[81alum]

(Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the review, but it makes them sound like Godzilla,)

Hah!  This is my nature, always looking at the opposition though their most favorable light.  An old habit that protects me from potential disappointment.  I do think that playing at home instead of in the dog pound makes an important difference in our favor.  Our team played as if it were intimidated last year--and this was compounded by foul trouble and ill health.  We have had enough things going well for our young team this year that I think we may be a harder team to defend than we were last year.  So I would give us better than 50/50 odds to win.  But Gonzaga is one of the better teams on our schedule.

81alum: IMO, that's a pretty nebulous basis for concluding that the likelihood of a Cardinal W is more than 50%. Do you not think that the Bulldogs are likely to defend both our 3-point shooting and occasional drives to the hoop much better than the 2 previous teams did?

Of course they are.  A Fortier team always defends reasonably well, and they have a very big advantage compared to those other two teams of having seen two games on film--not to mention their skill levels which are obviously higher.  But we blew out the last two teams, and the question is not whether we can blow out Gonzaga but merely win.  

Last year we did not put 8 people on the floor who were making three point shots.  With Brink going out of that game early, Gonzaga could focus their entire defense on Kiki and Jump.  They will not be able to narrowly focus tomorrow.  There was also a major psychological hurdle when we played in what may be the most hostile venue in the nation.  I wish Maples gave us the same advantage as the dog pound gives Gonzaga, but at least our venue---hopefully stuffed with enthusiastic fans who will come out to honor Tara--will be mildly positive as compared with the rabid sell-outs at Gonzaga.  Tara (or maybe it was an assistant at a chalk talk?) said that several of our players had "deer in the headlights" looks about them during that game.  I doubt that will be the case tomorrow.

The biggest question to me is how we defend Ejim.  The game may hinge on how successful we are.  I think (but obviously don't know) that it will have to be Agara on her.  I do not believe Demetre has the quickness to defend her, and the other guards lack the size or versatility.  If Agara gets into foul trouble then we will have a major match up problem.  But if Agara can make Ejim really work for her points then I think our offense can score enough to outpace Gonzaga.  Maybe we rotate someone to give help at times and double team her.

Here is another interesting point.  Last year, Tess Heal played Gonzaga twice for Santa Clara.  Santa Clara badly lost both games, but Tess was a bright spot.  In the second game she scored 22 points on 8/16 shooting, with 0 three pointers.  She drove a lot and got 8 free throws.  She knows this opposition well.  Look for her to play a lot and perform well.

[81alum]

(Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the review, but it makes them sound like Godzilla,)

Hah!  This is my nature, always looking at the opposition though their most favorable light.  An old habit that protects me from potential disappointment.  I do think that playing at home instead of in the dog pound makes an important difference in our favor.  Our team played as if it were intimidated last year--and this was compounded by foul trouble and ill health.  We have had enough things going well for our young team this year that I think we may be a harder team to defend than we were last year.  So I would give us better than 50/50 odds to win.  But Gonzaga is one of the better teams on our schedule.

81alum: IMO, that's a pretty nebulous basis for concluding that the likelihood of a Cardinal W is more than 50%. Do you not think that the Bulldogs are likely to defend both our 3-point shooting and occasional drives to the hoop much better than the 2 previous teams did?

Of course they are.  A Fortier team always defends reasonably well, and they have a very big advantage compared to those other two teams of having seen two games on film--not to mention their skill levels which are obviously higher.  But we blew out the last two teams, and the question is not whether we can blow out Gonzaga but merely win.  

Last year we did not put 8 people on the floor who were making three point shots.  With Brink going out of that game early, Gonzaga could focus their entire defense on Kiki and Jump.  They will not be able to narrowly focus tomorrow.  There was also a major psychological hurdle when we played in what may be the most hostile venue in the nation.  I wish Maples gave us the same advantage as the dog pound gives Gonzaga, but at least our venue---hopefully stuffed with enthusiastic fans who will come out to honor Tara--will be mildly positive as compared with the rabid sell-outs at Gonzaga.  Tara (or maybe it was an assistant at a chalk talk?) said that several of our players had "deer in the headlights" looks about them during that game.  I doubt that will be the case tomorrow.

The biggest question to me is how we defend Ejim.  The game may hinge on how successful we are.  I think (but obviously don't know) that it will have to be Agara on her.  I do not believe Demetre has the quickness to defend her, and the other guards lack the size or versatility.  If Agara gets into foul trouble then we will have a major match up problem.  But if Agara can make Ejim really work for her points then I think our offense can score enough to outpace Gonzaga.  Maybe we rotate someone to give help at times and double team her.

Here is another interesting point.  Last year, Tess Heal played Gonzaga twice for Santa Clara.  Santa Clara badly lost both games, but Tess was a bright spot.  In the second game she scored 22 points on 8/16 shooting, with 0 three pointers.  She drove a lot and got 8 free throws.  She knows this opposition well.  Look for her to play a lot and perform well.