[Farm93]

9

Our prior hires over the last 30 years were not in the elite coach tier with the exception of Walsh 2.0.

Elite coaches could expect at least $9 million per year to return to college football unless they are well beyond their prime.    Just doesn't seem like the coaches would want to come to Stanford and, more importantly, Stanford would not want to pay the going rate for big name coaches.  

So back to the more realistic options....

Given the way the portal works here in 2025 one place of value would be to snag coordinator that is a net loser in the now open transfer portal.   Imagine a mid level FBS team that has a strong QB on their roster, but the QB jumps into the portal to join a program with HC potential.     In situations like that the offensive coordinator might be an option since one of the reasons to stay would have just left the program this week.

The other path I really hope Luck considers will be African American NFL coordinators or position coaches.   There are dozens of African American coaches in the NFL that are more or less stuck in their current roles.   They get invited to interviews for HC roles every year but the owners seem to always find some other option.    Many of these coaches should have received NFL head coaching roles by now, but they just don't get that chance. 

Given Stanford's strong legacy with African American coaches I would hope Stanford could find someone willing to give Stanford a try.    That route would probably give us someone in the Dennis Green situation where the new hire will be looking for NFL roles before their first season is over, but at least the hire might impress recruits.   And unlike in Dennis Green's era the players could always use the portal to leave if the coach lands an NFL role in 2026 or 2027, so getting a chance to work with a coach fresh from the NFL could be compelling with little downside.    If the coach is good enough to finally get that head coaching spot in the NFL in 2026 or 2027, then presumably the players were part of a turnaround story that should enable them to secure big NIL deals in the SEC or BigTen.

Just to clarify your intent because i agree with where you are going: i think we are saying that finding a good African American head coach would be a plus to the program.  We are not saying that we need to find the best available African American  unless  he is the best available coach.  I would give points for the African American heritage because it can make a man a more effective head coach. But I want the best coach, period.

How does an African American heritage make a man a more effective head coach?

Happy to answer this one.

First, we have recruiting.   Many of the best HS players are African-Americans and their families often want their children to have at least someone on the staff that is African-American too. Is this true for every family?  Obviously not.   But there are some players, and/or their families, particularly in the African-American community that would prefer coaches that understand the unique challenges that might emerge for an African-American athlete studying thousands of miles away from home and yet also having to play games as the away team in the South.   Given Stanford plays in ACC & SEC country it would be nice to have this key recruiting edge. 

Next, and more critically, we have discrimination.   The NFL has long had the Rooney rule, but NFL owners as a group still don't want African-American head coaches.  A similar dynamic has been common in the SEC and the ACC.  Far too often, those widely successful coordinators have interviewed several times for head coach roles, but.....well....let's just call it what it is....racism prevents them from even getting a chance.

So logically, if you are a program that is not exactly a desirable stop and you are now looking for a coach at a really bad time, then perhaps it would be best to find someone that has been systematically overlooked. 

Think of it like Moneyball for coaches.   The best coaching value in football will be with African-Americans because society undervalues them.   

Stanford, thankfully, has had a few successful African American football head coaches.    So IMHO this is the time to play head coaching Moneyball again.   There are a number of NFL and SEC African-American coordinators that just can't get a break, and therefore are going to be the most open to taking on this rather difficult challenge.   (Admissions, transfer portal restrictions, limited fanbase, empty stadium, very limited student support, wrong time zone, awful time in the calendar to join the program, etc.)

Presumably this Moneyball approach would be applicable for Hispanic-Americans or any female coaches, but with less certainty on the possibility of recruiting benefits.  

The real key for the Moneyball approach would be to hire the types the others are overlooking for whatever reason.    Much like the Oakland A's of the 1990s understood they were not going to win the free agency battle against the Yankees, Braves, Red Sox.   Stanford has to understand this particular opening is unlikely to appeal to types that are on the short list for major SEC, BigTen and NFL roles. 

The Moneyball play for Stanford?   African-Americans.

