My smartass answer: Akili Smith was viewed as having a higher upside than Daunte Culpepper. Vince Young was viewed as having a higher ceiling than Jay Cutler. Robert Griffin III was viewed as having a higher ceiling than Ryan Tannehill. Blake Bortles was viewed as having a higher ceiling than Derek Carr.
The ceiling teams see in picks around where Lance pan out less than half the time. Oftentimes, like above, lesser regarded QBs actually turn out better. I am not suggesting teams should have picked Culpepper/Cutler/Tannehill/Carr instead but rather that there is a tried and true track record of being a bit patient with QBs and also of finding value in places other than the top four picks of the draft. [That raises another problem with the audacious Trey Lance bet: it being such a boom or bust proposition. With Lance there's a 33 percent chance he's good whereas with a non-QB at #3 you likely have much better odds. Heck, at #12, the pick the Niners gave up, the Cowboys got one of the best players in the NFL in Micah Parsons]
I understand that the argument is that Jimmy G/Daunte Culpepper/Jay Cutler/Ryan Tannehill/Derek Carr aren't likely to win a Super Bowl (though I think several of them are good enough with the right supporting cast) so the idea is to roll the dice and hope they come up with your number. The problem with this argument is that what fans perceive as "ceiling" doesn't necessarily translate to a higher likelihood of greatness. Among the previous top 2-4 picks, it was Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan who ended up reaching the highest ceiling, not any one of the number of dual-threat guys who also went that high.
More to the point, among the QBs who've reached the highest ceiling in the NFL, both historically and recently, they're often guys who weren't top of the draft QBs. Ben Roethlisberger, Jim Kelly, Aaron Rodgers, Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Warren Moon, and Kurt Warner were Hall of Famers who weren't top 10 draft picks, much less top three. Among more recent draft picks Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson have reached awfully high ceilings without being top 10 picks. We'll see how high Jalen Hurts and Mac Jones can get.
Like you said, it's a crap shoot with QBs. Why a team would sell the farm to take that crapshoot at #3 rather than #12 is beyond me. Trading for Trevor Lawrence? Ok. The most likely outcome (relative to expenditure/opportunity cost) for Trey Lance is disaster. Too rich for my blood.
The ceiling teams see in picks around where Lance pan out less than half the time. Oftentimes, like above, lesser regarded QBs actually turn out better. I am not suggesting teams should have picked Culpepper/Cutler/Tannehill/Carr instead but rather that there is a tried and true track record of being a bit patient with QBs and also of finding value in places other than the top four picks of the draft. [That raises another problem with the audacious Trey Lance bet: it being such a boom or bust proposition. With Lance there's a 33 percent chance he's good whereas with a non-QB at #3 you likely have much better odds. Heck, at #12, the pick the Niners gave up, the Cowboys got one of the best players in the NFL in Micah Parsons]
I understand that the argument is that Jimmy G/Daunte Culpepper/Jay Cutler/Ryan Tannehill/Derek Carr aren't likely to win a Super Bowl (though I think several of them are good enough with the right supporting cast) so the idea is to roll the dice and hope they come up with your number. The problem with this argument is that what fans perceive as "ceiling" doesn't necessarily translate to a higher likelihood of greatness. Among the previous top 2-4 picks, it was Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan who ended up reaching the highest ceiling, not any one of the number of dual-threat guys who also went that high.
More to the point, among the QBs who've reached the highest ceiling in the NFL, both historically and recently, they're often guys who weren't top of the draft QBs. Ben Roethlisberger, Jim Kelly, Aaron Rodgers, Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Warren Moon, and Kurt Warner were Hall of Famers who weren't top 10 draft picks, much less top three. Among more recent draft picks Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson have reached awfully high ceilings without being top 10 picks. We'll see how high Jalen Hurts and Mac Jones can get.
Like you said, it's a crap shoot with QBs. Why a team would sell the farm to take that crapshoot at #3 rather than #12 is beyond me. Trading for Trevor Lawrence? Ok. The most likely outcome (relative to expenditure/opportunity cost) for Trey Lance is disaster. Too rich for my blood.