[Goose]

Finally, as batteries decay their range will go down so it seems less likely that these cars will be kept as long or you need all new battery packs which have big carbon footprints.

There are two other important considerations with battery packs that IMHO are not getting appropriate consideration. First is the disposal/recycling of these battery packs. As of now, there isn't a significant industry in recycling them AFAIK. The elements in these batteries are pretty gnarly. They are difficult and expensive to work with. The material in the battery is potentially useful when recycled, but right now the environmental impact of doing so is very significant, so it isn't much happening. There is obviously an attendant cost and carbon footprint that has to be added to the above analysis.

The second problem is that many of the elements in the new battery technology are relatively rare. We have discussed this on the board previously, but in any case the extraction and purification of these "rare" elements is problematic. Right now, there is no "rare earth" purification going on in the US because you can't get permits to do it. Australia has a fairly large supply of these materials and had hoped to start refining them "soon". As of now, there are regulatory roadblocks that are supposedly making it "impossible". China is the major refiner of these ores. The Mountain Pass mine in the US ships there (when it is operating) because there is no alternative. If the world is going to use "a lot" of these batteries, this issue must be addressed IMHO.

[Goose]

Finally, as batteries decay their range will go down so it seems less likely that these cars will be kept as long or you need all new battery packs which have big carbon footprints.

There are two other important considerations with battery packs that IMHO are not getting appropriate consideration. First is the disposal/recycling of these battery packs. As of now, there isn't a significant industry in recycling them AFAIK. The elements in these batteries are pretty gnarly. They are difficult and expensive to work with. The material in the battery is potentially useful when recycled, but right now the environmental impact of doing so is very significant, so it isn't much happening. There is obviously an attendant cost and carbon footprint that has to be added to the above analysis.

The second problem is that many of the elements in the new battery technology are relatively rare. We have discussed this on the board previously, but in any case the extraction and purification of these "rare" elements is problematic. Right now, there is no "rare earth" purification going on in the US because you can't get permits to do it. Australia has a fairly large supply of these materials and had hoped to start refining them "soon". As of now, there are regulatory roadblocks that are supposedly making it "impossible". China is the major refiner of these ores. The Mountain Pass mine in the US ships there (when it is operating) because there is no alternative. If the world is going to use "a lot" of these batteries, this issue must be addressed IMHO.