[TheFarm07]

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 



to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.



and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 



and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.



so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

I generally agree with your analysis.  However, we should not forget that Kiana was not her usual self during our championship run.  She had been worn down from overuse going into the NCAAs, and her production had waned.  Her overall ppg had gone down a little in her senior year and actually dropped below what she did sophomore and junior years.  Here are her point totals for her last seven games:

26 UCLA Pac 12 championship game
20 First round
13 Second round
16 Third round
14 Louisville
8 South Carolina
5 Arizona

I loved Kiana and she was a very important piece of our national championship puzzle, but she wore down and frankly she struggled when she came up against top defenders like Aari McDonald and the Cooke/Henderson duo that South Carolina had.  For several games leading up to the championship there was much concern on this board, and in the press, that Williams was not her old self and that winning a championship might not be possible without her production improving.  It didn't, and we won anyway.  Of course, I think those two 50/50 games would have broken wide open had Williams been at her best. 

But that is the way of it.  Sometimes a very good player "goes off" and becomes as unstoppable as the best superstar.  Sometimes a superstar has a bad night or a bad matchup.  You need depth to be prepared for those situations.  We do have that, but I agree that we lack a superstar small guard which would make a natty so much easier, but not impossible.

I would put an addendum on your analysis regarding Kiana in that though I agree especially in the last two rounds, she struggled, her ability to create off the bounce and hit some clutch & difficult shots were crucial in key moments, especially when the shot clock was winding down. She was able to be a threat on all three levels (3-pointers, midrange, and drives to the basket). Even her ability to survey the situation and then just go for the three can be a critical additional offensive element that we really don't have now.

Defenses had to respect her and that allowed Jones, Lexie and Brink more room to operate.

[TheFarm07]

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 



to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.



and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 



and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.



so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

I generally agree with your analysis.  However, we should not forget that Kiana was not her usual self during our championship run.  She had been worn down from overuse going into the NCAAs, and her production had waned.  Her overall ppg had gone down a little in her senior year and actually dropped below what she did sophomore and junior years.  Here are her point totals for her last seven games:

26 UCLA Pac 12 championship game
20 First round
13 Second round
16 Third round
14 Louisville
8 South Carolina
5 Arizona

I loved Kiana and she was a very important piece of our national championship puzzle, but she wore down and frankly she struggled when she came up against top defenders like Aari McDonald and the Cooke/Henderson duo that South Carolina had.  For several games leading up to the championship there was much concern on this board, and in the press, that Williams was not her old self and that winning a championship might not be possible without her production improving.  It didn't, and we won anyway.  Of course, I think those two 50/50 games would have broken wide open had Williams been at her best. 

But that is the way of it.  Sometimes a very good player "goes off" and becomes as unstoppable as the best superstar.  Sometimes a superstar has a bad night or a bad matchup.  You need depth to be prepared for those situations.  We do have that, but I agree that we lack a superstar small guard which would make a natty so much easier, but not impossible.

I would put an addendum on your analysis regarding Kiana in that though I agree especially in the last two rounds, she struggled, her ability to create off the bounce and hit some clutch & difficult shots were crucial in key moments, especially when the shot clock was winding down. She was able to be a threat on all three levels (3-pointers, midrange, and drives to the basket). Even her ability to survey the situation and then just go for the three can be a critical additional offensive element that we really don't have now.

Defenses had to respect her and that allowed Jones, Lexie and Brink more room to operate.