[Goose]

An all-out Hezbollah attack, probably with West Bank uprisings, could be very dangerous if timed when the IDF was bogged down in Gaza.  But I would have to ask for what strategic purpose?  Iran is likely to get what it wants even if the war does not expand.

Iran may believe it can compel Israel to seek terms with Hamas. It would be a big gamble, because Hezbollah may be permanently crippled if it doesn't work, but if Israel has to negotiate, it will make Iran much stronger politically with everybody in the middle east. It could also be that Iran hopes it can force the US to intervene directly. This is a much more dangerous course of action (for many reasons), but if it happens it will definitely cause a major breakdown in US political influence with any Muslim countries in the middle east. It could put the US in a "damned if you do,  damned if you don't" situation. Our domestic political situation is such that we really, really don't want to face such a choice.

Of course, my colleagues in I.R. think strategically and look for the reasons behind seemingly irrational actions.  I supposed there is a chance that the only reason for any of this is just hatred, revenge, and mayhem.  If so, events are even harder to predict.  But it seems awfully well coordinated and resourced.

It does indeed. Additionally, I don't believe the benefit/cost ratio to Iran justifies destroying their proxy in Gaza to prevent an Israel/Saudi agreement. Given the Saudi's absolute monarchy, they don't have to keep their word on anything. Their "alliance" with Israel will be one of convenience, not conviction. I can't imagine Iran is playing for those relatively low stakes. Of course, as you point out, it doesn't have to be "rational". Hamas may have just done it because they could with no real strategic aim.

[Goose]

An all-out Hezbollah attack, probably with West Bank uprisings, could be very dangerous if timed when the IDF was bogged down in Gaza.  But I would have to ask for what strategic purpose?  Iran is likely to get what it wants even if the war does not expand.

Iran may believe it can compel Israel to seek terms with Hamas. It would be a big gamble, because Hezbollah may be permanently crippled if it doesn't work, but if Israel has to negotiate, it will make Iran much stronger politically with everybody in the middle east. It could also be that Iran hopes it can force the US to intervene directly. This is a much more dangerous course of action (for many reasons), but if it happens it will definitely cause a major breakdown in US political influence with any Muslim countries in the middle east. It could put the US in a "damned if you do,  damned if you don't" situation. Our domestic political situation is such that we really, really don't want to face such a choice.

Of course, my colleagues in I.R. think strategically and look for the reasons behind seemingly irrational actions.  I supposed there is a chance that the only reason for any of this is just hatred, revenge, and mayhem.  If so, events are even harder to predict.  But it seems awfully well coordinated and resourced.

It does indeed. Additionally, I don't believe the benefit/cost ratio to Iran justifies destroying their proxy in Gaza to prevent an Israel/Saudi agreement. Given the Saudi's absolute monarchy, they don't have to keep their word on anything. Their "alliance" with Israel will be one of convenience, not conviction. I can't imagine Iran is playing for those relatively low stakes. Of course, as you point out, it doesn't have to be "rational". Hamas may have just done it because they could with no real strategic aim.