[Mick]

Little or no choice among the 2021 draft's top few QB options, but that assumes that they HAD to pick one of the top few 2021 QB options. Assuming that/imagining only a path forward in which they got one of those top few QBs was a blinked, desperate mentality. Put another way, they had a choice whether to get the QB of the future at the top of the draft and they chose to. But they had plenty of other choices available.


1. Draft whoever was remaining at #12, which was hardly a bad option. Mac Jones was a good prospect on paper who was plausibly discussed to go earlier and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a really good rookie year.



2. Draft a promising QB in the second or third round, of which there were numerous options. Davis Mills was one that was obvious to many of us as an extremely high ceiling option and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a solid rookie year.



3. Trade up but not so far up as #3. It was a choice to want to be able to choose between three of the top five rather than just two or to get a decent consolation prize.



4. Trade for a proven NFL QB.



5. Keep Jimmy G as the QB through 2022 and wait for another option to trade or draft for a QB. Acting like the 2021 draft was a once in a lifetime opportunity was itself a desperate move considering we already had a QB1 signed for multiple more seasons playing at a level better than a young first round QB could be expected to play in his first two years. Mock drafts are now forecasting the 2023 draft and it looks possible that QB class will be very strong as well. It wasn't a now or never thing. Patience can pay off. If the Niners passed on a QB at #12 in 2021 they could have gotten Micah Parsons, which probably would have improved near-term Super Bowl odds more than any of these non-Lawrence QB options.



There were choices. The Niners made one, not the only one.

You are for sure correct that there were other paths available. #5 above probably isn't one of them however. Jimmy G will make too much money in 2022 to keep around. They need the cap space. That is why the consensus is that he will be released if he is not traded. Given that, #4 is also problematic because a great veteran QB probably also makes more than they can afford cap-wise. There also may have been nobody out there they liked. They simply needed a cheap but great QB on a rookie contract for a few years. Undoubtedly they considered the other three options and decided to go with the one that would deliver them Lance. Let's just hope it "works" for them. I think the draft is a very random instrument. That said, you have to make your "best possible decision", knowing full well it isn't a lock.

If the coach or GM is a hack (Trent Baalke, Jim whatshisface), I would definitely question this choice based upon the statistics above.  If it's a coach and GM team that got us into two (2) Super Bowls and a conference championship every single year they had an average NFL starting quarterback, then I'd definitely give them the benefit of the doubt, particularly since every year they had a backup QB (or a backup to the backup QB, if you prefer) in Hoyer, Beathard, Mullens; they finished below .500.  Not by much, interestingly, there were a lot of close losses.

After the Jim Tomsula debacle (6-10) and the Chip Kelly disaster (2-14), and seven (7) seasons' of Trent Baalke's miserable draft record, Lynch and Shanahan took over.  Their first season, 2017, is a microcosm of my point.  Using Baalke's "talent", they lost their first six games -- five of them by a field goal or less.  They were 1-10, with Beathard at 0-6 and Hoying at 1-4.  In comes Garropolo, and they go 5-0.  The only difference being that an average NFL starter (Garoppolo) took over for two average NFL backups.  Beathard's QBR (apparently we need to be slaves to that statistic) was 82.7 in those five games, Beathard's QBR was 35.4.  I can't find Hoyer's, but his rating was 74.1 and Garoppolo's was 96.2.

Lynch and Shanahan and everyone on this board knows that to WIN THE SUPER BOWL, you need a great quarterback.  Good quarterbacks, generally speaking, don't win Super Bowls.  Great quarterbacks do.  And I think they see potential greatness in Trey Lance, who is still just 21.  I think the odds of Lance getting to greatness is better than Mac Jones.

[Mick]

Little or no choice among the 2021 draft's top few QB options, but that assumes that they HAD to pick one of the top few 2021 QB options. Assuming that/imagining only a path forward in which they got one of those top few QBs was a blinked, desperate mentality. Put another way, they had a choice whether to get the QB of the future at the top of the draft and they chose to. But they had plenty of other choices available.


1. Draft whoever was remaining at #12, which was hardly a bad option. Mac Jones was a good prospect on paper who was plausibly discussed to go earlier and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a really good rookie year.



2. Draft a promising QB in the second or third round, of which there were numerous options. Davis Mills was one that was obvious to many of us as an extremely high ceiling option and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a solid rookie year.



3. Trade up but not so far up as #3. It was a choice to want to be able to choose between three of the top five rather than just two or to get a decent consolation prize.



4. Trade for a proven NFL QB.



5. Keep Jimmy G as the QB through 2022 and wait for another option to trade or draft for a QB. Acting like the 2021 draft was a once in a lifetime opportunity was itself a desperate move considering we already had a QB1 signed for multiple more seasons playing at a level better than a young first round QB could be expected to play in his first two years. Mock drafts are now forecasting the 2023 draft and it looks possible that QB class will be very strong as well. It wasn't a now or never thing. Patience can pay off. If the Niners passed on a QB at #12 in 2021 they could have gotten Micah Parsons, which probably would have improved near-term Super Bowl odds more than any of these non-Lawrence QB options.



There were choices. The Niners made one, not the only one.

You are for sure correct that there were other paths available. #5 above probably isn't one of them however. Jimmy G will make too much money in 2022 to keep around. They need the cap space. That is why the consensus is that he will be released if he is not traded. Given that, #4 is also problematic because a great veteran QB probably also makes more than they can afford cap-wise. There also may have been nobody out there they liked. They simply needed a cheap but great QB on a rookie contract for a few years. Undoubtedly they considered the other three options and decided to go with the one that would deliver them Lance. Let's just hope it "works" for them. I think the draft is a very random instrument. That said, you have to make your "best possible decision", knowing full well it isn't a lock.

If the coach or GM is a hack (Trent Baalke, Jim whatshisface), I would definitely question this choice based upon the statistics above.  If it's a coach and GM team that got us into two (2) Super Bowls and a conference championship every single year they had an average NFL starting quarterback, then I'd definitely give them the benefit of the doubt, particularly since every year they had a backup QB (or a backup to the backup QB, if you prefer) in Hoyer, Beathard, Mullens; they finished below .500.  Not by much, interestingly, there were a lot of close losses.

After the Jim Tomsula debacle (6-10) and the Chip Kelly disaster (2-14), and seven (7) seasons' of Trent Baalke's miserable draft record, Lynch and Shanahan took over.  Their first season, 2017, is a microcosm of my point.  Using Baalke's "talent", they lost their first six games -- five of them by a field goal or less.  They were 1-10, with Beathard at 0-6 and Hoying at 1-4.  In comes Garropolo, and they go 5-0.  The only difference being that an average NFL starter (Garoppolo) took over for two average NFL backups.  Beathard's QBR (apparently we need to be slaves to that statistic) was 82.7 in those five games, Beathard's QBR was 35.4.  I can't find Hoyer's, but his rating was 74.1 and Garoppolo's was 96.2.

Lynch and Shanahan and everyone on this board knows that to WIN THE SUPER BOWL, you need a great quarterback.  Good quarterbacks, generally speaking, don't win Super Bowls.  Great quarterbacks do.  And I think they see potential greatness in Trey Lance, who is still just 21.  I think the odds of Lance getting to greatness is better than Mac Jones.