Thoughts on your thoughts...
It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.
This is addition by subtraction. I was happy to see all of those guys leave. Same...all easily replaceable with what we have and for much less $$$. BTW, just wondering...Brandon Belt. He hasn't formally retired. .858 OPS in 2023 with Toronto. Only Yaz and Wade are full-time lefty bats. Excellent fielding first baseman, 43 career Rtot at 1B, better than average range. Why not invite him to camp?
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge.
It’s all about sustaining his spring stats into summer. Can he do it? If the Giants want to contend in the future, Bailey has to produce. He may be the most important player on the team. Have to agree. I'm at a loss as to why he broke down so much and so quickly. Hopefully he has the stamina this year.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.
It’s anyone’s guess regarding how he will do. Due to his injury, he is really a rookie heading into the season. Hopefully he can adjust. He's not a kid, he's 26 this year.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound.
I agree. As a whole, it will be nice to finally watch guys who can field their position effectively. The Giants had the fifth-largest difference between ERA and FIP in MLB which augurs well for better fielding If they perform average to better-than-average defense...which they did three years ago...maybe they give up fewer runs. I'm torn because the Giants allowed the second fewest unearned runs (46) in MLB which argues the other direction. Conversely, they were 24th in WHIP. If, between the improvement of the young pitchers, the addition of the new pitchers, the subtraction of the ineffective pitchers they can get to just average in WHIP (from 1.301 to 1.248), then maybe they give up 40 fewer runs. The Giants were 24-24 in one-run games last year. If they go 32-16, that's a eight game improvement.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck.
This is an area where I am optimistic. I’m looking forward to seeing what the young guys can do. The future depends on them making significant headway this season. If we can get into the top 1/3rd of pitching, I think we can win in the high 80s.
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year.
We will know by June whether picking him up was a smart decision. I have my doubts. I take his July vs. August splits as a good thing. His July batting-against splits were .212 .350 .485 .835 and his August splits were materially improved at .178 .307 .343 .649. So I think he should work out.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary.
Yep. Doval was all over the map last year. Had an okay April March and a great May. Flat out tanked in June and July. Had a terrific August and a mediocre Sept/Oct. I know the pitching coach can speak Spanish, hope there are fewer communications issues.
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).
A new regime equals better staff management. I think we'll see more discipline, fewer stupid errors, fewer lineup idiocies (if Farhan was really dictating lineups...man, I don't even know what to say about that), and fewer injuries.
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140.
He learned a lot last year. Applying those learnings will yield at least 140 innings. Maybe. Last year's 109 was 40 more than the 65 2/3 he threw in 2023. Be nice if he can extend.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc.
I think that at least a couple of them will. I have the greatest confidence in this, actually. I think the additional year, better discipline, current pitching coach will result in collective improvement.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt.
Another Wow! Comment. Heck, if even one of that group produces at league average, I would be surprised. I think two will be league average or better. Schmitt has figured it out. He'll have a very strong year. Villar was actually better than his career average last year (.727 OPS vs. .688) and was close to league average. The other three...meh. Wisely...it would be a surprise. He improved materially from 2023 to 2024 (.497 OPS to .623) but his splits gradually worsened by month, from .845 OPS in May to .495 in Sept/Oct. Meckler wasn't even with the big club though he OPS of .866 in Sacto and cut way down on strikeouts. And I will stipulate that McCray is unlikely to have a strong season. But he's only 24.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023.
While I do not expect anyone will come out of spring training with Randy Elliot numbers, I do expect a big mid-season deal if the Giants are reasonably close to the group vying for a playoff spot. Unlike his predecessor, I think Posey will be a player at the trade deadline. I think you're right, if we're within 2-3 games of a playoff spot by July 30. And I think Huff will do well....258/.313/.455/.768 career numbers for Texas. He's 27. Had fielding issues in 2022, but fielded well in 2023 and 2024, no passed balls or errors. He can play some 1B, BTW. Huff did well in the 2019 futures game, hit a two run home run and was the MVP.
The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs.
As noted earlier, I believe the playoffs are a long shot at best this year. At this point, I’m in the 75-80 wins camp. Once we get closer to Opening Day, it will be time to post the annual prediction. If we can finish 9th in runs allowed per game, 8th in fielding and 12th in runs scored...all of which are within reach, assuming better management, better coaching, better training, better discipline, fewer injuries, more maturity, less field-level meddling from the front office and a judicious acquisition at the trade deadline...then I think our 80 wins become 88 wins and maybe we sneak into the playoffs. Particularly with injuries. We had T6th most injured players (25), 6th most lost payroll, and 12th most days lost of all MLB teams.
