.

A bit more on Auerbach…

He was drafted in 2018 by Colorado in the 40th Round as a JC player (Saddleback).  He did not sign.  He moved on to Alabama and was signed as a free agent in 2020 by SF.

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Silly money?  Seeger? Semien, Marte, Castellanos, Suzuki, Schwarber, Correa. Freeman. Olson? All dumb?  (I’ll give you Bryant as from what I read Rockies were way beyond what anyone else offered. Kind o& like when Giants signed Zito). 

Sorry, but I don’t buy the “all long term contracts are bad” argument.  Nor do I think that the Giants are just smarter than everyone else.

Whoa.  Hang on a second.  NO ONE ever said that “all long term contracts are bad”.  

Instead, a more measured analysis is in order….

First, I would define a six+ year contract for nine figures as silly money.  I would suggest that more often than not, those contracts do not age well.  YES, there are definitely exceptions to the rule.

Here are the contracts signed this off-season that fall in the silly money category:

Seager - $325M for 10 years
Bryant - $182M for 7 years
Semien - $175M for 7 years
Olson - $168M for 8 years
Freemen - $162 for 6 years
Baez - $140M for 6 years

Of those, I like the Olson deal.  The others?  Not so much.

Note:  I get the notion that LA is willing to throw money away long term in order to wave the “World Series or bust” flag this year.  

Of the other guys you mentioned (Marte, Castellanos, Suzuki, Schwarber, Correa), here are my thoughts:

Marte - 4 years/$78 million.  Reasonable.  
Castellanos - 5 years/$100 million.  Term is problematic - bad signing
Suzuki - 5 years/$99.625M (incl. payment to Hiroshima).  Reasonable.
Schwarber - 4 years/$79M.  Term is problematic - bad signing 
Correa - 3 years/105M.  Given the opt outs, a great decision by both parties. 

By the way, the other three nine figure contracts were signed by Gausman, Ray and Scherzer for five, five and three years respectively.  Of those, the Scherzer deal was a good move.  The other two represent problematic terms.

The Dodgers are willing to spend what it takes.  Freeman was a great pickup.  Nothing silly about Olson Semien or Seager.

Since we disagree about Semien and Seager, I guess we will need to revisit this conversation in 2030……

Why 2030?  You sign these guys long term knowing that you are not going to get the value on the back end. But they are key to winning now.  And,, btw, they also can help with revenue.  More interest. More butts in seats.  More merchandise sales.  

Hunter Pence. Signed  contract in ‘13, I believe.  Horrible last couple years. Bad contract, right?   They don’t  win WS in ‘14 without Pence.  So, worth every penny.

Using that logic (which I agree with), Zito was also a great signing because SF doesn’t win the ‘12 WS without his heroics in the playoffs.  

As for Pence, he had a positive WAR until his last season.  He was not horrible in 16, 17.  He was ok.

[Giants]

I don't know if anyone has had a chance to watch one of the Giants' pre-season games.  Giants have split their first two games.

Couple of tidbits:

- not-sure-what-string Catcher Brett Auerbach is a fireplug (5'9") who has two triples in three ABs. He was a 40th round selection out of Alabama four years ago.
- LaMonte Wade is 2 for 2 with a double and an HR.
- The aforementioned Heliot Ramos is 1 for 2.
- Logan Webb pitched two shutout innings, striking out five of the six batters.  P. S. Fun fact about Logan Webb: He led the NL in hit batsmen in 2020 with 7.
- Mauricio Llovera also looks great.  Two shutout innings, no walks or hits, struck out three.  Hit a batter.
- Giants have four HRs in two games (Wade, Duggar, Denoves, Mathisen). Giants pitchers have only given up one HR.
- On the other end, Grant McCray has struck out three times in three ABs and Jaylin Davis, Wilmer Flores and, Hunter Bishop have struck out twice in 2 ABs.
- Austin Slater is 0 for 2.  No walks or K's.
- 30 year old fill-in pitcher Brian Brickhouse gave up six runs on three hits and three walks in an inning
- 28 year old Corey Oswalt gave up three runs in 1 2/3 innings.  Has had a cup of coffee with the Mets.  Doesn't miss many bats.
- Finally, perennial hopeful Tyler Beede gave up two runs on five hits in two innings.  One was an HR.

