Time for the annual check-in comparing how I did in predicting Stanford's top contributors with how PFF viewed our players as faring. Here are the top 35 contributors for 2023 Stanford football ranked in order of PFF grades (with the delta between predicted and actual included parenthetically):
1. Elic Ayomanor - 74.4 (+20)
2. Collin Wright - 73.2 (nailed it!)
3. Scotty Edwards - 72.6 (+31)
4. Alaka'i Gilman - 68.7 (+27)
5. Levi Rogers - 67.9 (+13)
6. Zahran Manley - 67.2 (+11)
7. EJ Smith - 66.7 (+4)
8. Justin Lamson - 65.8 (-1)
9. Tobin Phillips - 65.1 (+22)
10. Ashton Daniels - 64.4 (-2)
11. Connor McLaughlin - 64.1 (+18)
12. Benjamin Yurosek - 63.1 (-9)
13. Lance Keneley - 61.9 (-3)
14. David Bailey - 61.7 (-13)
15. Tiger Bachmeier - 61.4 (+10)
16. Jaxson Moi - 60.6 (+10)
17. Jake Maikkula - 59.8 (not on the board preseason)
17. Mudia Reuben - 59.8 (+2)
19. Anthony Franklin - 58.9 (+13)
20. Wilfredo Aybar - 58.3 (not on the board preseason)
21. Bryce Farrell - 58.0 (not on the board preseason)
22. Casey Filkins - 57.7 (-13)
23. Tevarua Tafiti - 57.2 (-17)
24. Sam Roush - 57.1 (+6)
25. Luke Baklenko - 56.1 (not on the board preseason)
26. Zach Buckey - 56.0 (+9)
27. Mitch Leigber - 55.3 (not on the board preseason)
28. Simione Pale - 54.7 (-8)
29. JShawn Frausto-Ramos - 53.7 (not on the board preseason)
30. Gaethan Bernadel - 53.6 (-26)
31. Trevor Mayberry - 53.2 (-4)
32. Fisher Anderson - 48.9 (-8)
33. Spencer Jorgensen - 47.8 (not on the board preseason)
34. Tristan Sinclair - 45.3 (-21)
35. Jaden Slocum - 44.2 (-12)
Observations:
* This was my worst year in guessing the top ten. I only got three right, compared to four each of the last two years and a remarkable eight in 2020. I got one of the top two right, which is pretty good but I got both right in 2020 and 2022. I always get 28-29 of the top 35 right and this year was the same, 28 right for the third time in four years (29 the other year). To the extent I was worse at predicting the standout players this year I think that is probably pretty predictable in a rebuilding year. There are less standouts in general on bad teams. I think there is a reason I did better in 2020 - it was a decent team, unlike our last three years.
* The players I got wrong were Ernest Cooper, Jack Leyrer, Jimmy Wyrick, Joshua Thompson, John Humphreys, Aaron Armitage, and Omari Porter. Wyrick and Humphreys were clear cases of the kind of injuries we see every year. I had a very close judgment call to make on whether a fifth DL or third ILB would get more snaps and I guessed wrong but don't feel badly about it as Jorgensen was the first guy outside of the bubble for me preseason. I was simply wrong on who would play more between Porter and Leigber. Cooper is an enigma for all of us on why he doesn't play more. Leyrer is one of the big mysteries/wildcards of the season and I suspect a doghouse situation. And Thompson is simply a player I'd been a fan of based on very limited data points and was probably wrong about.
* If PFF grades were available for every year in Stanford's history you might have to go back to 1977 and Darrin Nelson to find a year when a football freshman was the best player on our team (though prime James Lofton would have something to say about that). Ayomanor was spectacular.
* It's startling to see such over-performance compared to my expectations for the DBs, especially since I feel like I was consistently the DBs biggest fan in the off-season. I always knew it would be a strength of the team. But I really don't think any of us could have anticipated how well Gregory's guys would play.
