[DC 86]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]

Passer rating isn't a good stat, and it's a terrible stat for a player in an offense/system with the advantages the Niners provide. Jimmy G had a higher passer rating last year than Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Nobody should think Jimmy was better than those two. Total QBR is a much better stat. In games with 15+ attempts Lance had QBRs of 31.4, 25.9, and 40.6 and his season QBR was 33.4. If he qualified that would have been 29th of 32 NFL QBs. Jimmy, on a much bigger sample, was 13th.

And Lance was a rookie, youngest NFL player in 2021, with the least experience of any rookie QB. He will absolutely be better in year 2 than year 1, and likely better in year 3 than 2. The question is how much better, and will it turn out to have been worth what was given up to get him. Based on what we have seen so far, and his background, no credible argument can be made that he wasn't worth it.  And I would argue there are more reasons to believe he will be than won't, they are:

1. The Niners are ready to part with Garoppolo.  
2. Lance was much, much better in the 2nd half of his 2nd start than the first half of his first start.
3. Positive things Niners players have said about Lance and the fact no disparaging things have been leaked about him.
4. The way he has handled himself and been a professional with no attitude or drama.

All he has to be is a slightly better than Garoppolo for the trade to have been worth it because getting QBs even that good is exceptionally difficult.

That's not the right way to frame the question because there were other quarterbacks available who didn't cost the substantial draft capital that the 49ers expended in moving up to #3.

Of course a QB on a rookie contract is extremely valuable even if he plays at the Garoppolo level. The question to be answered is whether Lance proves to be substantially better than the quarterbacks drafted later in the draft, not whether he proves better than JG.

All of the plaudits that you cited also apply to Justin Fields and Mac Jones, for example. Given Lance's inexperience he may improve and ultimately be a far better QB than those guys. But the contrary is just as (or more) likely. He only started one season in college and never played against an FBS opponent. He only threw 71 passes last season. So we really have no idea.

[DC 86]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]

Passer rating isn't a good stat, and it's a terrible stat for a player in an offense/system with the advantages the Niners provide. Jimmy G had a higher passer rating last year than Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Nobody should think Jimmy was better than those two. Total QBR is a much better stat. In games with 15+ attempts Lance had QBRs of 31.4, 25.9, and 40.6 and his season QBR was 33.4. If he qualified that would have been 29th of 32 NFL QBs. Jimmy, on a much bigger sample, was 13th.

And Lance was a rookie, youngest NFL player in 2021, with the least experience of any rookie QB. He will absolutely be better in year 2 than year 1, and likely better in year 3 than 2. The question is how much better, and will it turn out to have been worth what was given up to get him. Based on what we have seen so far, and his background, no credible argument can be made that he wasn't worth it.  And I would argue there are more reasons to believe he will be than won't, they are:

1. The Niners are ready to part with Garoppolo.  
2. Lance was much, much better in the 2nd half of his 2nd start than the first half of his first start.
3. Positive things Niners players have said about Lance and the fact no disparaging things have been leaked about him.
4. The way he has handled himself and been a professional with no attitude or drama.

All he has to be is a slightly better than Garoppolo for the trade to have been worth it because getting QBs even that good is exceptionally difficult.

That's not the right way to frame the question because there were other quarterbacks available who didn't cost the substantial draft capital that the 49ers expended in moving up to #3.

Of course a QB on a rookie contract is extremely valuable even if he plays at the Garoppolo level. The question to be answered is whether Lance proves to be substantially better than the quarterbacks drafted later in the draft, not whether he proves better than JG.

All of the plaudits that you cited also apply to Justin Fields and Mac Jones, for example. Given Lance's inexperience he may improve and ultimately be a far better QB than those guys. But the contrary is just as (or more) likely. He only started one season in college and never played against an FBS opponent. He only threw 71 passes last season. So we really have no idea.