10-17-2023, 06:05 AM
(10-15-2023, 08:46 PM)Goose Wrote:(10-15-2023, 06:47 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote: There are only two solutions here. First, Israel could build a military grade wall around Gaza and let Hamas rot in its own filth. That would be really bad for the population who has been horribly served by Hamas.Unfortunately that is not an option. That is somewhat the approach Israel has already tried. First, a wall does not have a roof. Missiles go up and come down just fine even if fired from behind a wall. Second, no obstacle, no matter how formidable, will not be breached unless it is overwatched and defended. Hamas has shown with their tunnels and other breaching technologies that Israel is unable (as everyone else in the world would be unable) to defend their "obstacle" absolutely. That means Israelis would still die when Hamas finagled their way through, which inevitably some would.
Quote:The other option is to expel Hamas. To do that you have to go in on the ground. To do that what we need to do is get the civillians out. Going door to door will be awful. Get the civilians out and then lay siege. Over time you can root Hamas out without having to pay an awful price.I am virtually certain the US said no such thing. If the US had any intention of "bombing the hell" out of Iran, it would have already done so many times over in the past 30 years. IMO the possibility of congress allowing this type of action is nil. Israel is another matter, and I am sure Iran knows that. However, I would suggest the idea that Iran has "stood down" is very questionable. They certainly don't want to start a war with either Israel or the US, but they are still going to do whatever they can short of that to make this crisis operate to their ends.
So what should the US do?
We put two carrier groups there. We tell friendly nations that this shit has to end. Hamas has to go. Most of the middle eastern nations hate them anyway so that is fine.
We have them tell Iran that if they get involved the US and Israel are going to bomb the hell out of you. Notice how Iran has now stood down.
Quote:We then tell Abbas that if he wants to remain in power he better come out against Hamas. He has now done that.2M more than they have any intention of accepting. Nobody is going to take these refugees because the track record of Palestinian refugees in other countries is uniformly disastrous. Talk to Jordan, Tunisia and Libya (if you can figure out who in Libya to ask). If you get the refugees, you get Hamas with them. On top of that, the Palestinians don't want to go. There are already significant Palestinian refugee communities in many nations. Notice that none of those nations are rushing to accept more.
We are probably also telling Hezbolah that if they get involved it is going to be really really ugly. I don't expect them to.
Now we need to find some place to put the Gaza civillians. That one is trickier. But with the current siege it is going to get ugly in there so hopefully most want to leave. We got to get someone to take them. Probably smaller groups in lots of countries. Probably some in the West Bank. Egypt already has like 9M refugees so whats 2M more?
Thank you for your thoughtful reply.
I agree with you that the wall isn't the answer. I mostly just used that as an example of how bad the alternatives are for both sides.
I do believe that we have essentially threatened Iran. Likely through third parties. And potentially the strikes would be Israel but we are in full support of them. Heck, Lindsey Graham said this on Meet The Press. Not that he is the government but that is clearly the message. There is a reason they have backed down although my guess is they will go back and forth.
I agree that no one wants the Palestinians. But I also think no one wants to deal with Hamas anymore.
As the other country bordering Gaza, Egypt is going to have to be involved here. I expect it to take time but they need to be part of the solution.
Two options:
1) Take 2M refugees and let Israel finish the job. You are right on all of the reasons they hate this idea, but maybe it is better than the alternatives and lots of money is likely coming their way if they agree to it.
2) Have Egypt govern Gaza. They controlled Gaza prior to 67. A ton of money would flow into Gaza if Egypt was willing to govern it. And maybe that is better than 2M Palestinians in Egypt.
I welcome better ideas....
