[BigJohn043]

The Carlson comparison with Fischer isn't accurate (IMHO).

Carlson became disinterested in the chess championship as it is currently structured.  He remains heavily involved and competes regularly in most other Chess formats and (last I checked) had the highest rating in Rapid and Blitz.  He's also rated highest in classical in some measures. For comparison, Gukesh was 8th in the FIDE ratings earlier this year, ~70 points below Carlson who remains in the top position.

Yes, Carlson disagrees with how the chess championships are structured and no longer participates in that competition.  However, where Fischer "disappeared", Carlson continues to compete and is still the dominant chess player of this era even if he no longer competes in the Championship tournament.

https://en.chessbase.com/post/fide-ratings-july-2024

That's outstanding for Gukesh.  That said, with Magnus Carlsen out of the regular cycle, the world chess championship feels ..... somewhat diminished.  Carlsen has essentially pulled a Fischer.

agreed......Carlsen got bored after winning 5 world championships in a row.  maybe this will rouse his interest enough to compete in the next Candidates tournament.

if Magnus played Gukesh in a match with classical time controls, Magnus would probably be a slight favorite.  i really hope he plays the next Candidates.

In a single game Magnus would be a slight favorite - about 55%. In a 14 game match he would have been a much heavier favorite - about 80%.  And that is just based on the difference in ELO.  This would have been Magnus' 6th match so he really knows this format.  They don't really play this format in any other context.  He also knows how to handle the pressure.  I would put him as a very heavy favorite.

[BigJohn043]

The Carlson comparison with Fischer isn't accurate (IMHO).

Carlson became disinterested in the chess championship as it is currently structured.  He remains heavily involved and competes regularly in most other Chess formats and (last I checked) had the highest rating in Rapid and Blitz.  He's also rated highest in classical in some measures. For comparison, Gukesh was 8th in the FIDE ratings earlier this year, ~70 points below Carlson who remains in the top position.

Yes, Carlson disagrees with how the chess championships are structured and no longer participates in that competition.  However, where Fischer "disappeared", Carlson continues to compete and is still the dominant chess player of this era even if he no longer competes in the Championship tournament.

https://en.chessbase.com/post/fide-ratings-july-2024

That's outstanding for Gukesh.  That said, with Magnus Carlsen out of the regular cycle, the world chess championship feels ..... somewhat diminished.  Carlsen has essentially pulled a Fischer.

agreed......Carlsen got bored after winning 5 world championships in a row.  maybe this will rouse his interest enough to compete in the next Candidates tournament.

if Magnus played Gukesh in a match with classical time controls, Magnus would probably be a slight favorite.  i really hope he plays the next Candidates.

In a single game Magnus would be a slight favorite - about 55%. In a 14 game match he would have been a much heavier favorite - about 80%.  And that is just based on the difference in ELO.  This would have been Magnus' 6th match so he really knows this format.  They don't really play this format in any other context.  He also knows how to handle the pressure.  I would put him as a very heavy favorite.