[lex24]

1697167534[/url]']

1697157110[/url]']

1697156316[/url]']
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.

IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.

The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.

FWIW, I disagree.  I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car.  Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two.  They had no idea that their attack would work this well.

The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.

I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing.  Today world opinion is on Israel’s side.  But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as  “disproportionate.”  Overtime, public opinion will shift.  As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.  

Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West.  (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)

[lex24]

1697167534[/url]']

1697157110[/url]']

1697156316[/url]']
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.

IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.

The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.

FWIW, I disagree.  I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car.  Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two.  They had no idea that their attack would work this well.

The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.

I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing.  Today world opinion is on Israel’s side.  But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as  “disproportionate.”  Overtime, public opinion will shift.  As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.  

Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West.  (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)