[Goose]

I wouldn't use basketball as the measuring stick. They need five players a year, with one stud and one with stud potential. Football needs 4x to 5x what basketball gets in a given year. Basketball goes 8-10 deep with five starters. Football has 22 starters and some combination of 44 players on special teams, along with 22 backups who will likely play between "some" and "a lot" when the starters get injured. Football is ravenous for talent, and a decision needs to be made on whether the talent can be attracted.

Agree about basketball vs football and that football is ravenous for talent. IMO the statement needs to be modified by saying "can be attracted and admitted.".

As for NFL vs. the 40 year decision, they're not mutually exclusive. I would argue that Stanford degree is exceptionally valuable. A few numbers I would trot out in front of every recruit:

- 1.6% of all NCAA football players get drafted. A like amount become UDFAs.
- Less than half of all NFL players play more than five years. 
- Most billionaire alumni, Stanford is tied for second.
- 1,127 companies founded by Stanford alumni who graduated in a 12 year span (2006 to 2017)
- 5th in most Fortune 500 CEOs
- 3rd most alums of any university on Forbes 400
- #6 highest post-college salaries, early and mid career. Next highest D1 FBS school outside of the military academies was Cal at #20.

Best Universities and Colleges | Payscale

I am sure this is trotted out before all recruits. To some, it matters, to others, it no longer does. Most football players don't see themselves as CEO material. They don't see themselves as entrepreneurs that are going to found a company. They aren't looking at a "plan B". They are all about NIL money and the opportunity to become an NFL player or at least a celebrity. Call it unrealistic and short-sighted but that is modern America. Of course, that isn't everybody, but many four star and above players see it that way. That is what they have been told was the way ahead all through high school. They are also often quite aware that their academic interest isn't all that profound and that a degree from any "major" college is "good enough" for their purposes. They are probably correct in this belief.

This interpretation is supported by the apparent willingness of so many athletes to burn their bridges with their current academic institution. They attempt to transfer to an unknown notional "other school". Obviously the degree doesn't matter to them, because they have no idea where they will end up. Football however maters greatly to them and they are willing to take a random academic chance to improve their football fortunes. Of course, they often don't succeed in that either and end up either worse off or no better off.   

By the way, in case you wanted to know how Harbaugh turned around the program in such a short time, you might consider this Forbes article:

The Secrets Behind Stanford's Emergence as a Football Powerhouse

The Forbes article is pretty short on specifics. It does point out a lot of the talent was already there. Harbaugh exhibited the leadership to utilize it. By choosing to play power football Stanford occupied a niche that allowed them to maximize their strengths.  What the article does not say is that at that time the NFL was more into "power football" than the college game was. That gave Stanford athletes an advantage. Of course, that is no longer true and the NFL has adopted the "spread" shotgun heavy passing game with RPO as part of the scheme. The approach that worked then has no chance today and we are not even attempting it. We are doing what everybody else is doing.

The article also fails to point out that Harbaugh benefited greatly from the "tunnel workers union" and the "intellectual brutality" meme. This was created by the players, not the coaching staff. There were some very special personalities that created a culture that nourished the high standards of the program. EUTM fed that culture, but did not solely create it. The article does correctly point out that winning makes recruiting good players much easier. It also correctly points out that having Andrew Luck was a very special benefit to the program. However, it was Andrew Luck that made that work. He was a unicorn. He made the choice to go to Stanford, Harbaugh did not. Harbaugh (and others) made it possible, which was great, but it was AL who delivered the goods and then stayed the extra year. This situation cannot be replicated at will. That is what made it "special". 

The world in which these events occurred no longer exists. There was no portal then, and no NIL. Would Richard Sherman have stayed at Stanford if he could transfer without sitting out a year and USC would get him a million dollar NIL deal to do so?  We will never know, but I seriously doubt it. He had had all he wanted of JH. The fact must be faced that "back in the day" once you chose a school changing your mind had a significant cost. The benefits that each school could offer were exactly the same, baring some kind of cheating. What "worked" then will not work at all now, unfortunately.

