[Mick]

I don't want to create a page-long post but this is a second response to Mick's "analysis" of Bailey. Since you continue to perpetuate blah blah blah...

And yet you did, actually create more than a page-long post.  Two pages on my printer... 

This is my final response to your so-called "analysis" of my comments. It seems crucially important for you to have the last word, so have at it. I'm sorry you had such difficulty understanding my comments. You certainly misinterpreted my meaning. So in my last response before you become literally the only Cardboard member that I've blocked, I'll stick to the facts:

1. I said the ACC had the 3rd best RPI in 2020, the year that Bailey was drafted. That is a fact. You responded by pointing to 2022, a year that Patrick Bailey didn't play in the ACC. Misleading.

2. I referred to Bailey's $3.8 mms. as representing a 10% discount. It's very close to 10% and you know it. And it is $397k, which is not insignificant for a recent college graduate. And you ignored the fact that I pointed out, that the vast majority of 1st round picks didn't sign for in excess of $397k less than their slot, which Bailey did, as did five other SFG draftees so they could sign 3rd round pick Kyle Harrison at more than triple his recommended slot money. He signed for - Fact $2.497mms., which was more than 10 of the first rounders. That's a fact. This was my key point, and it was a fact and you chose to ignore it.

3. I discount college OPS because it doesn't translate directly into MLB power. I pay attention to college batting average, and Bailey's was slightly higher than average for the ACC, and that means he misses balls -- a LOT. So the fact is that he struck out 72 times in 267 ABs in his second year in A+. So...no. It doesn't surprise me that the fact is that Bailey batted .225 with an OPS of .761 in high A+.

4. Yes, like Schmitt, he won the minor league Gold Glove. He's an excellent fielder. I never said he wasn't, and in fact I mentioned it on this board immediately after he and Schmitt won the minor league Gold Gloves.

5. Bailey hit .321 as a freshman with an OPS of 1.023 and then declined to a BA of .288 and an OPS of .903. It is a fact that he regressed. You chose to focus on his junior year, his COVID season and a schedule that was 85% non-ACC. NC State played just 17 games total that year, and 14 of them were against James Madison (three games with their #123 RPI), Longwood (#294), five games against Tennessee Tech (#266), and one game each against Iowa (#38), Purdue (#133), Minnesota (#152) and Coastal Carolina (#33). The fact is that they only played three games against your vaunted ACC opponent, Virginia (RPI of #61)...and they lost two of those three. You're essentially comparing full season to a partial, non-ACC season, and I'm comparing his only two full seasons. You are misleading, not me. My comparison is apples to apples.

6. You said he's on every Top 10 Giants prospect list. And as the 2020 #1 pick, he darned well should be. That isn't saying much, for his draft and age and defensive ability he should be in the top two or three. But the fact is that you are wrong -- he is not on every Top 10 list:
Prospects1500, he's #24: San Francisco Giants Top 50 Prospects (2023) (prospects1500.com)
mlb.com, he's #11: Giants Top Prospects | MLB.com
theAthletic, he's #11: Giants top 20 prospects 2023: Keith Law ranks San Francisco’s minor league farm system - The Athletic
Sports Illustrated, #21: SF Giants prospect rankings: Top 42 prospects - Sports Illustrated San Francisco Giants News, Analysis and More
In fact, SI gave him a 40 rating, which equates to "MLB backup", not even a platoon player, and certainly not an everyday player. For a top-15 pick, I would have expected better.

