[OutsiderFan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/us/po...gence.html

The United States has collected multiple pieces of intelligence that show that key Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack in Israel, information that has fueled U.S. doubts that Iran played a direct role in planning the assault, according to several American officials.
The United States, Israel and key regional allies have not found evidence that Iran directly helped plan the attack, according to the U.S. officials, an Israeli official and another official in the Middle East.
While the U.S. officials would not identify the Iranian officials who expressed surprise at the attack, they said the Iranian officials were people who typically would be aware of operations involving the Quds Force, Iran’s paramilitary arm that supports and works with proxy forces.

Of course, part of the Israeli failure was their normal intelligence channels were all quiet/not talking about an attack before it happened. So maybe the Iranians are also just acting as well as Hamas was on their monitored comms.

You know Israel would love nothing more than to blame Iran for the Hamas attack. If it had any evidence linking the two, it would gladly attack Iran, especially with a hawk like Netenyahu in charge.

The fact U.S. intel says Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack underscores how critical it is to have a strong intelligence regime especially as it relates to sources and methods of collection. If the U.S. was "blind" it would be possible for Israel to say Iran was behind it. The fact the U.S. has exculpatory evidence for Iran to show Israel, ensured Israel wouldn't attack Iran and possibly ignite a larger war. Someone in U.S. intel would have leaked this to the press if Israel was angling to blame and attack Iran.

[OutsiderFan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/us/po...gence.html

The United States has collected multiple pieces of intelligence that show that key Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack in Israel, information that has fueled U.S. doubts that Iran played a direct role in planning the assault, according to several American officials.
The United States, Israel and key regional allies have not found evidence that Iran directly helped plan the attack, according to the U.S. officials, an Israeli official and another official in the Middle East.
While the U.S. officials would not identify the Iranian officials who expressed surprise at the attack, they said the Iranian officials were people who typically would be aware of operations involving the Quds Force, Iran’s paramilitary arm that supports and works with proxy forces.

Of course, part of the Israeli failure was their normal intelligence channels were all quiet/not talking about an attack before it happened. So maybe the Iranians are also just acting as well as Hamas was on their monitored comms.

You know Israel would love nothing more than to blame Iran for the Hamas attack. If it had any evidence linking the two, it would gladly attack Iran, especially with a hawk like Netenyahu in charge.

The fact U.S. intel says Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack underscores how critical it is to have a strong intelligence regime especially as it relates to sources and methods of collection. If the U.S. was "blind" it would be possible for Israel to say Iran was behind it. The fact the U.S. has exculpatory evidence for Iran to show Israel, ensured Israel wouldn't attack Iran and possibly ignite a larger war. Someone in U.S. intel would have leaked this to the press if Israel was angling to blame and attack Iran.