[Goose]

The full analysis would also look at the expected point value of a first and ten at around the opponent’s forty, multiplied by the probability of converting.

Easy enough to do. The PPD starting at the opponent's 41 is 3.83. If P is the probability of converting, the "break even" point is when P * 3.83 == 2.72 * (1.0 - P). Solving for P yields the break-even probability is 0.415. So, if you thought it more than 41.5% probable you would make a first down on fourth and five, going for it will have a positive expected value. Mentally, I did the same evaluation with the simplifying assumption that P was obviously very close to 0 and could be neglected in computing the expected value :-). I see no way one could rationally estimate P at 41.5% or greater. Fourth and one, yes, P may even be 50% or so.

I think it is funny that many of the same people who excoriated Shaw for punting from the opponent’s side of the field are also criticizing Taylor for going for it.

Indeed, but nothing says sports boards are intellectually consistent :-).

Here’s the bottom line, we lost 49-7.  Even under the best of circumstances, where we kick a field goal from the 41 to get us to 10 points, and the extra distance that Notre Dame has to cover makes a difference between a touchdown and no points (happened twice; the third and last time we failed to convert, the game ended on Notre Dame’s ensuing possession).  So, even under the best of circumstances that’s a 35-10 Notre Dame win instead of 49-7; still a beatdown.  More likely, Notre Dame scores anyway and the game is not markedly different from 49-7.

BC

You are of course correct in the event. ND punted the first time they got the ball and fumbled it once. However, when the decision was made to go for it on fourth and five, none of that was in evidence. The game was tied. You have to play to win the game by making the best possible decisions. IMO we didn't do that. Yes, we were eventually in a beatdown. Even once the game gets out of hand, IMO you still have to maximize your ability to score points. The players are owed that if we expect them not to quit.

[Goose]

The full analysis would also look at the expected point value of a first and ten at around the opponent’s forty, multiplied by the probability of converting.

Easy enough to do. The PPD starting at the opponent's 41 is 3.83. If P is the probability of converting, the "break even" point is when P * 3.83 == 2.72 * (1.0 - P). Solving for P yields the break-even probability is 0.415. So, if you thought it more than 41.5% probable you would make a first down on fourth and five, going for it will have a positive expected value. Mentally, I did the same evaluation with the simplifying assumption that P was obviously very close to 0 and could be neglected in computing the expected value :-). I see no way one could rationally estimate P at 41.5% or greater. Fourth and one, yes, P may even be 50% or so.

I think it is funny that many of the same people who excoriated Shaw for punting from the opponent’s side of the field are also criticizing Taylor for going for it.

Indeed, but nothing says sports boards are intellectually consistent :-).

Here’s the bottom line, we lost 49-7.  Even under the best of circumstances, where we kick a field goal from the 41 to get us to 10 points, and the extra distance that Notre Dame has to cover makes a difference between a touchdown and no points (happened twice; the third and last time we failed to convert, the game ended on Notre Dame’s ensuing possession).  So, even under the best of circumstances that’s a 35-10 Notre Dame win instead of 49-7; still a beatdown.  More likely, Notre Dame scores anyway and the game is not markedly different from 49-7.

BC

You are of course correct in the event. ND punted the first time they got the ball and fumbled it once. However, when the decision was made to go for it on fourth and five, none of that was in evidence. The game was tied. You have to play to win the game by making the best possible decisions. IMO we didn't do that. Yes, we were eventually in a beatdown. Even once the game gets out of hand, IMO you still have to maximize your ability to score points. The players are owed that if we expect them not to quit.