[OutsiderFan]

Obviously in a one game sample, anomalous things can happen. This is why single elimination playoffs are scary. That said, the Niners appear to have two glaring statistical weaknesses that Seattle shouldn't be able to take advantage of based on how the teams have performed to date, but I fear is what will upend the Niners season before the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted by Kyle Shanahan.

Flat out, it is Red Zone Efficiency. I think it's been established that the Niners have had a tendency to blow coverages and haven't demonstrated the discipline to match the talent on their defense, but this has not hurt them very much to date. I believe Red Zone scoring is a much bigger problem, the rate at which they score and allow TDs on Red Zone possessions.

The Niners and Seahawks have the two worst TD scoring percentages in Red Zone of all 14 playoff teams. This wouldn't be bad for the Niners if they had a dominant Red Zone TD stopping defense. They don't. They actually allow a higher Red Zone TD% than they convert, with a -2% differential. And Seattle has the worst differential of all 14 playoff teams, with -12%. All the AFC contenders are much more proficient in the Red Zone than the Niners are, and so too are Philly and Dallas. Even KC, who has the second worst Red Zone TD prevention (67% allowed) in the NFL, actually has a +2% better differential because they convert Red Zone possessions into TDs 69% of the time, second only to Dal.

The stat that matters most for the Niners-Seahawks, IMO is Rush Differential. The Niners are +1.3 and Sea is -.06. for the season. The Niners were + 1.6 in the first game they dominated at home 27-7. Though they both allowed 5 YPC in Seattle - in a game not nearly as close as the 21-13 score indicated - Sea only ran it 14 times for 70 yards to the Niners 34 for 170. Not really debatable that the Niners are better at the LOS than Sea, and usually decides football games, all other things being equal.

[OutsiderFan]

Obviously in a one game sample, anomalous things can happen. This is why single elimination playoffs are scary. That said, the Niners appear to have two glaring statistical weaknesses that Seattle shouldn't be able to take advantage of based on how the teams have performed to date, but I fear is what will upend the Niners season before the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted by Kyle Shanahan.

Flat out, it is Red Zone Efficiency. I think it's been established that the Niners have had a tendency to blow coverages and haven't demonstrated the discipline to match the talent on their defense, but this has not hurt them very much to date. I believe Red Zone scoring is a much bigger problem, the rate at which they score and allow TDs on Red Zone possessions.

The Niners and Seahawks have the two worst TD scoring percentages in Red Zone of all 14 playoff teams. This wouldn't be bad for the Niners if they had a dominant Red Zone TD stopping defense. They don't. They actually allow a higher Red Zone TD% than they convert, with a -2% differential. And Seattle has the worst differential of all 14 playoff teams, with -12%. All the AFC contenders are much more proficient in the Red Zone than the Niners are, and so too are Philly and Dallas. Even KC, who has the second worst Red Zone TD prevention (67% allowed) in the NFL, actually has a +2% better differential because they convert Red Zone possessions into TDs 69% of the time, second only to Dal.

The stat that matters most for the Niners-Seahawks, IMO is Rush Differential. The Niners are +1.3 and Sea is -.06. for the season. The Niners were + 1.6 in the first game they dominated at home 27-7. Though they both allowed 5 YPC in Seattle - in a game not nearly as close as the 21-13 score indicated - Sea only ran it 14 times for 70 yards to the Niners 34 for 170. Not really debatable that the Niners are better at the LOS than Sea, and usually decides football games, all other things being equal.