02-08-2023, 01:51 PM
Our team has a brobdingnagian challenge ahead. We have 6 ggames left in the regular season; at the AZ schools this weekend, home vs the LA schools, and last weekend at the Mt schools. Not only are we at a disadvantage having 4 of the last 6 on the road, 5 of the 6 games are against the five of the teams closest to us in the standings. Only ASU can be thought of as mor or less a gimme. The loss at UW really hurt as it gave us no room for error. We are tied with Utah and only one game ahead of CU, and both teams have an easier schedule left. They play the AZ schools so that is a wash. And though WSU and UW (playing better lately) are decent teams, Utah and CU get them at home, and the LA schools we have to face are better. That leaves the last weekend in SLC and Boulder. Utah and CU have the advantage at home plus they get to play Cal. So we have two tough away games against our closest competition in the standings and Utah and CU can probably coast agst Cal.
Then we have the P12 tournament. Barring a total collapse of our team, we will finish in the top 4 and get a first round bye, even if Utah or CU or AZ pulls off a fantastic run the next 6 games and wins the regualr season. With the overall quality of the conference this year, winning the P12 tournament will be a feat for the eventual winner. Our team cannot expect to be an easy favorite especially if we get seeded lower than #1. But regardless of seed, there are 10 teams that can win against any other team on a given night.
Then we have the NCAAs. Creme currently has us still as a #1 seed. He said we are the final 1 seed - oddly though as the last 1 seed, I actually think our bracket is easieer than the other #1 seeds. However, However, if lose two or more games in P12 competition, perhaps only one more, we get knocked out of the #1 seed, but hopefully stay in the #16 to get home games in the first and second rounds. But none of this is a given and we know that there are a number of quality teams that could beat us. No guarantees obviously, but we should make the Sweet 16. Beyond that it could be a crap shoot.
So, winning the P12 regular season, the P12 tournament, and at least advancing to the Final Four (our minimum goal) are very much up in the air, and with the play of the team in recent games and our schedule ahead, it's not unreasoanble to think that the odds are against us to achieve any of those accomplishments.
If this team, which has been ranked #2 most all season and almost #1, hopes to achieve the lofty goals from preseason on, it is time for the team to step up. The team needs to prove that it is truly elite and dominant. The team has to show that it can and will beat quality teams, and do so one after the other. It needs to have the swagger to say "Bring on your best and we will defeat you" and then do so. The team has to make opponents fear playing Stanford, rather then harboring thoughts that they can upset us and take down the "big dog". This means that the coaches really have to get their act together with lineups, rotations, strategies, and preparation. The players need to really dig in, work hard, and raise their level of energy and intensity EVERY game znd EVERY possession - no time to rest or coast now. They need to be confident, assertive, and aggressive. They need to live up to their potential and use their Stanford smarts on the court. We have discussed at length the weaknesses or pitfalls for the team and other observers have noted the same, so we know the concerns.
Despite the uphill challenges ahead of the team which make me pessimistic, I do see reasons for optimism:
1. In Brink and Jones, we have two bona fide, legit All American players. At any level of basketball, we know that just one superstar player can carry a team and make it a winner/champion. We have two. Throughout the season, there haven't been that many games where it's been virtually the Brink-Jones show. Mostly, one or the other has been the major performer. Part of the reason is how teams have played us, but I also think part is due to Cam and/or Haley deferring to other players so as get the others involved and contributing so it wouldn't be just the duo. Cam and Haley are very capable of together taking over and dominating games and now is the tiem to do it. At this point, I'm not worried about them being the highest scorers and rebounders for both teams in every game going forward - give me 20+ pts. and 10-20 rebounds for them each game and the odds of us winning out go way up.
2. Jump's slump will stop. She is too good of a natural shooter and works too hard for her to continue her shooting woes. She will staerting hitting again, regain confidence, and quit pressing. More importantly, if Brink and Jones really assert themselves, teams will have to loosen up somewhat on Hannah. That will give her more open shots.
3. I have to believe that Lepolo's ankle is healing more each day. She hasn't been as qucik and decisive since the injury. I think it's part of why the team hasn't seemed as fast paced as earlier. If she returns to form, she is a quality PG in terms of excellent ballhandling, above average passing, and she has shown to make a good percentage of shots when she takes them. More importantly, Nivar has been given more minutes and is responding. That not only allows Lepolo to get some rest, but gives Tara more options.
4. Guard play is critical in late season and postseason, and frankly I don't think we match up compared to the top opponents we have ahead of us. We're not bad, but our opponents are better inthe backcourt. However, I still beleive that we have the best big players in the country and at depth. And as undefeated So Carolina has proven, if you have several quality big players who can score and dominate the boards, you can win with an above average but not super backcourt. Our bigs matched up with SC's and controlled most of the game. Our bigs need to step up and dominate going forward. On O, they need to attack the basket often and get second chance putbacks with O rebounds. On D, every opponent should get challenged and stuffed in the paint and fear trying to go agst our post players. With the incredible depth in the post that we have, there should be no reason not to be really aggressive and worry about fouls except for Brink whose value is also so high on the O end. If our bigs step up, it wil relieve pressure on our wings and guards and they will perform better. Our strength is our bigs, we need to impose that strength. Teams should have to try and mathc up us rather than us trying to match up with them.
