[lex24]

I'm optimistic about 2023. I really like the Giants' FA moves so far, and they're not done. Not getting Judge or Correa isn't a dealbreaker for me. I think Correa would have been an absolute disaster -- he's a broken player. And Judge will be strong for another year or two, then tail off.

Here's why I am optimistic about the Giants in 2023:

1. In my view, 2022 was an outlier year to the negative side. They happen sometimes. The breaks don't go your way. I think we'll do better next year. I don't think they'll all have career years, although that's what happened in 2021, so there's precedent for career years for all starters. I think the Giants, with the new FAs, the new positioning rules, the shorter time pitchers have between pitches, Joc at DH instead of in the field, will improve the team's collective OPS to .750 from about .704. And if they have career years, their collective OPS might be north of .800.

2. And it wouldn't be a miracle for fielding to improve, it would be reverting to form. Last year, the Giants were 29th in MLB in fielding, but the year before they were 8th as measured by Rtot. The new positioning rules will benefit the Giants fielders. 

3. Just six more wins last season, and the Giants would have tied the Phillies with 87 wins (SF owned the series, 5-1) and would have made the playoffs. Seven more wins and they would have matched the 2014 WLS team's regular season win total.

4. The trend, BTW, points towards improvement--the Giants won 12 of their last 16 games, 16 of their last 24 and 20 of their last 33, including 2-8 against the Dodgers and Padres. In other words, they won 18 of their last 25 against the rest of the league in September and October. Don't forget, they don't play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times in 2022 (against whom they were a collective 10-28), in 2023 it's just 26, 13 games each.

5. They lose Rodon, but they gain DeSclefani, Stripling, Taylor and Manaea. They keep their strong relievers and will lose their weak ones.

6. Farhan's been in charge since 2019. The Giants' winning percentage has improved in three of the four years that he's been in charge. That's a pretty good track record -- and it would have been essentially impossible to improve on the .660 winning percentage from a 107-55 season. For everyone who thinks the Giants will win fewer than 81 games, well you're bucking a 75% improvement trend in favor of regression.

I think 2021 was outlier to the upside -- everything went right. 2022 was an outlier to the downside. Average pitching, average hitting, nearly the worst fielding in the league. I'm not even saying we finish in between the two win totals, which would be (107-81)/2 = 13 additional wins over the 81. I don't think they'll win 94.  But I think they can win 87 or more. And 87 would have put them in a six-team playoff four of the last five full seasons.

The new positioning rules will hurt the Giants defensively.  They were very good at using shifts. Slow.  Range issues.  Corners on infield a major issue.  Outfield will be better. But it’s still a questionable, at best, defense.  

September run is meaningless.  6 were against a Rockies team that quit. Schedule helped. And I never trust September for a non-contending team.

Giants will be fortunate to hold off DBacks for third in Division.

But your right, if a bunch of guys have career years, they could be a little better than average.

I wonder. I don't have 2022 stats, but in 2021, the Dodgers shifted the most in MLB, the Giants were 18th against lefties and 29th against righties. Sounds to me like the rules would hit the Dodgers more than the Giants. And in general, a shift ban will make power hitting lefties more valuable. Yastrzemski, Pederson, Wade, Crawford, should do well.

I can't recall who made the comment about the Giants being old and slow. I'll just mention that the four oldest teams in MLB are the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Giants. I think the fans of at least three of those teams should be very happy. And as far as slow is concerned, the Giants had the 5th best stolen base percentage in MLB, and grounded into the 12th fewest double plays.

Looking forward to the outcome of our bet... ;)

Giants were the slowest team in baseball last year. One of the slowest I’ve ever seen. Dead last in MLB getting runners waived from second on a single.  If you spent much time watching last year, you know how slow they were. They will be slow again this year.  A little less than last, but still slow.

At one point last year Giants defense  led league in outs added by shifts. Krukow often remarked on it. But do you really need metrics?  Davis/Wade/Flores at 1B. Estrada  2b. Craw SS. Villar/Flores/Davis at third. Besides Craw, that’s a poor infield.  Although I’m hopeful Estrada will improve. 

OF should be better. But it’s still, at best, average. Yaz very good in RF. Not as strong in CF. Slater is perplexing.  Good speed, good arm.  But he gets bad jumps - especially going back, takes bad angles and throws to the wrong base a lot. Haniger is, I believe an average RF.  At best. Ditto Conforto.  But average in LF will be a massive improvement.

Bart- jury is out. Wynns wasn’t bad. Pitchers seem to like him.

It’s simply not a good group defensively.  Infielders with more ground to cover is not going to help them. Add the fact that the pitching staff is full of guys that throw ground balls and “hit it to Crawford” is never more true.

Last, but not least, I’ll believe the Giants are serious about improving defense when they don’t move people all over the place, put whatever body they have in left field on occasion and do their continual line changes early on in games. It’s always about platooning to gain an offensive edge. Well, they pay a defensive price. They paid lip service about improving the defense last year. And then they stuck Yermin Mercedes in left field.

One thing that might help is picking up a left-handed hitting infielder that is strong defensively. Joey Wendle from Miami would fit the bill. They just signed Segura. So, he may be available. Not real strong bat. But he’s very good defensively and he can run

Said before - hope you win the bet   Frankly, most likely outcome is the middle.

