06-15-2022, 11:35 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2022, 11:51 AM by ColoradoTree.)
Stanford finished #13 in the team rankings, which is useful, because it ensures they'll be a host for next year's ITA kick-off tournament, which gives them a better chance of advancing to ITA Indoor Nationals, which in turn gives them a better resume that should boost their ranking and seeding so they're more likely to host a Super Regional next year rather than having to go to Norman. Getting into the top 8 is so important now, and advancing to ITA Nationals is a key factor in getting there, especially with how relatively light this team schedules.
The draw for the ITA Kickoff Weekend women's tournament is tomorrow, while the men's draw is today (the Stanford men were the last host at #15, and their region was one of the first to fill up). As a reminder, ITA Kickoff Weekend consists of fifteen four-team regionals to determine the 15 teams that will join the host school at ITA Indoor Nationals.
It's one of my favorite tournament formats, because while the hosts are established due to being the top 15 teams in the year-end rankings, the rest of the teams decide where they go, in descending ranking order. So, the #16 team chooses where it wants to be the regional #2 seed, and then the #17 team picks its destination, and so on. Sometimes four-team regions will fill up before anyone goes near the top few seeds, as teams calculate and recalculate their best chances of advancing to Indoor Nationals depending on how the draft board falls. Teams can pass and opt out of the tournament, and this happens more often toward the end of the draw, as teams decide between, say, being the #4 seed and playing the defending national champion or just skipping it altogether and scheduling matches that weekend where they have a better chance of winning. For teams where success is measured by just making the NCAA tournament at the end of the season, they have a different calculus than national championship contenders. Travel costs matter for some of these schools, too, so a coach of a California school ranked in the 40s or 50s may reluctantly choose to come to Stanford or Cal or Pepperdine rather than fly across the country where their odds might be a bit higher.
I believe the University of Washington will host next year's women's indoor nationals (they're the highest-ranked team not listed in tomorrow's draft order and they've hosted in the past, including the men's event this past season), but I can't readily find public confirmation of that.
The ideal Kickoff Weekend situation, in my view, is to host good-but-not-great teams so that you still have an excellent chance of advancing, but where the wins are actually worth something. A few years back, teams stayed far away from Stanford, so we ended up with rematches of regular-season tilts against St. Mary's and Washington State, which didn't move the needle in terms of rankings. Out of our control, obviously, but that's what I'll be looking for with the draft tomorrow (which starts at 9am Pacific).
It'll be interesting to see which hosts the market deems vulnerable. While as the #13 team, we could expect to fill up sooner than other regionals, I think other teams will look at how little we lose and how freshman-heavy we were this year, and they might be leery of coming here.
For example, #15 Ohio State isn't just the lowest-ranked host, but they also lose its #2, #4, and #6 singles players, so teams will be eager to be the 2 seed there. #14 Auburn doesn't lose anyone in its top 4, but loses 5 and 6. #12 Georgia loses its 4 and 5. #11 Cal loses #4 Julia Rosenqvist, but that's it. #10 Oklahoma State loses its 1 and 3 lines, so expect Stillwater to be a place that fills up early. #9 Miami loses its 1, so maybe there, too. Anyway, you get the point.
Stanford returning 6 of their top 7, then, and adding a couple of blue chips, stands out in a positive way. (Texas and OU also return basically everyone, so folks won't be eager to go to Austin or Norman, that's for sure. And #3 UNC returns everyone but Cameron Morra, I believe.)
The draw for the ITA Kickoff Weekend women's tournament is tomorrow, while the men's draw is today (the Stanford men were the last host at #15, and their region was one of the first to fill up). As a reminder, ITA Kickoff Weekend consists of fifteen four-team regionals to determine the 15 teams that will join the host school at ITA Indoor Nationals.
It's one of my favorite tournament formats, because while the hosts are established due to being the top 15 teams in the year-end rankings, the rest of the teams decide where they go, in descending ranking order. So, the #16 team chooses where it wants to be the regional #2 seed, and then the #17 team picks its destination, and so on. Sometimes four-team regions will fill up before anyone goes near the top few seeds, as teams calculate and recalculate their best chances of advancing to Indoor Nationals depending on how the draft board falls. Teams can pass and opt out of the tournament, and this happens more often toward the end of the draw, as teams decide between, say, being the #4 seed and playing the defending national champion or just skipping it altogether and scheduling matches that weekend where they have a better chance of winning. For teams where success is measured by just making the NCAA tournament at the end of the season, they have a different calculus than national championship contenders. Travel costs matter for some of these schools, too, so a coach of a California school ranked in the 40s or 50s may reluctantly choose to come to Stanford or Cal or Pepperdine rather than fly across the country where their odds might be a bit higher.
I believe the University of Washington will host next year's women's indoor nationals (they're the highest-ranked team not listed in tomorrow's draft order and they've hosted in the past, including the men's event this past season), but I can't readily find public confirmation of that.
The ideal Kickoff Weekend situation, in my view, is to host good-but-not-great teams so that you still have an excellent chance of advancing, but where the wins are actually worth something. A few years back, teams stayed far away from Stanford, so we ended up with rematches of regular-season tilts against St. Mary's and Washington State, which didn't move the needle in terms of rankings. Out of our control, obviously, but that's what I'll be looking for with the draft tomorrow (which starts at 9am Pacific).
It'll be interesting to see which hosts the market deems vulnerable. While as the #13 team, we could expect to fill up sooner than other regionals, I think other teams will look at how little we lose and how freshman-heavy we were this year, and they might be leery of coming here.
For example, #15 Ohio State isn't just the lowest-ranked host, but they also lose its #2, #4, and #6 singles players, so teams will be eager to be the 2 seed there. #14 Auburn doesn't lose anyone in its top 4, but loses 5 and 6. #12 Georgia loses its 4 and 5. #11 Cal loses #4 Julia Rosenqvist, but that's it. #10 Oklahoma State loses its 1 and 3 lines, so expect Stillwater to be a place that fills up early. #9 Miami loses its 1, so maybe there, too. Anyway, you get the point.
Stanford returning 6 of their top 7, then, and adding a couple of blue chips, stands out in a positive way. (Texas and OU also return basically everyone, so folks won't be eager to go to Austin or Norman, that's for sure. And #3 UNC returns everyone but Cameron Morra, I believe.)