Withthe above in mind, I would like to see 2 bigs on the court all the time with at least one big being a capable 3 point or mid range shooter. For O, I would have Haley play what would be considered a 4 and one of the two bigs playing what might be considered a 3 but also lots of high low post action with the two bigs. On D, Haley would guard the opponent's 3 and the 2 bigs control the paint. With 2 strong post players guarding the paint and not having to pack the paint, we should force teams to become almost exclusively jump shooters from further out. I like our odds that way. One thing we have to guard agst is the opponents pressuring us and playing physical and aggressive to cause us turnovers. Our players need to be equally or more aggressive positioning, catching, and going for balls - and every player needs to be careful on their passes - no lazy ones. If we don't give up easy transition baskets, I like our chances very much to holding opponents scoring and shooting percentages way down.
Then we have the P12 tournament. Barring a total collapse of our team, we will finish in the top 4 and get a first round bye, even if Utah or CU or AZ pulls off a fantastic run the next 6 games and wins the regualr season. With the overall quality of the conference this year, winning the P12 tournament will be a feat for the eventual winner. Our team cannot expect to be an easy favorite especially if we get seeded lower than #1. But regardless of seed, there are 10 teams that can win against any other team on a given night.
Then we have the NCAAs. Creme currently has us still as a #1 seed. He said we are the final 1 seed - oddly though as the last 1 seed, I actually think our bracket is easieer than the other #1 seeds. However, However, if lose two or more games in P12 competition, perhaps only one more, we get knocked out of the #1 seed, but hopefully stay in the #16 to get home games in the first and second rounds. But none of this is a given and we know that there are a number of quality teams that could beat us. No guarantees obviously, but we should make the Sweet 16. Beyond that it could be a crap shoot.
So, winning the P12 regular season, the P12 tournament, and at least advancing to the Final Four (our minimum goal) are very much up in the air, and with the play of the team in recent games and our schedule ahead, it's not unreasoanble to think that the odds are against us to achieve any of those accomplishments.
If this team, which has been ranked #2 most all season and almost #1, hopes to achieve the lofty goals from preseason on, it is time for the team to step up. The team needs to prove that it is truly elite and dominant. The team has to show that it can and will beat quality teams, and do so one after the other. It needs to have the swagger to say "Bring on your best and we will defeat you" and then do so. The team has to make opponents fear playing Stanford, rather then harboring thoughts that they can upset us and take down the "big dog". This means that the coaches really have to get their act together with lineups, rotations, strategies, and preparation. The players need to really dig in, work hard, and raise their level of energy and intensity EVERY game znd EVERY possession - no time to rest or coast now. They need to be confident, assertive, and aggressive. They need to live up to their potential and use their Stanford smarts on the court. We have discussed at length the weaknesses or pitfalls for the team and other observers have noted the same, so we know the concerns.
Despite the uphill challenges ahead of the team which make me pessimistic, I do see reasons for optimism:
1. In Brink and Jones, we have two bona fide, legit All American players. At any level of basketball, we know that just one superstar player can carry a team and make it a winner/champion. We have two. Throughout the season, there haven't been that many games where it's been virtually the Brink-Jones show. Mostly, one or the other has been the major performer. Part of the reason is how teams have played us, but I also think part is due to Cam and/or Haley deferring to other players so as get the others involved and contributing so it wouldn't be just the duo. Cam and Haley are very capable of together taking over and dominating games and now is the tiem to do it. At this point, I'm not worried about them being the highest scorers and rebounders for both teams in every game going forward - give me 20+ pts. and 10-20 rebounds for them each game and the odds of us winning out go way up.
2. Jump's slump will stop. She is too good of a natural shooter and works too hard for her to continue her shooting woes. She will staerting hitting again, regain confidence, and quit pressing. More importantly, if Brink and Jones really assert themselves, teams will have to loosen up somewhat on Hannah. That will give her more open shots.
3. I have to believe that Lepolo's ankle is healing more each day. She hasn't been as qucik and decisive since the injury. I think it's part of why the team hasn't seemed as fast paced as earlier. If she returns to form, she is a quality PG in terms of excellent ballhandling, above average passing, and she has shown to make a good percentage of shots when she takes them. More importantly, Nivar has been given more minutes and is responding. That not only allows Lepolo to get some rest, but gives Tara more options.
4. Guard play is critical in late season and postseason, and frankly I don't think we match up compared to the top opponents we have ahead of us. We're not bad, but our opponents are better inthe backcourt. However, I still beleive that we have the best big players in the country and at depth. And as undefeated So Carolina has proven, if you have several quality big players who can score and dominate the boards, you can win with an above average but not super backcourt. Our bigs matched up with SC's and controlled most of the game. Our bigs need to step up and dominate going forward. On O, they need to attack the basket often and get second chance putbacks with O rebounds. On D, every opponent should get challenged and stuffed in the paint and fear trying to go agst our post players. With the incredible depth in the post that we have, there should be no reason not to be really aggressive and worry about fouls except for Brink whose value is also so high on the O end. If our bigs step up, it wil relieve pressure on our wings and guards and they will perform better. Our strength is our bigs, we need to impose that strength. Teams should have to try and mathc up us rather than us trying to match up with them.
Withthe above in mind, I would like to see 2 bigs on the court all the time with at least one big being a capable 3 point or mid range shooter. For O, I would have Haley play what would be considered a 4 and one of the two bigs playing what might be considered a 3 but also lots of high low post action with the two bigs. On D, Haley would guard the opponent's 3 and the 2 bigs control the paint. With 2 strong post players guarding the paint and not having to pack the paint, we should force teams to become almost exclusively jump shooters from further out. I like our odds that way. One thing we have to guard agst is the opponents pressuring us and playing physical and aggressive to cause us turnovers. Our players need to be equally or more aggressive positioning, catching, and going for balls - and every player needs to be careful on their passes - no lazy ones. If we don't give up easy transition baskets, I like our chances very much to holding opponents scoring and shooting percentages way down.