[lex24]

I'm optimistic about 2023. I really like the Giants' FA moves so far, and they're not done. Not getting Judge or Correa isn't a dealbreaker for me. I think Correa would have been an absolute disaster -- he's a broken player. And Judge will be strong for another year or two, then tail off.

Here's why I am optimistic about the Giants in 2023:

1. In my view, 2022 was an outlier year to the negative side. They happen sometimes. The breaks don't go your way. I think we'll do better next year. I don't think they'll all have career years, although that's what happened in 2021, so there's precedent for career years for all starters. I think the Giants, with the new FAs, the new positioning rules, the shorter time pitchers have between pitches, Joc at DH instead of in the field, will improve the team's collective OPS to .750 from about .704. And if they have career years, their collective OPS might be north of .800.

2. And it wouldn't be a miracle for fielding to improve, it would be reverting to form. Last year, the Giants were 29th in MLB in fielding, but the year before they were 8th as measured by Rtot. The new positioning rules will benefit the Giants fielders. 

3. Just six more wins last season, and the Giants would have tied the Phillies with 87 wins (SF owned the series, 5-1) and would have made the playoffs. Seven more wins and they would have matched the 2014 WLS team's regular season win total.

4. The trend, BTW, points towards improvement--the Giants won 12 of their last 16 games, 16 of their last 24 and 20 of their last 33, including 2-8 against the Dodgers and Padres. In other words, they won 18 of their last 25 against the rest of the league in September and October. Don't forget, they don't play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times in 2022 (against whom they were a collective 10-28), in 2023 it's just 26, 13 games each.

5. They lose Rodon, but they gain DeSclefani, Stripling, Taylor and Manaea. They keep their strong relievers and will lose their weak ones.

6. Farhan's been in charge since 2019. The Giants' winning percentage has improved in three of the four years that he's been in charge. That's a pretty good track record -- and it would have been essentially impossible to improve on the .660 winning percentage from a 107-55 season. For everyone who thinks the Giants will win fewer than 81 games, well you're bucking a 75% improvement trend in favor of regression.

I think 2021 was outlier to the upside -- everything went right. 2022 was an outlier to the downside. Average pitching, average hitting, nearly the worst fielding in the league. I'm not even saying we finish in between the two win totals, which would be (107-81)/2 = 13 additional wins over the 81. I don't think they'll win 94.  But I think they can win 87 or more. And 87 would have put them in a six-team playoff four of the last five full seasons.

The new positioning rules will hurt the Giants defensively.  They were very good at using shifts. Slow.  Range issues.  Corners on infield a major issue.  Outfield will be better. But it’s still a questionable, at best, defense.  

September run is meaningless.  6 were against a Rockies team that quit. Schedule helped. And I never trust September for a non-contending team.

Giants will be fortunate to hold off DBacks for third in Division.

But your right, if a bunch of guys have career years, they could be a little better than average.

I wonder. I don't have 2022 stats, but in 2021, the Dodgers shifted the most in MLB, the Giants were 18th against lefties and 29th against righties. Sounds to me like the rules would hit the Dodgers more than the Giants. And in general, a shift ban will make power hitting lefties more valuable. Yastrzemski, Pederson, Wade, Crawford, should do well.

I can't recall who made the comment about the Giants being old and slow. I'll just mention that the four oldest teams in MLB are the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Giants. I think the fans of at least three of those teams should be very happy. And as far as slow is concerned, the Giants had the 5th best stolen base percentage in MLB, and grounded into the 12th fewest double plays.

Looking forward to the outcome of our bet... ;)

Giants were the slowest team in baseball last year. One of the slowest I’ve ever seen. Dead last in MLB getting runners waived from second on a single.  If you spent much time watching last year, you know how slow they were. They will be slow again this year.  A little less than last, but still slow.

At one point last year Giants defense  led league in outs added by shifts. Krukow often remarked on it. But do you really need metrics?  Davis/Wade/Flores at 1B. Estrada  2b. Craw SS. Villar/Flores/Davis at third. Besides Craw, that’s a poor infield.  Although I’m hopeful Estrada will improve. 

OF should be better. But it’s still, at best, average. Yaz very good in RF. Not as strong in CF. Slater is perplexing.  Good speed, good arm.  But he gets bad jumps - especially going back, takes bad angles and throws to the wrong base a lot. Haniger is, I believe an average RF.  At best. Ditto Conforto.  But average in LF will be a massive improvement.

Bart- jury is out. Wynns wasn’t bad. Pitchers seem to like him.

It’s simply not a good group defensively.  Infielders with more ground to cover is not going to help them. Add the fact that the pitching staff is full of guys that throw ground balls and “hit it to Crawford” is never more true.

Last, but not least, I’ll believe the Giants are serious about improving defense when they don’t move people all over the place, put whatever body they have in left field on occasion and do their continual line changes early on in games. It’s always about platooning to gain an offensive edge. Well, they pay a defensive price. They paid lip service about improving the defense last year. And then they stuck Yermin Mercedes in left field.

One thing that might help is picking up a left-handed hitting infielder that is strong defensively. Joey Wendle from Miami would fit the bill. They just signed Segura. So, he may be available. Not real strong bat. But he’s very good defensively and he can run

Said before - hope you win the bet   Frankly, most likely outcome is the middle.