* The least surprising thing here is how wrong I was about the DL room. I anticipated this at the time, posting that I felt I could be underestimating that room.
* I had the QB room pegged from the jump in terms of the overall performance and that both guys would play a lot. It's an artifact of the PFF approach that Lamson ranks as high as he does - remember, these are rate grades, and he gets a lot of credit for the running - and is not one of our ten most important players in my view, but I did have the general level of QB play pegged right.
* I was wildly off on the entire second level of the defense. I think I put too much faith in the Wisconsin coaching staff/scheme coming so intact and it translating right away. It is a big surprise our ILBs graded as poorly as they did given what Wisconsin defenses do. This is grist for lots of debate. Opinions differ wildly on Sinclair. Bernadel is somebody I have liked more than his PFF grades, but like Sinclair he grades really poorly. Bailey and Tafiti did not live up to the hype. Hoping better days ahead for our OLBs and ILBs, not a good year at all. A Wisconsin-style defense with nobody in those groups above a 62 grade is appalling.
* Four true freshmen key contributors is a lot. I imagine we see something similar next year.
* We know this, but this team was awful. Three key contributors with 70+ grades is hard to fathom. That is definitely the worst PFF has ever graded us at the top end. One silver lining is that we actually did better in avoiding disastrously incompetent performances, with four sub-50 grades better than the five in 2022 and eight in 2021. It's also the only time in the last three years we didn't have a laughable sub-40 grade or two. In short, a nice silver lining of this season is that our weakest links weren't as weak or as plentiful as the last two years under Shaw.
* But there was no Drake Nugent, Drew Dalman, or Paulson Adebo either. Ayomanor wasn't consistent enough to grade at the elite level. Hopefully that's the step he takes next year.
* The thing to watch every offseason is how many of the top players return. This year Bailey, Filkins, Leyrer, and Keneley were the only top 15 guys to return. We should be able to double our number of top guys back. Beyond that I'm not ready to forecast. At first blush it doesn't seem like we have very much talent returning but it's an improvement. The most important thing probably is that heading into this year we had zero players who were proven 70+ guys and presumably next year we'll have three to build around.
1. Elic Ayomanor - 74.4 (+20)
2. Collin Wright - 73.2 (nailed it!)
3. Scotty Edwards - 72.6 (+31)
4. Alaka'i Gilman - 68.7 (+27)
5. Levi Rogers - 67.9 (+13)
6. Zahran Manley - 67.2 (+11)
7. EJ Smith - 66.7 (+4)
8. Justin Lamson - 65.8 (-1)
9. Tobin Phillips - 65.1 (+22)
10. Ashton Daniels - 64.4 (-2)
11. Connor McLaughlin - 64.1 (+18)
12. Benjamin Yurosek - 63.1 (-9)
13. Lance Keneley - 61.9 (-3)
14. David Bailey - 61.7 (-13)
15. Tiger Bachmeier - 61.4 (+10)
16. Jaxson Moi - 60.6 (+10)
17. Jake Maikkula - 59.8 (not on the board preseason)
17. Mudia Reuben - 59.8 (+2)
19. Anthony Franklin - 58.9 (+13)
20. Wilfredo Aybar - 58.3 (not on the board preseason)
21. Bryce Farrell - 58.0 (not on the board preseason)
22. Casey Filkins - 57.7 (-13)
23. Tevarua Tafiti - 57.2 (-17)
24. Sam Roush - 57.1 (+6)
25. Luke Baklenko - 56.1 (not on the board preseason)
26. Zach Buckey - 56.0 (+9)
27. Mitch Leigber - 55.3 (not on the board preseason)
28. Simione Pale - 54.7 (-8)
29. JShawn Frausto-Ramos - 53.7 (not on the board preseason)
30. Gaethan Bernadel - 53.6 (-26)
31. Trevor Mayberry - 53.2 (-4)
32. Fisher Anderson - 48.9 (-8)
33. Spencer Jorgensen - 47.8 (not on the board preseason)
34. Tristan Sinclair - 45.3 (-21)
35. Jaden Slocum - 44.2 (-12)
Observations:
* This was my worst year in guessing the top ten. I only got three right, compared to four each of the last two years and a remarkable eight in 2020. I got one of the top two right, which is pretty good but I got both right in 2020 and 2022. I always get 28-29 of the top 35 right and this year was the same, 28 right for the third time in four years (29 the other year). To the extent I was worse at predicting the standout players this year I think that is probably pretty predictable in a rebuilding year. There are less standouts in general on bad teams. I think there is a reason I did better in 2020 - it was a decent team, unlike our last three years.
