[GK3]

1697167534[/url]']

1697157110[/url]']

1697156316[/url]']
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.

IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.

The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.

FWIW, I disagree.  I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car.  Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two.  They had no idea that their attack would work this well.

The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.

I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing.  Today world opinion is on Israel’s side.  But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as  “disproportionate.”  Overtime, public opinion will shift.  As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.  

Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West.  (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)

Lex I think you are exactly right.  These links support your hypothesis.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-ea...nianshttps:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-ea...der-palmer

Israel was caught napping and now it is in a very difficult place.  Take action that in the long term reflect against it, or support its hard right members who want to take over the West Bank and kick out all non Israelis who live there.  We also have an issue as a government as to how far to support Israel. It isn't as clear cut as it once was.  Do we support the hard right government that wants to take over the West Bank and evict Palestineans from what has been their homes and force millions of people in North Gaza to leave to who knows where? A strong US support for these tactics will not pay dividends for us.

[GK3]

1697167534[/url]']

1697157110[/url]']

1697156316[/url]']
I am uncertain of Iran's involvement. It's certainly possible, they have some plausible motivations. But to me this smells more of a miscalculation by Hamas rather than something done at Iran's direction.

IMO it probably was a decision solely by Hamas. What Iran knew and when they knew it is IMO unclear. I don't think it was a "miscalculation". I think Hamas knew exactly what the result would be. This is an action that clearly was planned over a very long period of time. It wasn't done on impulse. Hamas wouldn't waste this action on a whim.

The lack of significant direct and immediate action by Hezbollah make me believe Iran didn't order this action. They would want maximum effect and a coordinated action, which this was not.

FWIW, I disagree.  I think this was a classic case of the dog catching the car.  Hammas thought they would kill a couple of jews and maybe take a hostage or two.  They had no idea that their attack would work this well.

The consequences at this point are going to be horrific.

I think Hamas knew exactly what it is doing.  Today world opinion is on Israel’s side.  But Hamas knew Israel will respond and do so in a manner that will be deemed by many as  “disproportionate.”  Overtime, public opinion will shift.  As pictures and stories of a flattened Gaza and the consequences to the Palestinians emerge.  

Hamas then gets more backing not only among Arab nations , but in the West.  (Particularly from a public relations, “hearts and souls” standpoint.)

Lex I think you are exactly right.  These links support your hypothesis.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-ea...nianshttps:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-ea...der-palmer

Israel was caught napping and now it is in a very difficult place.  Take action that in the long term reflect against it, or support its hard right members who want to take over the West Bank and kick out all non Israelis who live there.  We also have an issue as a government as to how far to support Israel. It isn't as clear cut as it once was.  Do we support the hard right government that wants to take over the West Bank and evict Palestineans from what has been their homes and force millions of people in North Gaza to leave to who knows where? A strong US support for these tactics will not pay dividends for us.