[Farm93]

9

Our prior hires over the last 30 years were not in the elite coach tier with the exception of Walsh 2.0.

Elite coaches could expect at least $9 million per year to return to college football unless they are well beyond their prime.    Just doesn't seem like the coaches would want to come to Stanford and, more importantly, Stanford would not want to pay the going rate for big name coaches.  

So back to the more realistic options....

Given the way the portal works here in 2025 one place of value would be to snag coordinator that is a net loser in the now open transfer portal.   Imagine a mid level FBS team that has a strong QB on their roster, but the QB jumps into the portal to join a program with HC potential.     In situations like that the offensive coordinator might be an option since one of the reasons to stay would have just left the program this week.

The other path I really hope Luck considers will be African American NFL coordinators or position coaches.   There are dozens of African American coaches in the NFL that are more or less stuck in their current roles.   They get invited to interviews for HC roles every year but the owners seem to always find some other option.    Many of these coaches should have received NFL head coaching roles by now, but they just don't get that chance. 

Given Stanford's strong legacy with African American coaches I would hope Stanford could find someone willing to give Stanford a try.    That route would probably give us someone in the Dennis Green situation where the new hire will be looking for NFL roles before their first season is over, but at least the hire might impress recruits.   And unlike in Dennis Green's era the players could always use the portal to leave if the coach lands an NFL role in 2026 or 2027, so getting a chance to work with a coach fresh from the NFL could be compelling with little downside.    If the coach is good enough to finally get that head coaching spot in the NFL in 2026 or 2027, then presumably the players were part of a turnaround story that should enable them to secure big NIL deals in the SEC or BigTen.

Just to clarify your intent because i agree with where you are going: i think we are saying that finding a good African American head coach would be a plus to the program.  We are not saying that we need to find the best available African American  unless  he is the best available coach.  I would give points for the African American heritage because it can make a man a more effective head coach. But I want the best coach, period.

How does an African American heritage make a man a more effective head coach?

Happy to answer this one.

First, we have recruiting.   Many of the best HS players are African-Americans and their families often want their children to have at least someone on the staff that is African-American too. Is this true for every family?  Obviously not.   But there are some players, and/or their families, particularly in the African-American community that would prefer coaches that understand the unique challenges that might emerge for an African-American athlete studying thousands of miles away from home and yet also having to play games as the away team in the South.   Given Stanford plays in ACC & SEC country it would be nice to have this key recruiting edge. 

Next, and more critically, we have discrimination.   The NFL has long had the Rooney rule, but NFL owners as a group still don't want African-American head coaches.  A similar dynamic has been common in the SEC and the ACC.  Far too often, those widely successful coordinators have interviewed several times for head coach roles, but.....well....let's just call it what it is....racism prevents them from even getting a chance.

So logically, if you are a program that is not exactly a desirable stop and you are now looking for a coach at a really bad time, then perhaps it would be best to find someone that has been systematically overlooked. 

Think of it like Moneyball for coaches.   The best coaching value in football will be with African-Americans because society undervalues them.   

Stanford, thankfully, has had a few successful African American football head coaches.    So IMHO this is the time to play head coaching Moneyball again.   There are a number of NFL and SEC African-American coordinators that just can't get a break, and therefore are going to be the most open to taking on this rather difficult challenge.   (Admissions, transfer portal restrictions, limited fanbase, empty stadium, very limited student support, wrong time zone, awful time in the calendar to join the program, etc.)

Presumably this Moneyball approach would be applicable for Hispanic-Americans or any female coaches, but with less certainty on the possibility of recruiting benefits.  

The real key for the Moneyball approach would be to hire the types the others are overlooking for whatever reason.    Much like the Oakland A's of the 1990s understood they were not going to win the free agency battle against the Yankees, Braves, Red Sox.   Stanford has to understand this particular opening is unlikely to appeal to types that are on the short list for major SEC, BigTen and NFL roles. 

The Moneyball play for Stanford?   African-Americans.