Here's FanGraphs' list of the 2023 SF Giants minor leagures who are most imminently close to the major leagues. Three years after being the #13 pick in the draft, Bailey is not on this list. Prospect Report: Giants 2023 Imminent Big Leaguers | FanGraphs Baseball  And of the 15 college grads drafted among the Top 25 picks in 2020, 7 of them have already made the majors. 1st Round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

And to some of your other comments;

1) The MLB batting average in 2022 was .248. The position average for the 29 catchers you referenced was .239. In other words...not that different.
2) You said "Given his defensive bona fides if Bailey can get on-base even 28% of the time with any power at all he will be in the major leagues for 10-15 years." FACT: .280 OBP is the bottom six of those 29 guys. If his OBP is .280, he won't last 10 years in MLB.
3) You said "Given his platoon splits it seems probable that at a minimum he could do that in a part-time role." For the #13 overall draft pick, that's insufficient...but it is appropriate for a 3rd or 4th round pick.
4) You quoted me as writing "He hit .185 in 33 games in 2021 so he's a bust". I never said that or implied it. This is what I wrote: "And, not surprisingly, he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A." I didn't say or imply he was a bust. Don't put words in my mouth.
 
One final point. In spring training, Joey Bart's slash line was .214/.333/.393/.726. Bailey's was .286/.286/.357/.643. It's important to note that Bart faced pitchers that were considered to be stronger than those that faced Bailey (see link below). Bart is as imperfect as they come, but he still had a much higher slugging percentage and OPS than Bailey did...all while facing stronger pitching. And Blake Sabol outdistanced both, by a wide margin. Incidentally in spring training, Joey Bart didn't have any errors. But Sabol, Perez and Patrick Bailey each had two errors.
 
2023 San Francisco Giants Spring Training Pitching and Batting Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

We're not actually all that far apart.  You said "Giants fans should actually feel sanguine about Bailey. If he turns out to be an excellent defender and below average hitter (admittedly the most probable outcome) that has value in today's game. If he manages to fix his hitting from the left side (not impossible) than he would represent a clear win. The range of outcomes is still broad, but on the whole he's still a good prospect." 

My concern is that Patrick Bailey is exactly what I thought he would be, heading for a part-time MLB career. For the #13 overall pick, you hope for Posey, you'd be fine with Brenly, a one-time all star who never hit under .259 in the minors. You could even live with Kirt Manwaring. I'm concerned he (and Bart) will turn into Dann Bilardello.

So. Have the last word. I won't be reading it.

[Mick]

I don't want to create a page-long post but this is a second response to Mick's "analysis" of Bailey. Since you continue to perpetuate blah blah blah...

And yet you did, actually create more than a page-long post.  Two pages on my printer... 

This is my final response to your so-called "analysis" of my comments. It seems crucially important for you to have the last word, so have at it. I'm sorry you had such difficulty understanding my comments. You certainly misinterpreted my meaning. So in my last response before you become literally the only Cardboard member that I've blocked, I'll stick to the facts:

1. I said the ACC had the 3rd best RPI in 2020, the year that Bailey was drafted. That is a fact. You responded by pointing to 2022, a year that Patrick Bailey didn't play in the ACC. Misleading.

2. I referred to Bailey's $3.8 mms. as representing a 10% discount. It's very close to 10% and you know it. And it is $397k, which is not insignificant for a recent college graduate. And you ignored the fact that I pointed out, that the vast majority of 1st round picks didn't sign for in excess of $397k less than their slot, which Bailey did, as did five other SFG draftees so they could sign 3rd round pick Kyle Harrison at more than triple his recommended slot money. He signed for - Fact $2.497mms., which was more than 10 of the first rounders. That's a fact. This was my key point, and it was a fact and you chose to ignore it.

3. I discount college OPS because it doesn't translate directly into MLB power. I pay attention to college batting average, and Bailey's was slightly higher than average for the ACC, and that means he misses balls -- a LOT. So the fact is that he struck out 72 times in 267 ABs in his second year in A+. So...no. It doesn't surprise me that the fact is that Bailey batted .225 with an OPS of .761 in high A+.

4. Yes, like Schmitt, he won the minor league Gold Glove. He's an excellent fielder. I never said he wasn't, and in fact I mentioned it on this board immediately after he and Schmitt won the minor league Gold Gloves.

