[Goose]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/17119...45757?s=20

Very important development if it happens. Egypt has thus far kept their borders closed, and as all the land borders with Israel are closed, Palestinians really have nowhere safe to go to avoid Israeli bombs. The IDF has not been really subtle in their public messaging that they are expecting and tolerating lots of civilian casualties.

Agree it is important, as getting civilians out is indeed a goal. I am not sure where in Egypt they can go however. It would be lots of people. I am also pretty sure Israel will want some assurance that Hamas fighters won't be among the people evacuated. Israel would probably still support an evacuation. An "empty" Gaza is what they want. The real trick would come when people are allowed to return. At that point, making sure Hamas is not among those returning will be a BIG issue. 

Equally important at present is that Egypt NOT allow military supplies to enter Gaza from Egypt. Right now, Egypt is at least ostensibly doing this. If that situation changes things could get uglier than they already are. How well Egypt will stand up to pressure from "the street" remains to be seen.

The one, possibly two, carrier groups going to the Eastern Med are clearly meant to try and dissuade other regional actors from getting involved.

Probably so, but it is unclear what the other "regional actors" would do. Syria is in such bad shape it really can't do much, and Iraq is in a similar state. It is unclear to me that the carrier air wings are going to slow down Hezbollah any, because that would require direct military intervention by the US in the conflict. Iran might like that just fine. Iran itself will only act via proxy forces so it will not be at risk (and the 5th fleet is who Iran would deal directly with anyway). IMO this deployment is a necessary "showing of concern" but it's military effect is very questionable.

[Goose]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/17119...45757?s=20

Very important development if it happens. Egypt has thus far kept their borders closed, and as all the land borders with Israel are closed, Palestinians really have nowhere safe to go to avoid Israeli bombs. The IDF has not been really subtle in their public messaging that they are expecting and tolerating lots of civilian casualties.

Agree it is important, as getting civilians out is indeed a goal. I am not sure where in Egypt they can go however. It would be lots of people. I am also pretty sure Israel will want some assurance that Hamas fighters won't be among the people evacuated. Israel would probably still support an evacuation. An "empty" Gaza is what they want. The real trick would come when people are allowed to return. At that point, making sure Hamas is not among those returning will be a BIG issue. 

Equally important at present is that Egypt NOT allow military supplies to enter Gaza from Egypt. Right now, Egypt is at least ostensibly doing this. If that situation changes things could get uglier than they already are. How well Egypt will stand up to pressure from "the street" remains to be seen.

The one, possibly two, carrier groups going to the Eastern Med are clearly meant to try and dissuade other regional actors from getting involved.

Probably so, but it is unclear what the other "regional actors" would do. Syria is in such bad shape it really can't do much, and Iraq is in a similar state. It is unclear to me that the carrier air wings are going to slow down Hezbollah any, because that would require direct military intervention by the US in the conflict. Iran might like that just fine. Iran itself will only act via proxy forces so it will not be at risk (and the 5th fleet is who Iran would deal directly with anyway). IMO this deployment is a necessary "showing of concern" but it's military effect is very questionable.