11-14-2024, 02:24 PM
(11-14-2024, 12:07 PM)SkiBum80 Wrote: One second order effect hard to quantify (I have not tried) is the reduced chance of getting an Off Rebound when you shoot a 3 compared to a 2.
I would guess the chance is slightly higher for the 2 than the 3.
Conventional wisdom is that it is easier to get an offensive rebound on a three pointer than on a two point attempt. The reason is that three pointers are more likely to result in a long rebound. However, this may be a case where conventional wisdom is wrong, at least based on this analysis by Ken Pomeroy, which suggests that among D1 schools (I think this is men's basketball), the offensive rebounding percentage for 2 point shots is 41% vs. 21% for three point shots (note, that 41% two point rebounding percentage seems high to me).
https://kenpom.com/blog/rebounding-2s-vs-3s/
That seems to be verified this analysis of NBA data:
https://stevenliao.me/post/offensive_reb..._strategy/
there, the offensive rebounding percentage for 3's is 18%, while that for 2's depends on distance to the basket, but looks to be about 25% when you average them all up, which seems more on the mark.
BC
