(03-30-2023, 03:46 PM)stopandpop Wrote: Unless Tara restructures the offense (which I doubt she'll consider) or she lands a great experienced (productive) scoring guard via the portal (which I doubt she will use), I have trouble envisioning the 2023-2024 team getting to the Sweet 16, even with a player of Brink's caliber.I am more optimistic about next year:
Physical teams, teams that pressured us, and teams with exceptional guards who broke down our perimeter defenses and scored - gave us trouble last season and I don't see how the players coming back and newcomers will change that equation, unless their skill sets improve significantly over the summer. We were unable to get to the Seattle Regional with two All-Americans and the Defensive Player of the Year. If you step back and think about that, you realize that significant change must happen somewhere, especially with the offense that Tara likes to run.
Next March, I would love to be proven wrong on all counts.
Brink is a returning consensus All-American.
Betts shot 60% as a freshman (admittedly playing quite a bit late in the games) and averaged per 40 minutes: PTS-24.2; RBDS-14.4; A-2.0; S-0.6; B-3.6, PF-1.4; TO-2.0. And her play improved over the course of the season. And if our guards and wings will start shooting more 3s, Betts assists will go up - her inside-out passing is excellent. Some may say her game is not pretty, but she will be a weapon next year.
Iriafen: It was weird use of her this year, but what a great athlete to have available and hopefully use more productively next year
The point of the above is that I think Stanford has the best posts in the country next year. Offensively and defensively.
PG: Lepolo will be solid with a year behind her. She gets the ball up the floor and can make some great passes. She made too many mistakes late in the year but ended up with 125 As vs 65 TOs. I think she can get that ratio to 2.5 or better. Her D needs to improve but she seems not to get into foul trouble. Nivar can sub at PG as needed.
3 PT Shooting: HJ: 44%; AE-N: 42% (only 19 attempts); TL: 37%; BD: 33%; EB: 32%. With the strength of the posts, and 1 defender having to devote 100% to shadowing Jump, Emma-Nopu, Lepolo, Bosgana, and Demetre are going to get a LOT of open looks. They need to, and will (since the team can't just depend on Haley making something happen as the shot clock winds down) shoot more threes (and earlier in the possession). I think Lepolo's and Demetre's 3PT% will improve as a result to close to or above 40%. (I am less confident that Bosgana's % will but we can hope.)
Nivar: I think Indya is a big wild card. She has the potential of being really good: nice size/strength for a guard, smooth and athletic but shot 23% on 3PT shots (2PT%-51%) and had 35 As and 35 TOs. If she can improve her 3PT% and reduce the TOs, she could get a lot a minutes and average above 10 PTS and 6 RBs per game.
The D will be fine: The posts will lock down the interior; Emma-Nopu, Bosgana and Nivar will be solid and Demetre, Lepolo and Jump will do enough and play within the system.
Freshman: ?
So, is it a Sweet 16 team. Hell yes. They just need to win the first two tournament games.