To the big contract conversation, I'm of two minds.  Barry Zito had 14 years in the bigs (I don't count the cup of coffee with Oakland two years after he left SF).  He pitched 7 years for each team.  He never had an ERA under 4.00 for the Giants and was above 5.00 three of his seven years with the Giants.  His ERA was above 4.00 only once with the A's.  He won a Cy Young with the A's, was a three time All Star, and led the league in wins one year and starts four years.  With the Giants, he led the NL in losses one year.

He really only had one good year with the Giants, going 15-8 in 2012, his only winning season with the G's.  Never had a losing season with the A's.  But 2012 was amazing.  The Giants won six straight elimination games in the playoffs, and Zito pitched and won the first one.

A bit more on Auerbach…

He was drafted in 2018 by Colorado in the 40th Round as a JC player (Saddleback).  He did not sign.  He moved on to Alabama and was signed as a free agent in 2020 by SF.

---

Silly money?  Seeger? Semien, Marte, Castellanos, Suzuki, Schwarber, Correa. Freeman. Olson? All dumb?  (I’ll give you Bryant as from what I read Rockies were way beyond what anyone else offered. Kind o& like when Giants signed Zito). 

Sorry, but I don’t buy the “all long term contracts are bad” argument.  Nor do I think that the Giants are just smarter than everyone else.

Whoa.  Hang on a second.  NO ONE ever said that “all long term contracts are bad”.  

Instead, a more measured analysis is in order….

First, I would define a six+ year contract for nine figures as silly money.  I would suggest that more often than not, those contracts do not age well.  YES, there are definitely exceptions to the rule.

Here are the contracts signed this off-season that fall in the silly money category:

Seager - $325M for 10 years
Bryant - $182M for 7 years
Semien - $175M for 7 years
Olson - $168M for 8 years
Freemen - $162 for 6 years
Baez - $140M for 6 years

Of those, I like the Olson deal.  The others?  Not so much.

Note:  I get the notion that LA is willing to throw money away long term in order to wave the “World Series or bust” flag this year.  

Of the other guys you mentioned (Marte, Castellanos, Suzuki, Schwarber, Correa), here are my thoughts:

Marte - 4 years/$78 million.  Reasonable.  
Castellanos - 5 years/$100 million.  Term is problematic - bad signing
Suzuki - 5 years/$99.625M (incl. payment to Hiroshima).  Reasonable.
Schwarber - 4 years/$79M.  Term is problematic - bad signing 
Correa - 3 years/105M.  Given the opt outs, a great decision by both parties. 

By the way, the other three nine figure contracts were signed by Gausman, Ray and Scherzer for five, five and three years respectively.  Of those, the Scherzer deal was a good move.  The other two represent problematic terms.

The Dodgers are willing to spend what it takes.  Freeman was a great pickup.  Nothing silly about Olson Semien or Seager.

Since we disagree about Semien and Seager, I guess we will need to revisit this conversation in 2030……

Why 2030?  You sign these guys long term knowing that you are not going to get the value on the back end. But they are key to winning now.  And,, btw, they also can help with revenue.  More interest. More butts in seats.  More merchandise sales.  

Hunter Pence. Signed  contract in ‘13, I believe.  Horrible last couple years. Bad contract, right?   They don’t  win WS in ‘14 without Pence.  So, worth every penny.

Using that logic (which I agree with), Zito was also a great signing because SF doesn’t win the ‘12 WS without his heroics in the playoffs.  

As for Pence, he had a positive WAR until his last season.  He was not horrible in 16, 17.  He was ok.