10-12-2023, 10:04 AM
I would suggest everyone read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Palestine. One thing that is immediately apparent is that over the last 2000+ years (at least), many different groups have "ruled" major parts of this area. The idea that "outsiders" are going to quit "meddling" seems very improbable at best. Further, the "outsiders" often became the majority in the area, so who is really an "outsider"? It is immediately apparent that being "right" matters not at all in the equation of who "wins". Whether it is Alexander's phalanx, X Fretensis, Mamluk cavalry, or the IDF the strongest force controls the land.
The idea of "trust" between the parties in such confrontations is specious. As long as the various "protagonists" exist, they will continue to struggle against each other. The only thing that brings "peace" in such a situation is the creation of a stable balance of power where both sides realize that armed conflict will not improve their situation. Both sides will be vigilant and maintain at least a military balance, because if they do not their opponent will eventually take advantage of the situation. It is certainly true that one side may be so far "down" in the fight that their risk tolerance is immense. They believe things are so bad, how much worse can they get? The opposite is also true. If one side believes the other is too weak to even attempt resistance, they will take advantage of the situation. It is not a matter of "if", it is a matter of "when".
This evaluation is pessimistic, but IMO it is just reality. The Palestinians have had ample opportunity to accept "defeat" and attempt to form a prosperous Palestinian state elsewhere in the middle east. They simply aren't going to do that it seems. They will accept only total victory. Is their "cause" a "just" one? IMO it doesn't really matter either way. They are pursuing it. That doesn't mean terrorism and atrocities are "acceptable" but it does mean this conflict won't end as long as both sides exist. Really, really sad, but IMO that is the way it is.
It is tempting to hope that "outside forces" could intervene and force both sides to "stay in their corners". To some extent, the cold war did that. However, even then the conflict simmered. Outside political and economic forces can suppress the conflict, but they can't make it go away. It is also highly unlikely that those "outside forces" will remain in agreement on what is an acceptable "status-quo". Then, the outside forces will become "part of the problem" (Iran at least, and arguably many others). It may be the current "protagonists" go on killing each other indefinitely.
The idea of "trust" between the parties in such confrontations is specious. As long as the various "protagonists" exist, they will continue to struggle against each other. The only thing that brings "peace" in such a situation is the creation of a stable balance of power where both sides realize that armed conflict will not improve their situation. Both sides will be vigilant and maintain at least a military balance, because if they do not their opponent will eventually take advantage of the situation. It is certainly true that one side may be so far "down" in the fight that their risk tolerance is immense. They believe things are so bad, how much worse can they get? The opposite is also true. If one side believes the other is too weak to even attempt resistance, they will take advantage of the situation. It is not a matter of "if", it is a matter of "when".
This evaluation is pessimistic, but IMO it is just reality. The Palestinians have had ample opportunity to accept "defeat" and attempt to form a prosperous Palestinian state elsewhere in the middle east. They simply aren't going to do that it seems. They will accept only total victory. Is their "cause" a "just" one? IMO it doesn't really matter either way. They are pursuing it. That doesn't mean terrorism and atrocities are "acceptable" but it does mean this conflict won't end as long as both sides exist. Really, really sad, but IMO that is the way it is.
It is tempting to hope that "outside forces" could intervene and force both sides to "stay in their corners". To some extent, the cold war did that. However, even then the conflict simmered. Outside political and economic forces can suppress the conflict, but they can't make it go away. It is also highly unlikely that those "outside forces" will remain in agreement on what is an acceptable "status-quo". Then, the outside forces will become "part of the problem" (Iran at least, and arguably many others). It may be the current "protagonists" go on killing each other indefinitely.