(05-04-2022, 07:50 PM)Giants Wrote: Like OF, I appreciate your passion. However, I think calling me “clueless” is a bit over the top. I stand behind my belief that Lance will be a much better pro QB than Jones. May I suggest that you are not “clueless” regarding your opinions. Instead, I believe misguided might be a better choice of words. :)
“No one knows who the great NFL QBs are going to be”…
Yikes, that is beyond over the top.
Even before they were drafted, I knew that Elway and P. Manning were going to be HOF QBs. It was evident to anyone paying attention that they were extraordinarily talented and were Canton-bound the day they were selected.
Heck, if I knew that as a fan, those who are paid to make personnel decisions certainly knew it.
Msqueri didn't call you clueless, he called everyone clueless, which presumably includes himself (in this context). There have been numerous articles and studies proving that NFL teams don't have particular insight into drafting players; that the degree of randomness is high and that teams that move up to draft a specific player have the same hit/miss rate as those that stay put.
Your comment amount Manning and Elway is the same argument that masqueri documented: that the first overall pick has lived up to expectation at a high rate. What is also documented is that picks 2-4 are far less reliable.
You said that "the odds of Lance leading SF to a Super Bowl win are much greater than the odds of the other aforementioned 20221/2022 QB’s". But what is that based on? nobody knows at this point, and it's unlikely that one player has "much greater" likelihood than the other half dozen.
Lance fits the profile (mobile, strong arm) of player who is frequently characterized as having "major upside". A quarterback who is smart but slow and soft bodied is usually stereotyped as having a high ceiling, being a career backup, possibly a game manager. For example, Tom Brady coming out of college. Is Lance's profile much different from Justin Fields? with the exception that Fields played against top competition in high pressure games in college.
At the end of the day, Lance may be the best or the worst of the QBs. He's in a much better situation than the others who are on worse (or much worse) teams than the 49ers, and who have less accomplished coaches than the 49ers. But there's no evidence at this point, and I don't think Lynch/Shanahan have a demonstrated track record (in drafting) that makes this situation any different from the many high (non-first overall) quarterbacks who have ultimately delivered a broad range of outcomes, with more disappointments than successes. I'm on the side that none of us knows, but it will be fun to find out what happens.
P.S. was writing this and saw that msqueri had already replied when I posted, not trying to pile on.