10-13-2024, 07:36 PM
I think the formula is the value for going it if successful times the probability of success minus the value of going for it but failing times (1 - p) has to be greater than the value of punting.
So it becomes 3.83p - 2.72(1 - p) > -1.8 (the value to the other team of having the ball on the 20, if you punt). Solving for p, you get
p > 0.92 / 1.11; p > 83%
It's a bit late, so I could be wrong on the math; I would have thought the breakeven point would be lower, but maybe that's because I would have expected the value of being on the 40 compared to the 20 to be smaller.
BC
So it becomes 3.83p - 2.72(1 - p) > -1.8 (the value to the other team of having the ball on the 20, if you punt). Solving for p, you get
p > 0.92 / 1.11; p > 83%
It's a bit late, so I could be wrong on the math; I would have thought the breakeven point would be lower, but maybe that's because I would have expected the value of being on the 40 compared to the 20 to be smaller.
BC