[Ohiocard]

I was listening to a podcast by The Athletic and they were speaking about what coaches have turned around programs recently and truly the only thing they had in common was that their #1 tool was the transfer portal. 

Let's say we let Shaw go after the season, at an average CFB program we would see 15-25 players transfer out and at least 1/2 the recruiting class decommit, but lets say the Stanford degree gives us a better chance to keep players. I would probably put the number of transfers at 10-15 and 1/3 of the recruiting class gone.

With the schools admission standards, zero access to the portal, and non-existent NIL program (retention tool)...

How many years will it take a new coach to make up for those losses?

1. Years.

2. Less than the most pessimistic transfer portal naysayers think because there is an 85 scholarship limit for all teams and the more other team rely on the transfer portal the more that vacates the high school recruiting playing field to us. We could/should be able to dominate high school recruiting in the new landscape.

P.S. Why would half the recruiting class decommit when players are now coming to Stanford for academics rather than football? Shaw makes sure that nobody comes to Stanford because of David Shaw or Stanford football. Whether he'd put it that way or not, he's proud of it. It is likely that subsequent year recruiting being bolstered by a new coach's more credible ability to sell a rebuild would outweigh immediate losses of players bailing because Shaw is gone.

P.P.S. Entering day dreaming territory: there is a world in which Shaw moving on coincides with Stanford taking the plunge to big boy football in the Big 10 and the shot of energy those twin factors provide the program dramatically reshape the feel, energy, and appeal of Stanford football. There is also a world in which Shaw continues to fail and Stanford chooses to opt out/recede from major college football. It may be wishful thinking but I still think the exciting former is more likely than the depressing latter.

I would push back on your #2 point on the portal. The transfer portal is a two way street where programs take quality transfers to fill team needs while ushering out players who have not developed as they would hoped. Most programs still try and sign around 20 HS prospects. 

That is why the portal and a major change in the program is going to hurt, Stanford is the only program in the country where the portal only points one way.
 So, when we look at candidates like Lance Leipold and others who have turned programs around, one of the major questions must be "how much of the success was due to their ability to find the right players out of the portal?" Which is a brobdingnagian skill to have at nearly every other program other than Stanford

[Ohiocard]

I was listening to a podcast by The Athletic and they were speaking about what coaches have turned around programs recently and truly the only thing they had in common was that their #1 tool was the transfer portal. 

Let's say we let Shaw go after the season, at an average CFB program we would see 15-25 players transfer out and at least 1/2 the recruiting class decommit, but lets say the Stanford degree gives us a better chance to keep players. I would probably put the number of transfers at 10-15 and 1/3 of the recruiting class gone.

With the schools admission standards, zero access to the portal, and non-existent NIL program (retention tool)...

How many years will it take a new coach to make up for those losses?

1. Years.

2. Less than the most pessimistic transfer portal naysayers think because there is an 85 scholarship limit for all teams and the more other team rely on the transfer portal the more that vacates the high school recruiting playing field to us. We could/should be able to dominate high school recruiting in the new landscape.

P.S. Why would half the recruiting class decommit when players are now coming to Stanford for academics rather than football? Shaw makes sure that nobody comes to Stanford because of David Shaw or Stanford football. Whether he'd put it that way or not, he's proud of it. It is likely that subsequent year recruiting being bolstered by a new coach's more credible ability to sell a rebuild would outweigh immediate losses of players bailing because Shaw is gone.

P.P.S. Entering day dreaming territory: there is a world in which Shaw moving on coincides with Stanford taking the plunge to big boy football in the Big 10 and the shot of energy those twin factors provide the program dramatically reshape the feel, energy, and appeal of Stanford football. There is also a world in which Shaw continues to fail and Stanford chooses to opt out/recede from major college football. It may be wishful thinking but I still think the exciting former is more likely than the depressing latter.

I would push back on your #2 point on the portal. The transfer portal is a two way street where programs take quality transfers to fill team needs while ushering out players who have not developed as they would hoped. Most programs still try and sign around 20 HS prospects. 

That is why the portal and a major change in the program is going to hurt, Stanford is the only program in the country where the portal only points one way.
 So, when we look at candidates like Lance Leipold and others who have turned programs around, one of the major questions must be "how much of the success was due to their ability to find the right players out of the portal?" Which is a brobdingnagian skill to have at nearly every other program other than Stanford