[needle]

We've seen genuine improvement on the defense side of the ball. April knows how to scheme against pass-happy teams with a dominant rusher on his side, so hopefully/maybe this will develop into a genuine team strength if any of the secondary transfers are actually good and we see some of this past year's frosh take a leap forward. 

Consider the probability that Stanford's offense remains largely ineffective and the possibility that the defense can actually be good against the pass. Then, will the front seven play against the run at a level that's not embarassing? It's a leap of faith, but we also have what's hopefully a coaching upgrade with Thompson. Anyway, I'd put my hopes on that side of the ball rather than the offense reaching any kind of consistency with young QBs and undoubtedly--barring any transfer portal miracles--porous O-line play (to say nothing about the coaching on that side of the ball).

I think you're being somewhat generous in saying we've seen genuine improvement on the defensive side of the ball. It looks like improvement compared to the worst defense in the history of the school, which is what April's first year defense was, but I need to see a lot more before talking about genuine improvement. Our three year trajectory (most recent/salient season that you are calling genuine improvement listed last/bolded):

SP+: 103, 116, 108

FEI: 88, 115, 91

Points Per Non-Garbage Drive: 124, 132, 125

Yards Per Play: 125, 126, 119

Scoring: 112, 132, 116

Total Defense: 114, 132, 108

Pass Efficiency Defense: 89, 132, 125

Run Defense (per carry): 129, 100, 67

Our Year Two defense was better than the Year One defense, but that is too low of a bar to clear to be meaningful. Based on what we returned, the SP+ algorithm spit out that our 2024 defense would be #84 and in reality it turned out #108 by their measures. Compared to the awful state our defense was in at the end of Anderson's time here, what we put out there in 2024 is pretty indistinguishable. Just cannot get behind saying the defense has showed improvement. 

The one area that showed absolutely clear improvement was run defense, so I am confused with you calling that embarrassing. We held TCU, Cal Poly, Syracuse, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Cal, and San Jose State under their season averages per carry (and we were close against Wake Forest). We were generally good against the run. 

Think it's a very big leap of faith to think Thompson is a coaching upgrade over D'Onofrio. D'Onofrio has a good FBS track record whereas Thompson has literally no FBS track record (literally has never played or coached for an FBS team ever in any capacity). D'Onofrio is coming off of coaching arguably our best position unit while Thompson is coming off a catastrophic crashing and burning as Sacramento State's head coach. D'Onofrio had been part of the front seven coaching trifecta with April and Kolodziej not just these last two years but at Wisconsin as well, which is the chemistry/synergy we had hoped would be the most attractive aspect of our entire coaching staff (a pretty low bar since Taylor brought in an entire offensive coaching staff with zero combined days as major college football assistant coaches) while Thompson's chemistry/synergy is with the head coach, who professes to not be involved on defense. This coaching switch is a horror that reportedly led to revolt on the team requiring major damage control to avoid transfers. It seems exceedingly likely to be petty office politics and/or a power grab and moves jarringly away from the concept Taylor has unfailingly sold in public that April owns the defense and is trusted with the defense. I mean, if anybody believes the defense is improving, it is an abomination to then demote April by bringing in an "assistant head coach/co-defensive coordinator" who has never worked with April and whose credential is being Taylor's buddy. This should be a red flag, not a cause for optimism. 

I am still left thinking QB is the least Pollyana-ish/imaginative path to the 2025 team being better.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I don't think the 2024 run defense was embarassing; my worry is that 2025 ends up more like the 2023 run defense (or, given what I perceive as a lack of depth on the defensive line, possibly even worse should an anchor like Franklin get hurt).

Of course, the optics are horrible with the Thompson hire, but the linebackers could have voted with their feet and left the program. April also could have left, as I'm pretty sure his reputation is intact (based almost entirely on his time at Wisconsin, but intact nonetheless). Instead, the team's best defensive guys (so far) have stayed, which to me suggests Thompson has something going for him.

Compare to the offense, where anchor guys Baklenko and Daniels decided their futures looked better elsewhere, and it's just another data point that TT's offense will *never* amount to something even average at the P4 level.

