I really hope Buster was deking the entire baseball world when he stated that we were done with the lineup that we have. We missed the wild card spot by nine games which is a big number. Also missing the playoffs, but in front of us were the DBacks (89 wins), the Cubs and Cardinals (83 each).
I don't see the Dodgers (98 wins), Philllies (95), Brewers (93) or Padres (93) falling off much, though the Brewers may drop back a bit. The Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks all won 89.
It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.
Here's what I think needs to happen -- at least 75% of this -- for the Giants to get into the playoffs:
1. Adames needs to keep form, in fact improve a bit from his 3.1 WAR...seems odd his WAR was that low with 32 HRs.
2. Chapman can't slip, needs at least 6.0 WAR (had 7.1).
3. Wade and Flores needs to return to form and get near .800 OPS (up from .761 and .595 and I sure hope it was just the knee for Wilmer).
4. Fitzgerald needs to avoid the sophomore slump and keep it up for a full year. It could happen.
5. Yaz needs a 2.5 WAR year
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound.
9. Would be nice if Encarnacion could improve, and after a MLB season if he could get to .750 OPS (from .701), that would be acceptable. Failing that, Matos or Luciano would have to improve -- a lot. Hopefully, one of them will be the Ramos of 2025.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck.
11. Webb needs some fielding support.
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary.
14. The good pitchers can't fall back; e.g., Tyler Rogers and Hjelle.
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc.
18. Verlander needs to win 13.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023.
I think 15 of the 20 need to happen for the Giants to have a shot at the playoffs.
The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs.
WAR by position. Disastrous at most positions:
3B 1st. Stay healthy, Chappy.
RF 12th. Congrats, Yaz, you get to keep your job.
1B 15th. Eldridge can't come fast enough.
RP 15th. Relief pitching was slightly better than average.
LF 17th. Ramos should improve that.
C 19th. If Bailey bats better, this should improve.
CF 21st. Lee should improve that.
DH 21st. Can Jerar do better?
SP 21st. Starting pitchers should do better this year.
SS 23rd...but Milwaukee (Adames) was only 19th. Hmmmm.
2B 28th. Hopefully Fitzpatrick changes that.
It's said you need to be strong up the middle. C, CF, SS and 2B don't look particularly strong.
Thoughts?
I don't see the Dodgers (98 wins), Philllies (95), Brewers (93) or Padres (93) falling off much, though the Brewers may drop back a bit. The Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks all won 89.
It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.
Here's what I think needs to happen -- at least 75% of this -- for the Giants to get into the playoffs:
1. Adames needs to keep form, in fact improve a bit from his 3.1 WAR...seems odd his WAR was that low with 32 HRs.
2. Chapman can't slip, needs at least 6.0 WAR (had 7.1).
3. Wade and Flores needs to return to form and get near .800 OPS (up from .761 and .595 and I sure hope it was just the knee for Wilmer).
4. Fitzgerald needs to avoid the sophomore slump and keep it up for a full year. It could happen.
5. Yaz needs a 2.5 WAR year
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound.
9. Would be nice if Encarnacion could improve, and after a MLB season if he could get to .750 OPS (from .701), that would be acceptable. Failing that, Matos or Luciano would have to improve -- a lot. Hopefully, one of them will be the Ramos of 2025.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck.
11. Webb needs some fielding support.
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary.
14. The good pitchers can't fall back; e.g., Tyler Rogers and Hjelle.
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc.
18. Verlander needs to win 13.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023.
I think 15 of the 20 need to happen for the Giants to have a shot at the playoffs.
The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs.
WAR by position. Disastrous at most positions:
3B 1st. Stay healthy, Chappy.
RF 12th. Congrats, Yaz, you get to keep your job.
1B 15th. Eldridge can't come fast enough.
RP 15th. Relief pitching was slightly better than average.
LF 17th. Ramos should improve that.
C 19th. If Bailey bats better, this should improve.
CF 21st. Lee should improve that.
DH 21st. Can Jerar do better?
SP 21st. Starting pitchers should do better this year.
SS 23rd...but Milwaukee (Adames) was only 19th. Hmmmm.
2B 28th. Hopefully Fitzpatrick changes that.
It's said you need to be strong up the middle. C, CF, SS and 2B don't look particularly strong.
Thoughts?
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