[CardinalSagehen]

1730585074[/url]']

1730579198[/url]']
I’m sorry, but I think there is a fair amount of delusion on this board.  The talent level is low.  It will continue to be unless and until Stanford changes its approach to NIL and the portal.  You aren’t going to get top talent without shelling out big bucks for it.  You think, for example, Elway or McCaffrey would have gone to Stanford under today’s situation? And if so, stayed?   Luck, maybe.  But he’s a unicorn. 

They are not going to get enough good players to compete unless they increase NIL and loosen up transfer rules to take full advantage of the portal.

Fire TT and hire who?  I mean it’s not quite like the Chicago White Sox job.  But close.

The program is on life support.  I don’t think the Admin gives a damn.  Therein lies the biggest problem.  Not the HC.

This team doesn't have great talent. Nobody is expecting miracles. But there is a massive gulf between our current talent level and our current performance, and I don't think you fully appreciate the first-order and second-order implications of this.

After two years of player development and two off-seasons under the current AD and head coach, I believe the right questions are as follows:

1) Is this coach getting anywhere close to a reasonable degree of performance out of his team's talent?
No. And it isn't close. We have #42 talent and #104 performance (probably lower, after today). You can even discount the talent by 30-50 places due to the relative maturity of transfers, and it's still not acceptable. We are performing at the bottom of expectations for a Group of 5 team, and we're probably worse than a handful of FCS teams. Sagarin says we'd be the 4th best team in the Missouri Valley Conference! Our talent level certainly is not that low. Hypotheticaly, we could be 2-7 with very acceptable performance and signs of progress, but this team's performance is unacceptable.

2) Are this AD and this coach the right people to compete in the new world for NIL money and transfers?
No. Muir selected TT on the theory that he could establish a winning culture with middle-of-the-road high school recruits and utilize them in an innovative offensive system. Now TT himself admits that his original premise was wrong. TT does not have the charisma, coaching prowess, or proven P4 results to attract recruits or transfers. That's not the kind of coach or leader he is. If his original premise was wrong, then he was never the right guy for the job.

3) Is the current AD the right person to shift Stanford into the NIL world?
No, because he has resisted it for years. He is the symbol of resisting it. He who built the current castle should not be the one to tear it down. And TT is caught up in this, too, because he is not the right kind of forceful advocate for the program's needs vis a vis the rest of the institution and other non-revenue sports. Part of his job is to be the strongest advocate for football. He shouldn't win all of those internal battles, but he needs to provide the tension for his superiors to make the right decisions.

4) Will boosters line up to give money to this AD and this coach?
No, I think they're too smart for that. A new coach has a honeymoon period when boosters, recruits, transfers, and admins believe anything is possible. TT has unfortunately burned up his honeymoon period. The only way to effect change is with another change at the top to open another new chapter.

I continue to believe that Muir is the one who needs to go first, and the new AD should evaluate and select the new coach. If, as you say, nobody in the Administration fricking cares, then you're right that nothing will happen. But isn't it also irrational to pay an AD and a head football coach millions of dollars per year if this is the case?

Frankly, I don’t think there is much disagreement between us.  No matter how it happens, Stanford has to step up with NIL and address changes relative to the portal. . If that means dumping TT and Muir, so be it.  But imo the change in administrative philosophy need come first.  Otherwise, whomever is the next coach will fail as well.

Perhaps  Bob Bowlsby is tired by being the Big 12 Commish.

Yes, I believe you're right.

The two changes - philosophy and AD - are probably tied together. I don't think they can or should pursue a new philosophy with Muir. His dismissal would be a pretty good external indication of a bona fide change in philosophy. It seems unlikely, though...

[CardinalSagehen]

1730585074[/url]']

1730579198[/url]']
I’m sorry, but I think there is a fair amount of delusion on this board.  The talent level is low.  It will continue to be unless and until Stanford changes its approach to NIL and the portal.  You aren’t going to get top talent without shelling out big bucks for it.  You think, for example, Elway or McCaffrey would have gone to Stanford under today’s situation? And if so, stayed?   Luck, maybe.  But he’s a unicorn. 

They are not going to get enough good players to compete unless they increase NIL and loosen up transfer rules to take full advantage of the portal.

Fire TT and hire who?  I mean it’s not quite like the Chicago White Sox job.  But close.

The program is on life support.  I don’t think the Admin gives a damn.  Therein lies the biggest problem.  Not the HC.

This team doesn't have great talent. Nobody is expecting miracles. But there is a massive gulf between our current talent level and our current performance, and I don't think you fully appreciate the first-order and second-order implications of this.

After two years of player development and two off-seasons under the current AD and head coach, I believe the right questions are as follows:

1) Is this coach getting anywhere close to a reasonable degree of performance out of his team's talent?
No. And it isn't close. We have #42 talent and #104 performance (probably lower, after today). You can even discount the talent by 30-50 places due to the relative maturity of transfers, and it's still not acceptable. We are performing at the bottom of expectations for a Group of 5 team, and we're probably worse than a handful of FCS teams. Sagarin says we'd be the 4th best team in the Missouri Valley Conference! Our talent level certainly is not that low. Hypotheticaly, we could be 2-7 with very acceptable performance and signs of progress, but this team's performance is unacceptable.

2) Are this AD and this coach the right people to compete in the new world for NIL money and transfers?
No. Muir selected TT on the theory that he could establish a winning culture with middle-of-the-road high school recruits and utilize them in an innovative offensive system. Now TT himself admits that his original premise was wrong. TT does not have the charisma, coaching prowess, or proven P4 results to attract recruits or transfers. That's not the kind of coach or leader he is. If his original premise was wrong, then he was never the right guy for the job.

3) Is the current AD the right person to shift Stanford into the NIL world?
No, because he has resisted it for years. He is the symbol of resisting it. He who built the current castle should not be the one to tear it down. And TT is caught up in this, too, because he is not the right kind of forceful advocate for the program's needs vis a vis the rest of the institution and other non-revenue sports. Part of his job is to be the strongest advocate for football. He shouldn't win all of those internal battles, but he needs to provide the tension for his superiors to make the right decisions.

4) Will boosters line up to give money to this AD and this coach?
No, I think they're too smart for that. A new coach has a honeymoon period when boosters, recruits, transfers, and admins believe anything is possible. TT has unfortunately burned up his honeymoon period. The only way to effect change is with another change at the top to open another new chapter.

I continue to believe that Muir is the one who needs to go first, and the new AD should evaluate and select the new coach. If, as you say, nobody in the Administration fricking cares, then you're right that nothing will happen. But isn't it also irrational to pay an AD and a head football coach millions of dollars per year if this is the case?

Frankly, I don’t think there is much disagreement between us.  No matter how it happens, Stanford has to step up with NIL and address changes relative to the portal. . If that means dumping TT and Muir, so be it.  But imo the change in administrative philosophy need come first.  Otherwise, whomever is the next coach will fail as well.

Perhaps  Bob Bowlsby is tired by being the Big 12 Commish.

Yes, I believe you're right.

The two changes - philosophy and AD - are probably tied together. I don't think they can or should pursue a new philosophy with Muir. His dismissal would be a pretty good external indication of a bona fide change in philosophy. It seems unlikely, though...