10-18-2023, 12:15 PM
I hope the revelation that Hamas reported fake news regarding the blast at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital will help change the narrative about how Israel is prosecuting this war.
Per this CNN article, Gazan authorities (i.e. Hamas) now claim that Israel has killed 3,478 Gazans (including 471 that they still falsely attribute to Israel): https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/18/middleeas...index.html.
To what extent should we trust this data, and if it is useful at all, how should we interpret it?
As a starting point, it's important to note that we're now 11 days into the war and Israel's air force has launched thousands of strikes at military targets in Gaza. If Israel were targeting civilians, I would expect to see reporting about specific incidents in which Israel's air strikes hit civilian targets. To date, I've seen almost no such reporting, except for the reporting about the al-Ahli Arab Hospital, which was false.
In addition, I do not think it's safe to assume that Israel is responsible for 3,000 deaths (besides the hospital incident, which is plainly false) that we're seeing reported. Like the reporting about the hospital incident, this data comes from Gazan health authorities (i.e. Hamas), so it is inherently suspect.
Also, we can reasonably expect that many of the deaths in Gaza are deaths of terrorists whom Israel properly targeted.
We also have good reason to believe that Hamas is continuing its long standing practice of using civilians as human shields and that there have been other "friendly fire" incidents like the hospital incident, and that, as a result, Hamas bears responsibility for many of the civilians who have died.
In sum, the top line data about the number of Gazans who have died is notable, but many caveats are appropriate. As with US military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, attribution for civilian deaths will remain elusive, but is best determined on a case-by-case basis, looking at what happened in each incident. So far, I have seen lots of numbers reported, but no specific facts suggesting that Israel is targeting civilians or that Israel is callous about the collateral effects on civilians resulting from this war. If anything, the top line numbers undermine that Hamas-created narrative.
Per this CNN article, Gazan authorities (i.e. Hamas) now claim that Israel has killed 3,478 Gazans (including 471 that they still falsely attribute to Israel): https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/18/middleeas...index.html.
To what extent should we trust this data, and if it is useful at all, how should we interpret it?
As a starting point, it's important to note that we're now 11 days into the war and Israel's air force has launched thousands of strikes at military targets in Gaza. If Israel were targeting civilians, I would expect to see reporting about specific incidents in which Israel's air strikes hit civilian targets. To date, I've seen almost no such reporting, except for the reporting about the al-Ahli Arab Hospital, which was false.
In addition, I do not think it's safe to assume that Israel is responsible for 3,000 deaths (besides the hospital incident, which is plainly false) that we're seeing reported. Like the reporting about the hospital incident, this data comes from Gazan health authorities (i.e. Hamas), so it is inherently suspect.
Also, we can reasonably expect that many of the deaths in Gaza are deaths of terrorists whom Israel properly targeted.
We also have good reason to believe that Hamas is continuing its long standing practice of using civilians as human shields and that there have been other "friendly fire" incidents like the hospital incident, and that, as a result, Hamas bears responsibility for many of the civilians who have died.
In sum, the top line data about the number of Gazans who have died is notable, but many caveats are appropriate. As with US military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, attribution for civilian deaths will remain elusive, but is best determined on a case-by-case basis, looking at what happened in each incident. So far, I have seen lots of numbers reported, but no specific facts suggesting that Israel is targeting civilians or that Israel is callous about the collateral effects on civilians resulting from this war. If anything, the top line numbers undermine that Hamas-created narrative.
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