[needle]

We've seen genuine improvement on the defense side of the ball. April knows how to scheme against pass-happy teams with a dominant rusher on his side, so hopefully/maybe this will develop into a genuine team strength if any of the secondary transfers are actually good and we see some of this past year's frosh take a leap forward. 

Consider the probability that Stanford's offense remains largely ineffective and the possibility that the defense can actually be good against the pass. Then, will the front seven play against the run at a level that's not embarassing? It's a leap of faith, but we also have what's hopefully a coaching upgrade with Thompson. Anyway, I'd put my hopes on that side of the ball rather than the offense reaching any kind of consistency with young QBs and undoubtedly--barring any transfer portal miracles--porous O-line play (to say nothing about the coaching on that side of the ball).

I think you're being somewhat generous in saying we've seen genuine improvement on the defensive side of the ball. It looks like improvement compared to the worst defense in the history of the school, which is what April's first year defense was, but I need to see a lot more before talking about genuine improvement. Our three year trajectory (most recent/salient season that you are calling genuine improvement listed last/bolded):

SP+: 103, 116, 108

FEI: 88, 115, 91

Points Per Non-Garbage Drive: 124, 132, 125

Yards Per Play: 125, 126, 119

Scoring: 112, 132, 116

Total Defense: 114, 132, 108

Pass Efficiency Defense: 89, 132, 125

Run Defense (per carry): 129, 100, 67

Our Year Two defense was better than the Year One defense, but that is too low of a bar to clear to be meaningful. Based on what we returned, the SP+ algorithm spit out that our 2024 defense would be #84 and in reality it turned out #108 by their measures. Compared to the awful state our defense was in at the end of Anderson's time here, what we put out there in 2024 is pretty indistinguishable. Just cannot get behind saying the defense has showed improvement. 

The one area that showed absolutely clear improvement was run defense, so I am confused with you calling that embarrassing. We held TCU, Cal Poly, Syracuse, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Cal, and San Jose State under their season averages per carry (and we were close against Wake Forest). We were generally good against the run. 

Think it's a very big leap of faith to think Thompson is a coaching upgrade over D'Onofrio. D'Onofrio has a good FBS track record whereas Thompson has literally no FBS track record (literally has never played or coached for an FBS team ever in any capacity). D'Onofrio is coming off of coaching arguably our best position unit while Thompson is coming off a catastrophic crashing and burning as Sacramento State's head coach. D'Onofrio had been part of the front seven coaching trifecta with April and Kolodziej not just these last two years but at Wisconsin as well, which is the chemistry/synergy we had hoped would be the most attractive aspect of our entire coaching staff (a pretty low bar since Taylor brought in an entire offensive coaching staff with zero combined days as major college football assistant coaches) while Thompson's chemistry/synergy is with the head coach, who professes to not be involved on defense. This coaching switch is a horror that reportedly led to revolt on the team requiring major damage control to avoid transfers. It seems exceedingly likely to be petty office politics and/or a power grab and moves jarringly away from the concept Taylor has unfailingly sold in public that April owns the defense and is trusted with the defense. I mean, if anybody believes the defense is improving, it is an abomination to then demote April by bringing in an "assistant head coach/co-defensive coordinator" who has never worked with April and whose credential is being Taylor's buddy. This should be a red flag, not a cause for optimism. 

I am still left thinking QB is the least Pollyana-ish/imaginative path to the 2025 team being better.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I don't think the 2024 run defense was embarassing; my worry is that 2025 ends up more like the 2023 run defense (or, given what I perceive as a lack of depth on the defensive line, possibly even worse should an anchor like Franklin get hurt).

Of course, the optics are horrible with the Thompson hire, but the linebackers could have voted with their feet and left the program. April also could have left, as I'm pretty sure his reputation is intact (based almost entirely on his time at Wisconsin, but intact nonetheless). Instead, the team's best defensive guys (so far) have stayed, which to me suggests Thompson has something going for him.

Compare to the offense, where anchor guys Baklenko and Daniels decided their futures looked better elsewhere, and it's just another data point that TT's offense will *never* amount to something even average at the P4 level.