10-11-2022, 08:25 PM
Appreciate the analysis, that is very useful. I will admit the numbers are higher than I would have expected, given that your criteria for “turnaround artist” is fairly robust (ie, having to get to 8 wins multiple times). I think, with all the caveats you give, that your rule of thumb sounds pretty good (50/50 chance), and that P5 coaches are the best bet, and worth a call (I’m thinking someone like Chryst, unless there was a reason beyond one bad season for his firing), and if not G5 colleges.
Dereck Mason didn’t count because he wasn’t there to turn anything around (Franklin had been pretty successful)?
I don’t think it’s too early to say on Wilcox, but I guess given that he has one 8 win season in four chances (excluding 2020), you can reasonably wait a little longer. Still, he is under .500 overall and under .400 in the PAC-12. Since Wilcox was hired in 2017, David Shaw actually has more wins (30 to 29) (though that will undoubtably change in as few as two weeks) and substantially more PAC-12 wins (22 vs 16). Given that this includes three truly miserable years for Shaw, I think that says something about Wilcox.
BC
Dereck Mason didn’t count because he wasn’t there to turn anything around (Franklin had been pretty successful)?
I don’t think it’s too early to say on Wilcox, but I guess given that he has one 8 win season in four chances (excluding 2020), you can reasonably wait a little longer. Still, he is under .500 overall and under .400 in the PAC-12. Since Wilcox was hired in 2017, David Shaw actually has more wins (30 to 29) (though that will undoubtably change in as few as two weeks) and substantially more PAC-12 wins (22 vs 16). Given that this includes three truly miserable years for Shaw, I think that says something about Wilcox.
BC