05-05-2022, 02:02 PM
Just to be clear, I understand that the greatest source for generating surplus value is drafting a QB who becomes a competent starter while on a rookie contract. Average starting QBs earn $25 mm+ so the delta to the rookie wage scale can be invested in other areas for a few years. So I am completely in favor of taking a chance at drafting a QB and even moving up in the draft if necessary.
But the ultimate grade on this transaction depends on how Lance performs relative to Jones (who probably could have been drafted without moving up) or Fields (who could have been drafted with far less cost to move up), not whether Lance eclipses Garoppolo. In fact, even if Lance performs slightly worse than Garoppolo the salary delta applied to other positions makes it a win to have drafted him.
But historically front offices don't seem to have proven insight into quarterback evaluation, as demonstrated by the track record of teams moving up into the top five of the draft. That's the salient point, that unless the 49er front office is exceptional at QB evaluation it's a high bar to justify trading significant assets in order to draft Lance instead of Fields or Jones.
But the ultimate grade on this transaction depends on how Lance performs relative to Jones (who probably could have been drafted without moving up) or Fields (who could have been drafted with far less cost to move up), not whether Lance eclipses Garoppolo. In fact, even if Lance performs slightly worse than Garoppolo the salary delta applied to other positions makes it a win to have drafted him.
But historically front offices don't seem to have proven insight into quarterback evaluation, as demonstrated by the track record of teams moving up into the top five of the draft. That's the salient point, that unless the 49er front office is exceptional at QB evaluation it's a high bar to justify trading significant assets in order to draft Lance instead of Fields or Jones.