01-26-2023, 09:51 AM
Just because the Niners have a poor record against running QBs, it doesn't mean that makes them lose games as a result.
As you guys know by now, my favorite stat to predict winners and losers of football games is rush differential. The Niners had that edge on Cowboys. They also have it on the Eagles (by a wider margin than they did Cowboys).
For all the talk of how great the Eagles are at running the ball, the fact is the Niners and Eagles have both averaged 4.7 YPC this season. But, while the Niners have allowed 3.4 YPC to lead the NFL (tied with Tennessee) for fewest, the Eagles are giving up 4.7 YPC. IOW, as a team the Eagles have a 0 rush yards per carry differential. The Niners have a +1.3 per carry differential over their opponents. And though the Eagles averaged a whopping 6.1 YPC against the Giants in their first playoff game, they gave up an equally whopping 5.9 YPC. The difference was the Giants only ran it 20 times to the Eagles' 44.
The team that gave the Niners the most trouble against the run this year was the Falcons, a team with a running QB in Mariota. They ran 40 times for 168 and the Niners only 16 for 50 yards. Of course, the Niners were missing 9 starters in that game and it was pre-McCaffrey and Purdy, which makes a difference because they only scored 14 and couldn't sustain drives at all because they turned the ball over 3 times and were -3.
I feel confident saying the team with the most rushing attempts will win the NFC Championship on Sunday. I don't feel confident predicting which team that will be.
As you guys know by now, my favorite stat to predict winners and losers of football games is rush differential. The Niners had that edge on Cowboys. They also have it on the Eagles (by a wider margin than they did Cowboys).
For all the talk of how great the Eagles are at running the ball, the fact is the Niners and Eagles have both averaged 4.7 YPC this season. But, while the Niners have allowed 3.4 YPC to lead the NFL (tied with Tennessee) for fewest, the Eagles are giving up 4.7 YPC. IOW, as a team the Eagles have a 0 rush yards per carry differential. The Niners have a +1.3 per carry differential over their opponents. And though the Eagles averaged a whopping 6.1 YPC against the Giants in their first playoff game, they gave up an equally whopping 5.9 YPC. The difference was the Giants only ran it 20 times to the Eagles' 44.
The team that gave the Niners the most trouble against the run this year was the Falcons, a team with a running QB in Mariota. They ran 40 times for 168 and the Niners only 16 for 50 yards. Of course, the Niners were missing 9 starters in that game and it was pre-McCaffrey and Purdy, which makes a difference because they only scored 14 and couldn't sustain drives at all because they turned the ball over 3 times and were -3.
I feel confident saying the team with the most rushing attempts will win the NFC Championship on Sunday. I don't feel confident predicting which team that will be.