10-02-2022, 10:31 AM
6. Shaw talked in the press conference that we have "options" for addressing these failings and later seemed to clarify that he is not talking about benching players and instead is focused on ways to start games faster. I don't really know what this means and if it has bearing on the slow mesh experiment. The offense has laid an egg to start the year and I don't have faith in the brain trust to clean it up to an acceptable level, though Yurosek and the receivers have been so bad that reversion to the mean offers some hope. Against Oregon, there were two bright spots. The obvious one is Casey Filkins. I don't think he's a world-beater, but he runs with patience, wiggles and fights for yards crucial for first downs all-too-difficult for us to come up with otherwise, offers a good receiving target, and plays with heart. He's #5 in the Pac-12 in yards from scrimmage per game, in the ballpark with Austin Jones' 2020 as our most significant back in the last half decade. This week's moving the chains (first down) list: Filkins (6), Wilson (3), Higgins (2), Tremayne (2), Humphreys, Yurosek, Roush, Bowman, Daniels, Reuben. The second bright spot is less obvious: PFF assesses that the beleaguered right side of the offensive line - dealing with Bragg's retirement, Hinton's continued absence, and Miller's new injury (I assume season-ending or close given Shaw being immediately definitive it will be a "weeks" thing - the right side graded nicely. In fact, our fourth string right tackle, redshirt freshman Jack Leyrer, played the entire game after the first three plays (coming in when Miller got hurt) and came out of last night (his collegiate debut outside of two field goal unit plays last week) with the highest PFF grade of any Stanford player on either side of the ball yesterday. Rogers also graded nicely. Way to go Leyrer!
7. There were also individual performance bright spots on defense. Last week I mentioned that I track impact plays and nobody had more than two against Washington. Against Oregon, Sinclair (tackle for loss to force a field goal, tackle for no gain on 2nd and 12, interception), Bailey (five good tackles given down and distance including a tackle for loss, QB hurry/hitting the QB's hand to force the interception), Bonner (two pass breakups, tackle for loss, another good tackle given down and distance), and Armitage (albeit mostly garbage time) all had 3+ impact plays. Going forward, I'd like Sinclair to take snaps from his (horrible) linebacker compatriots. Bailey looks to be on a very good trajectory and is a very exciting prospect I hope stays at Stanford long enough to play great football. Bonner is having a solid year (I'm eating some crow on that one, though not my skepticism of Kelly and Turner-Muhammad, sadly validated). Armitage is a hit and miss player but his role is growing weekly and the day Herron is gone and Armitage takes those snaps will be a good one for the defense.
8. Special teams is fine but not a major asset. It was great to see Karty get on the board with his first two field goals of the season and a 53 yarder is awesome to see. Sanborn was very busy but only did ok, with net punts of 46, 30 (ugh), 43, 32 (before the penalty was assessed), 38, 47, and 39. Farrell never seems to get out to the 25 on kick returns, which begs the questions of why we return at all and why he's back there. With Farrell last in the Pac-12 in return average and Barrow showing burst on his garbage time return, I'd like to see Barrow get some chances.
9. Game balls: Leyrer, Bailey, Karty, Heffernan
10. The big question for our season, to the extent anybody still retains hope, is what kind of attitude and resilience the players have. So far, we've had three straight losses in which we've seen effort as the team battles in the second half. But how sustainable is it when players see that their best isn't even close to good enough? There may be some initial signs of fraying discipline and composure. Herron, Fields, and Armitage all had bad personal fouls to keep the defense on the field. I also think I see signs of a loser's mentality ossifying - players celebrating individual achievements in blowout losses, coaches and players alike moving on from any sort of pissed off for greatness/righteous anger to focusing on individual triumphs/learning opportunities, etc. From what we've seen so far, I don't know if I'd say Shaw has lost the team or that they've given up, but I imagine it's close. And if you can't compete even when you're giving your all that's just as damning.
11. Shaw says Oregon State isn't a must win. In a sense he's right for the reason he says - every game is vital, they're all important. In a self-preservation sense he may be trying to downplay the calamity of individual losses. But based on his body language in recent press conferences and on the sidelines I think it's equally likely he's past gaming for his own survival and understands, whether consciously or subconsciously, that it's too late. I suspect he's running out the string this year and will reflect when the season is done on what he probably already understands: his time is past. Until then, fans face the classic loser's dilemma of hoping against hope for surprise wins while knowing that abject failure may make the decision that needs to happen blessedly clearer for any stubborn holdouts (whether Muir, university leadership, or Shaw himself).
7. There were also individual performance bright spots on defense. Last week I mentioned that I track impact plays and nobody had more than two against Washington. Against Oregon, Sinclair (tackle for loss to force a field goal, tackle for no gain on 2nd and 12, interception), Bailey (five good tackles given down and distance including a tackle for loss, QB hurry/hitting the QB's hand to force the interception), Bonner (two pass breakups, tackle for loss, another good tackle given down and distance), and Armitage (albeit mostly garbage time) all had 3+ impact plays. Going forward, I'd like Sinclair to take snaps from his (horrible) linebacker compatriots. Bailey looks to be on a very good trajectory and is a very exciting prospect I hope stays at Stanford long enough to play great football. Bonner is having a solid year (I'm eating some crow on that one, though not my skepticism of Kelly and Turner-Muhammad, sadly validated). Armitage is a hit and miss player but his role is growing weekly and the day Herron is gone and Armitage takes those snaps will be a good one for the defense.
8. Special teams is fine but not a major asset. It was great to see Karty get on the board with his first two field goals of the season and a 53 yarder is awesome to see. Sanborn was very busy but only did ok, with net punts of 46, 30 (ugh), 43, 32 (before the penalty was assessed), 38, 47, and 39. Farrell never seems to get out to the 25 on kick returns, which begs the questions of why we return at all and why he's back there. With Farrell last in the Pac-12 in return average and Barrow showing burst on his garbage time return, I'd like to see Barrow get some chances.
9. Game balls: Leyrer, Bailey, Karty, Heffernan
10. The big question for our season, to the extent anybody still retains hope, is what kind of attitude and resilience the players have. So far, we've had three straight losses in which we've seen effort as the team battles in the second half. But how sustainable is it when players see that their best isn't even close to good enough? There may be some initial signs of fraying discipline and composure. Herron, Fields, and Armitage all had bad personal fouls to keep the defense on the field. I also think I see signs of a loser's mentality ossifying - players celebrating individual achievements in blowout losses, coaches and players alike moving on from any sort of pissed off for greatness/righteous anger to focusing on individual triumphs/learning opportunities, etc. From what we've seen so far, I don't know if I'd say Shaw has lost the team or that they've given up, but I imagine it's close. And if you can't compete even when you're giving your all that's just as damning.
11. Shaw says Oregon State isn't a must win. In a sense he's right for the reason he says - every game is vital, they're all important. In a self-preservation sense he may be trying to downplay the calamity of individual losses. But based on his body language in recent press conferences and on the sidelines I think it's equally likely he's past gaming for his own survival and understands, whether consciously or subconsciously, that it's too late. I suspect he's running out the string this year and will reflect when the season is done on what he probably already understands: his time is past. Until then, fans face the classic loser's dilemma of hoping against hope for surprise wins while knowing that abject failure may make the decision that needs to happen blessedly clearer for any stubborn holdouts (whether Muir, university leadership, or Shaw himself).