[Goose]

I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.

IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.

The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.

[Goose]

I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.

IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.

The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.