It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.
This is addition by subtraction. I was happy to see all of those guys leave. Same...all easily replaceable with what we have and for much less $$$. BTW, just wondering...Brandon Belt. He hasn't formally retired. .858 OPS in 2023 with Toronto. Only Yaz and Wade are full-time lefty bats. Excellent fielding first baseman, 43 career Rtot at 1B, better than average range. Why not invite him to camp?
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge.
It’s all about sustaining his spring stats into summer. Can he do it? If the Giants want to contend in the future, Bailey has to produce. He may be the most important player on the team. Have to agree. I'm at a loss as to why he broke down so much and so quickly. Hopefully he has the stamina this year.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.
It’s anyone’s guess regarding how he will do. Due to his injury, he is really a rookie heading into the season. Hopefully he can adjust. He's not a kid, he's 26 this year.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound.
I agree. As a whole, it will be nice to finally watch guys who can field their position effectively. The Giants had the fifth-largest difference between ERA and FIP in MLB which augurs well for better fielding If they perform average to better-than-average defense...which they did three years ago...maybe they give up fewer runs. I'm torn because the Giants allowed the second fewest unearned runs (46) in MLB which argues the other direction. Conversely, they were 24th in WHIP. If, between the improvement of the young pitchers, the addition of the new pitchers, the subtraction of the ineffective pitchers they can get to just average in WHIP (from 1.301 to 1.248), then maybe they give up 40 fewer runs. The Giants were 24-24 in one-run games last year. If they go 32-16, that's a eight game improvement.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck.
This is an area where I am optimistic. I’m looking forward to seeing what the young guys can do. The future depends on them making significant headway this season. If we can get into the top 1/3rd of pitching, I think we can win in the high 80s.
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year.
We will know by June whether picking him up was a smart decision. I have my doubts. I take his July vs. August splits as a good thing. His July batting-against splits were .212 .350 .485 .835 and his August splits were materially improved at .178 .307 .343 .649. So I think he should work out.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary.
Yep. Doval was all over the map last year. Had an okay April March and a great May. Flat out tanked in June and July. Had a terrific August and a mediocre Sept/Oct. I know the pitching coach can speak Spanish, hope there are fewer communications issues.
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).
A new regime equals better staff management. I think we'll see more discipline, fewer stupid errors, fewer lineup idiocies (if Farhan was really dictating lineups...man, I don't even know what to say about that), and fewer injuries.
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140.
He learned a lot last year. Applying those learnings will yield at least 140 innings. Maybe. Last year's 109 was 40 more than the 65 2/3 he threw in 2023. Be nice if he can extend.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc.
I think that at least a couple of them will. I have the greatest confidence in this, actually. I think the additional year, better discipline, current pitching coach will result in collective improvement.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt.
Another Wow! Comment. Heck, if even one of that group produces at league average, I would be surprised. I think two will be league average or better. Schmitt has figured it out. He'll have a very strong year. Villar was actually better than his career average last year (.727 OPS vs. .688) and was close to league average. The other three...meh. Wisely...it would be a surprise. He improved materially from 2023 to 2024 (.497 OPS to .623) but his splits gradually worsened by month, from .845 OPS in May to .495 in Sept/Oct. Meckler wasn't even with the big club though he OPS of .866 in Sacto and cut way down on strikeouts. And I will stipulate that McCray is unlikely to have a strong season. But he's only 24.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023.
While I do not expect anyone will come out of spring training with Randy Elliot numbers, I do expect a big mid-season deal if the Giants are reasonably close to the group vying for a playoff spot. Unlike his predecessor, I think Posey will be a player at the trade deadline. I think you're right, if we're within 2-3 games of a playoff spot by July 30. And I think Huff will do well....258/.313/.455/.768 career numbers for Texas. He's 27. Had fielding issues in 2022, but fielded well in 2023 and 2024, no passed balls or errors. He can play some 1B, BTW. Huff did well in the 2019 futures game, hit a two run home run and was the MVP.
The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs.
As noted earlier, I believe the playoffs are a long shot at best this year. At this point, I’m in the 75-80 wins camp. Once we get closer to Opening Day, it will be time to post the annual prediction. If we can finish 9th in runs allowed per game, 8th in fielding and 12th in runs scored...all of which are within reach, assuming better management, better coaching, better training, better discipline, fewer injuries, more maturity, less field-level meddling from the front office and a judicious acquisition at the trade deadline...then I think our 80 wins become 88 wins and maybe we sneak into the playoffs. Particularly with injuries. We had T6th most injured players (25), 6th most lost payroll, and 12th most days lost of all MLB teams.
Audaces fortuna iuvat