[Mick]

Thanks Lex, "Giants", and especially Mick for the excellent discussion of the SF Giants in the 2025 preseason/Cactus league.  I've mostly been a lurker on this thread but it's been an excellent way to keep in contact with the club and how the "kids" on the Giants squad are doing.  

Great stuff ... and thank you.

Jung Ho Lee getting an MRI on his back. Originally thought to be  minor middle back pain.  But not improving.  He is one of the players they least can afford to lose.  Not much OF depth.  Particularly CF.

Matos and McCray. That's about it.

Luis Matos spring training stats: .380/.404/.540/.944. 11 RBIs and just four strikeouts in 50 AB. Leading the team with 19 hits. T2 on the team with two stolen bases.

Grant McCray spring training stats: .297/.435/.486/.921. 12 strikeouts in 37 ABs, 8 walks, 4 stolen bases. Better fielder than Matos. Also has the team's only triple.

BTW, Giants are 16-5-3. Still best in MLB.

Speaking of which, The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee wrote a rather insightful article today skewering the notion that spring trading stats matter.

No insights necessary. Everyone knows that spring training stats don't matter. And if we didn't, Lex will be only too happy to point that out... ;).

And I'd rather the Giants be 16-5 than 5-16. 

Based upon a paper (link below) presented to MIT by Dan Rosenheck, a data scientist at The Economist, some spring training stats do matter, even though it is a small sample size. Home runs, BABIP, ERA, all the averages don't really matter. Different environment, uneven competition. On the other hand, strikeouts and walks do matter, because they stabilize so quickly. There's a strong correlation between spring training and the regular season with those two stats. Same with contact rates and stolen bases. Significant correlation. And, not surprisingly, they're more predictive for healthy veterans than rookies and veterans coming off of long injuries.

Looks like the most accurate are stolen bases. Giants are 17th in overall stolen bases, 21st in stolen base percentage. The Giants pitching staff have given up the fewest walks, by far. And they've struck out the second most batters. I think those are predictive stats, this is a very good pitching staff. On the hitting side, the Giants have struck out the 8th most in MLB and have the 20th most walks. Those are predictive. They have the third best OPS, 4th most HRs and fifth most runs scored, not predictive, unfortunately.

Ten year old study, 46 slides. Highly entertaining, if you like that sort of thing.

Spring Forward.pptx

[Mick]

Thanks Lex, "Giants", and especially Mick for the excellent discussion of the SF Giants in the 2025 preseason/Cactus league.  I've mostly been a lurker on this thread but it's been an excellent way to keep in contact with the club and how the "kids" on the Giants squad are doing.  

Great stuff ... and thank you.

Jung Ho Lee getting an MRI on his back. Originally thought to be  minor middle back pain.  But not improving.  He is one of the players they least can afford to lose.  Not much OF depth.  Particularly CF.

Matos and McCray. That's about it.

Luis Matos spring training stats: .380/.404/.540/.944. 11 RBIs and just four strikeouts in 50 AB. Leading the team with 19 hits. T2 on the team with two stolen bases.

Grant McCray spring training stats: .297/.435/.486/.921. 12 strikeouts in 37 ABs, 8 walks, 4 stolen bases. Better fielder than Matos. Also has the team's only triple.

BTW, Giants are 16-5-3. Still best in MLB.

Speaking of which, The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee wrote a rather insightful article today skewering the notion that spring trading stats matter.

No insights necessary. Everyone knows that spring training stats don't matter. And if we didn't, Lex will be only too happy to point that out... ;).

And I'd rather the Giants be 16-5 than 5-16. 

Based upon a paper (link below) presented to MIT by Dan Rosenheck, a data scientist at The Economist, some spring training stats do matter, even though it is a small sample size. Home runs, BABIP, ERA, all the averages don't really matter. Different environment, uneven competition. On the other hand, strikeouts and walks do matter, because they stabilize so quickly. There's a strong correlation between spring training and the regular season with those two stats. Same with contact rates and stolen bases. Significant correlation. And, not surprisingly, they're more predictive for healthy veterans than rookies and veterans coming off of long injuries.

Looks like the most accurate are stolen bases. Giants are 17th in overall stolen bases, 21st in stolen base percentage. The Giants pitching staff have given up the fewest walks, by far. And they've struck out the second most batters. I think those are predictive stats, this is a very good pitching staff. On the hitting side, the Giants have struck out the 8th most in MLB and have the 20th most walks. Those are predictive. They have the third best OPS, 4th most HRs and fifth most runs scored, not predictive, unfortunately.

Ten year old study, 46 slides. Highly entertaining, if you like that sort of thing.

Spring Forward.pptx