[lex24]

The Bucs only ran the ball 12 times. That's a recipe for failure in the playoffs. Let's be honest. The only reason Dallas wasn't a big favorite was the Tom Brady resume, not what the Bucs had demonstrated with him playing this season. Had the Bucs started a random 45 year old QB with the same team stats in that game as they put up with Brady, Dallas would have been favored by 10+. But it's a testament to how inconsistent Dallas is and how little trust the public has in that team that most people expected a close game, and couldn't rule out a Bucs upset.

I like how the Niners CBs matchup against the Dallas WRs. And apparently, the Niners gave up the 5th fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2022, so they are prepared to handle Dalton Schultz one would think.

The thing that concerns me most about Dallas is they are the #1 Red Zone TD scoring team in the NFL. The Niners - as mentioned earlier in this thread - are not great at scoring TDs or stopping them from being scored in Red Zone. Dallas had 4 TDs in 4 Red Zone opportunities vs. Tampa Bay. I know it's an obvious statement, but the Niners are best served limiting the number of trips Dallas has into the Red Zone. Sometimes giving up yards between the 20s and relying on Red Zone defense, is a sound strategy.  It's not against Dallas.

The Niners and Cowboys both convert and stop 3rd down at about the same clip. The Niners are #1 in turnover margin, but this isn't an advantage c as Dallas is #2. So this game will likely come down to Red Zone TD efficiency, which scares the crap out of me. One thing that mitigates the Niners' RZ inefficiency, however, is the sheer number of times they get there vs. their opponents.

Since Purdy took over for Garopppolo, Niners TDs in RZ and allowed in RZ:
17/33 scored = 51% TD - Below average percentage
9/15 allowed = 60% TD - Well below average percentage

-9% Red Zone TD efficiency on 18 more opportunities than opponents

Dallas RZ TD scoring over same stretch:
22/27 scored = 81% TD - Elite percentage
13/26 allowed = 50% allowed - Above average percentage

+31% Red Zone TD Efficiency on 1 more opportunity than opponents

Obviously, the Niners +18 RZ tries is kind of a big outlier here. Even with below average RZ efficiency over the last 7 games, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by 16.4 PPG, almost a full TD more than their league leading season average point differential. So the Red Zone efficiency difference may not matter much. It's still my biggest concern going into the Division round, however, and why I'm not as confident the Niners will prevail against Dallas as I was against Seattle.

Micah Parsons. He’s a force.  He will line up all over the field.  But I suspect he will attack the edge off the right side.   McGlinchy.  

 Prescott.  Inconsistent.  But when he’s good, he’s very good. 

 Pollard/Elliott.  Speed in Pollard. Power in Elliott. 
 Those are my biggest concerns.

[lex24]

The Bucs only ran the ball 12 times. That's a recipe for failure in the playoffs. Let's be honest. The only reason Dallas wasn't a big favorite was the Tom Brady resume, not what the Bucs had demonstrated with him playing this season. Had the Bucs started a random 45 year old QB with the same team stats in that game as they put up with Brady, Dallas would have been favored by 10+. But it's a testament to how inconsistent Dallas is and how little trust the public has in that team that most people expected a close game, and couldn't rule out a Bucs upset.

I like how the Niners CBs matchup against the Dallas WRs. And apparently, the Niners gave up the 5th fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2022, so they are prepared to handle Dalton Schultz one would think.

The thing that concerns me most about Dallas is they are the #1 Red Zone TD scoring team in the NFL. The Niners - as mentioned earlier in this thread - are not great at scoring TDs or stopping them from being scored in Red Zone. Dallas had 4 TDs in 4 Red Zone opportunities vs. Tampa Bay. I know it's an obvious statement, but the Niners are best served limiting the number of trips Dallas has into the Red Zone. Sometimes giving up yards between the 20s and relying on Red Zone defense, is a sound strategy.  It's not against Dallas.

The Niners and Cowboys both convert and stop 3rd down at about the same clip. The Niners are #1 in turnover margin, but this isn't an advantage c as Dallas is #2. So this game will likely come down to Red Zone TD efficiency, which scares the crap out of me. One thing that mitigates the Niners' RZ inefficiency, however, is the sheer number of times they get there vs. their opponents.

Since Purdy took over for Garopppolo, Niners TDs in RZ and allowed in RZ:
17/33 scored = 51% TD - Below average percentage
9/15 allowed = 60% TD - Well below average percentage

-9% Red Zone TD efficiency on 18 more opportunities than opponents

Dallas RZ TD scoring over same stretch:
22/27 scored = 81% TD - Elite percentage
13/26 allowed = 50% allowed - Above average percentage

+31% Red Zone TD Efficiency on 1 more opportunity than opponents

Obviously, the Niners +18 RZ tries is kind of a big outlier here. Even with below average RZ efficiency over the last 7 games, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by 16.4 PPG, almost a full TD more than their league leading season average point differential. So the Red Zone efficiency difference may not matter much. It's still my biggest concern going into the Division round, however, and why I'm not as confident the Niners will prevail against Dallas as I was against Seattle.

Micah Parsons. He’s a force.  He will line up all over the field.  But I suspect he will attack the edge off the right side.   McGlinchy.  

 Prescott.  Inconsistent.  But when he’s good, he’s very good. 

 Pollard/Elliott.  Speed in Pollard. Power in Elliott. 
 Those are my biggest concerns.