5. Bailey hit .321 as a freshman with an OPS of 1.023 and then declined to a BA of .288 and an OPS of .903. It is a fact that he regressed. You chose to focus on his junior year, his COVID season and a schedule that was 85% non-ACC. NC State played just 17 games total that year, and 14 of them were against James Madison (three games with their #123 RPI), Longwood (#294), five games against Tennessee Tech (#266), and one game each against Iowa (#38), Purdue (#133), Minnesota (#152) and Coastal Carolina (#33). The fact is that they only played three games against your vaunted ACC opponent, Virginia (RPI of #61)...and they lost two of those three. You're essentially comparing full season to a partial, non-ACC season, and I'm comparing his only two full seasons. You are misleading, not me. My comparison is apples to apples.

6. You said he's on every Top 10 Giants prospect list. And as the 2020 #1 pick, he darned well should be. That isn't saying much, for his draft and age and defensive ability he should be in the top two or three. But the fact is that you are wrong -- he is not on every Top 10 list:
Prospects1500, he's #24: San Francisco Giants Top 50 Prospects (2023) (prospects1500.com)
mlb.com, he's #11: Giants Top Prospects | MLB.com
theAthletic, he's #11: Giants top 20 prospects 2023: Keith Law ranks San Francisco’s minor league farm system - The Athletic
Sports Illustrated, #21: SF Giants prospect rankings: Top 42 prospects - Sports Illustrated San Francisco Giants News, Analysis and More
In fact, SI gave him a 40 rating, which equates to "MLB backup", not even a platoon player, and certainly not an everyday player. For a top-15 pick, I would have expected better.

Here's FanGraphs' list of the 2023 SF Giants minor leagures who are most imminently close to the major leagues. Three years after being the #13 pick in the draft, Bailey is not on this list. Prospect Report: Giants 2023 Imminent Big Leaguers | FanGraphs Baseball  And of the 15 college grads drafted among the Top 25 picks in 2020, 7 of them have already made the majors. 1st Round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

And to some of your other comments;

1) The MLB batting average in 2022 was .248. The position average for the 29 catchers you referenced was .239. In other words...not that different.
2) You said "Given his defensive bona fides if Bailey can get on-base even 28% of the time with any power at all he will be in the major leagues for 10-15 years." FACT: .280 OBP is the bottom six of those 29 guys. If his OBP is .280, he won't last 10 years in MLB.
3) You said "Given his platoon splits it seems probable that at a minimum he could do that in a part-time role." For the #13 overall draft pick, that's insufficient...but it is appropriate for a 3rd or 4th round pick.
4) You quoted me as writing "He hit .185 in 33 games in 2021 so he's a bust". I never said that or implied it. This is what I wrote: "And, not surprisingly, he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A." I didn't say or imply he was a bust. Don't put words in my mouth.
 
One final point. In spring training, Joey Bart's slash line was .214/.333/.393/.726. Bailey's was .286/.286/.357/.643. It's important to note that Bart faced pitchers that were considered to be stronger than those that faced Bailey (see link below). Bart is as imperfect as they come, but he still had a much higher slugging percentage and OPS than Bailey did...all while facing stronger pitching. And Blake Sabol outdistanced both, by a wide margin. Incidentally in spring training, Joey Bart didn't have any errors. But Sabol, Perez and Patrick Bailey each had two errors.
 
2023 San Francisco Giants Spring Training Pitching and Batting Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

We're not actually all that far apart.  You said "Giants fans should actually feel sanguine about Bailey. If he turns out to be an excellent defender and below average hitter (admittedly the most probable outcome) that has value in today's game. If he manages to fix his hitting from the left side (not impossible) than he would represent a clear win. The range of outcomes is still broad, but on the whole he's still a good prospect." 

My concern is that Patrick Bailey is exactly what I thought he would be, heading for a part-time MLB career. For the #13 overall pick, you hope for Posey, you'd be fine with Brenly, a one-time all star who never hit under .259 in the minors. You could even live with Kirt Manwaring. I'm concerned he (and Bart) will turn into Dann Bilardello.

So. Have the last word. I won't be reading it.