* The players I got wrong were Ernest Cooper, Jack Leyrer, Jimmy Wyrick, Joshua Thompson, John Humphreys, Aaron Armitage, and Omari Porter. Wyrick and Humphreys were clear cases of the kind of injuries we see every year. I had a very close judgment call to make on whether a fifth DL or third ILB would get more snaps and I guessed wrong but don't feel badly about it as Jorgensen was the first guy outside of the bubble for me preseason. I was simply wrong on who would play more between Porter and Leigber. Cooper is an enigma for all of us on why he doesn't play more. Leyrer is one of the big mysteries/wildcards of the season and I suspect a doghouse situation. And Thompson is simply a player I'd been a fan of based on very limited data points and was probably wrong about.
* If PFF grades were available for every year in Stanford's history you might have to go back to 1977 and Darrin Nelson to find a year when a football freshman was the best player on our team (though prime James Lofton would have something to say about that). Ayomanor was spectacular.
* It's startling to see such over-performance compared to my expectations for the DBs, especially since I feel like I was consistently the DBs biggest fan in the off-season. I always knew it would be a strength of the team. But I really don't think any of us could have anticipated how well Gregory's guys would play.
* The least surprising thing here is how wrong I was about the DL room. I anticipated this at the time, posting that I felt I could be underestimating that room.
* I had the QB room pegged from the jump in terms of the overall performance and that both guys would play a lot. It's an artifact of the PFF approach that Lamson ranks as high as he does - remember, these are rate grades, and he gets a lot of credit for the running - and is not one of our ten most important players in my view, but I did have the general level of QB play pegged right.
* I was wildly off on the entire second level of the defense. I think I put too much faith in the Wisconsin coaching staff/scheme coming so intact and it translating right away. It is a big surprise our ILBs graded as poorly as they did given what Wisconsin defenses do. This is grist for lots of debate. Opinions differ wildly on Sinclair. Bernadel is somebody I have liked more than his PFF grades, but like Sinclair he grades really poorly. Bailey and Tafiti did not live up to the hype. Hoping better days ahead for our OLBs and ILBs, not a good year at all. A Wisconsin-style defense with nobody in those groups above a 62 grade is appalling.
* Four true freshmen key contributors is a lot. I imagine we see something similar next year.
* We know this, but this team was awful. Three key contributors with 70+ grades is hard to fathom. That is definitely the worst PFF has ever graded us at the top end. One silver lining is that we actually did better in avoiding disastrously incompetent performances, with four sub-50 grades better than the five in 2022 and eight in 2021. It's also the only time in the last three years we didn't have a laughable sub-40 grade or two. In short, a nice silver lining of this season is that our weakest links weren't as weak or as plentiful as the last two years under Shaw.
* But there was no Drake Nugent, Drew Dalman, or Paulson Adebo either. Ayomanor wasn't consistent enough to grade at the elite level. Hopefully that's the step he takes next year.
* The thing to watch every offseason is how many of the top players return. This year Bailey, Filkins, Leyrer, and Keneley were the only top 15 guys to return. We should be able to double our number of top guys back. Beyond that I'm not ready to forecast. At first blush it doesn't seem like we have very much talent returning but it's an improvement. The most important thing probably is that heading into this year we had zero players who were proven 70+ guys and presumably next year we'll have three to build around.