[Goose]

I wouldn't use basketball as the measuring stick. They need five players a year, with one stud and one with stud potential. Football needs 4x to 5x what basketball gets in a given year. Basketball goes 8-10 deep with five starters. Football has 22 starters and some combination of 44 players on special teams, along with 22 backups who will likely play between "some" and "a lot" when the starters get injured. Football is ravenous for talent, and a decision needs to be made on whether the talent can be attracted.

Agree about basketball vs football and that football is ravenous for talent. IMO the statement needs to be modified by saying "can be attracted and admitted.".

As for NFL vs. the 40 year decision, they're not mutually exclusive. I would argue that Stanford degree is exceptionally valuable. A few numbers I would trot out in front of every recruit:

- 1.6% of all NCAA football players get drafted. A like amount become UDFAs.
- Less than half of all NFL players play more than five years. 
- Most billionaire alumni, Stanford is tied for second.
- 1,127 companies founded by Stanford alumni who graduated in a 12 year span (2006 to 2017)
- 5th in most Fortune 500 CEOs
- 3rd most alums of any university on Forbes 400
- #6 highest post-college salaries, early and mid career. Next highest D1 FBS school outside of the military academies was Cal at #20.

Best Universities and Colleges | Payscale

I am sure this is trotted out before all recruits. To some, it matters, to others, it no longer does. Most football players don't see themselves as CEO material. They don't see themselves as entrepreneurs that are going to found a company. They aren't looking at a "plan B". They are all about NIL money and the opportunity to become an NFL player or at least a celebrity. Call it unrealistic and short-sighted but that is modern America. Of course, that isn't everybody, but many four star and above players see it that way. That is what they have been told was the way ahead all through high school. They are also often quite aware that their academic interest isn't all that profound and that a degree from any "major" college is "good enough" for their purposes. They are probably correct in this belief.

This interpretation is supported by the apparent willingness of so many athletes to burn their bridges with their current academic institution. They attempt to transfer to an unknown notional "other school". Obviously the degree doesn't matter to them, because they have no idea where they will end up. Football however maters greatly to them and they are willing to take a random academic chance to improve their football fortunes. Of course, they often don't succeed in that either and end up either worse off or no better off.   

By the way, in case you wanted to know how Harbaugh turned around the program in such a short time, you might consider this Forbes article:

The Secrets Behind Stanford's Emergence as a Football Powerhouse

The Forbes article is pretty short on specifics. It does point out a lot of the talent was already there. Harbaugh exhibited the leadership to utilize it. By choosing to play power football Stanford occupied a niche that allowed them to maximize their strengths.  What the article does not say is that at that time the NFL was more into "power football" than the college game was. That gave Stanford athletes an advantage. Of course, that is no longer true and the NFL has adopted the "spread" shotgun heavy passing game with RPO as part of the scheme. The approach that worked then has no chance today and we are not even attempting it. We are doing what everybody else is doing.

The article also fails to point out that Harbaugh benefited greatly from the "tunnel workers union" and the "intellectual brutality" meme. This was created by the players, not the coaching staff. There were some very special personalities that created a culture that nourished the high standards of the program. EUTM fed that culture, but did not solely create it. The article does correctly point out that winning makes recruiting good players much easier. It also correctly points out that having Andrew Luck was a very special benefit to the program. However, it was Andrew Luck that made that work. He was a unicorn. He made the choice to go to Stanford, Harbaugh did not. Harbaugh (and others) made it possible, which was great, but it was AL who delivered the goods and then stayed the extra year. This situation cannot be replicated at will. That is what made it "special". 

The world in which these events occurred no longer exists. There was no portal then, and no NIL. Would Richard Sherman have stayed at Stanford if he could transfer without sitting out a year and USC would get him a million dollar NIL deal to do so?  We will never know, but I seriously doubt it. He had had all he wanted of JH. The fact must be faced that "back in the day" once you chose a school changing your mind had a significant cost. The benefits that each school could offer were exactly the same, baring some kind of cheating. What "worked" then will not work at all now, unfortunately.