First thoughts on recapping the season and next year.
The most disappointing season in a long time, certainly of Esquer's tenure.
It wasn't the worst team in that span - those would be the mercifully strike-shortened 2020 season and then last year. But those two teams were extremely young and it would have been very surprising if they hadn't struggled. This year's team wasn't weak, it was a good team that somehow fell apart.
Anyone following the team knows the basics. Started out 15-3, ranked #14 and seemed well on the way to at least host a regional. Then finals --> Cal collapse --> everything collapse. Starting with cal, they lost 16 of 18 conference games - 5 by run rule. A little recovery towards the end of the season going 4-2 in the final two series (but nothing in the ACC Tourney). A winning record barely but disastrous 11-19 in conference.
There were some injury problems - Scott, Lim, Bates, MacDonald were key players who missed time. Probably others.
But, that wasn't really the story. Timely hitting went away, power hitting went away, and pitching crumbled.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Can't throw strikes, so then starting grooving it --> big hits.
It was also one of those seasons where all the little things that may not really matter, and may not be worse than others, drive me crazy while if the team were winning would just be chalked up to the vagaries of baseball or just something I notice as an obsessive fan.
So ...
- Pitching can't throw strikes.
- Esquer loves bunting but the team cannot bunt well. I generally am not thrilled with the strategy, but if bunt pop out or foul three times then it's definitely a bad strategy.
- Bad and conservative base running. Lots of holding guys from second at third on singles (or from first at third on doubles). Not only fifth fewest stolen bases in the country (299 teams) but just about the only team successful less than half the time.
- Weak defense. This despite being tied for third in ACC in fielding percentage. That's a terrible stat for defense. Not only are errors too rare an event to be meaningful but many mistakes aren't errors (like the strange unwritten rule that if the ball doesn't touch your glove while fielding it's not an error). It certainly doesn't cover things like missed double plays.
The trend in pitching under Esquer is now officially troubling, even if there have been some individual excellent players and development along the way.
2018 ERA = 2.83 (Esquer year 1)
2019 ERA = 3.62
2020 ERA = 3.50 (COVID shortened season)
2021 ERA = 4.63
2022 ERA = 4.23
2023 ERA = 5.72
2024 ERA = 6.53
2025 ERA = 6.42
While this year was an improvement over last year, I would say anemically so considering the relative situations. Last year, we had almost all new arms - Dugan was the only returnee with any significant previous innings. This year almost every inning pitched came back (Nathan Fleischli with 5.2 IP was the only loss).
Interesting conversation I had with a HS coach in the stands during the BC series. Even with Scott scratched due to injury, Stanford kept pulling out pitchers throwing 94+. The coach turns to me and says "where did Stanford get all these arms? ... but what's their ERA??" Sure enough, 3 HBP and 4 walks ensue and the game slips away.
The offense was so-so. Batting average just slipped under 0.300 at the end of the season but was still sixth in the ACC. But that helped us to second last in the ACC (15th) in runs/game; too little power, too few walks (last in ACC), too little timely hitting.
A few pretty good frosh seasons.
Marsh was our best frosh, out of the blue for me. Highest OPS on the team. Very impressive.
We would be saying Sasaki had a really promising first year if we hadn't known who he was coming in.
Bates was promising before being injured, while playing out of position.
None of the many frosh pitchers distinguished themselves or played a lot - as usual live arms but no control and none pitched more than 12.2 innings.
Normally in looking to next year I'd go through a run down of the returning players and notes on the signed frosh. That seems pointless right now. Firstly, if the team is going to go anywhere they need to get out of the funk they got in and play to their talent. Secondly, with transfers and all, it's hard to tell who will be on the team next year.
I have heard of four transfers out so far. That's not so devastating as I didn't expect any of those four back.
Scott to Georgia. Uber to Notre Dame. Saum to Hawaii. Becerra to somewhere.
Uber, Saum, and Becerra were all seniors who have another year of eligibility. Scott was a junior I had expected to be in the draft and go ... to the minors (going pro no longer being an accurate description).
Who knows who else departs.
Haskins has played four years but was injured his sophomore year and played few enough games he could possibly get a medical redshirt. Don't expect it - at least not with us.
In the past we expected any starting junior to go pro, but now with NIL and a somewhat abbreviated draft that is less certain - now they'll just transfer.
Our starting(ish) juniors include: Nati (probably best draft prospect in this group, but not that high), MacDonald (pretty good soph year, but injured most of this), Dugan (our best ERA but only became starter as injuries mounted), O'Haran (was supposed to be closer), Hott (played well as a spot starter but I don't think on any MLB radars).
So, we'll probably lose 3/4 of our infield, our catcher, and our #2 and #6 pitchers in innings pitched.
There will be plenty of talent left behind, but things have to develop better.
Our frosh class includes headliners Brock Sells (MLB.com #62 draft prospect, OF), Brock Ketelsen (#161 draft prospect, OF/P).
However, the players I noted in the class include Colt Peterson (related to Kyle?) and Quinten Marsh, younger bro of this year's frosh phenom.
At the moment, PG has Stanford class at #21 in average player rating but #3 for 2026.
(Stanford always has smaller classes than most, as in most sports.)
The most disappointing season in a long time, certainly of Esquer's tenure.
It wasn't the worst team in that span - those would be the mercifully strike-shortened 2020 season and then last year. But those two teams were extremely young and it would have been very surprising if they hadn't struggled. This year's team wasn't weak, it was a good team that somehow fell apart.
Anyone following the team knows the basics. Started out 15-3, ranked #14 and seemed well on the way to at least host a regional. Then finals --> Cal collapse --> everything collapse. Starting with cal, they lost 16 of 18 conference games - 5 by run rule. A little recovery towards the end of the season going 4-2 in the final two series (but nothing in the ACC Tourney). A winning record barely but disastrous 11-19 in conference.
There were some injury problems - Scott, Lim, Bates, MacDonald were key players who missed time. Probably others.
But, that wasn't really the story. Timely hitting went away, power hitting went away, and pitching crumbled.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Can't throw strikes, so then starting grooving it --> big hits.
It was also one of those seasons where all the little things that may not really matter, and may not be worse than others, drive me crazy while if the team were winning would just be chalked up to the vagaries of baseball or just something I notice as an obsessive fan.
So ...
- Pitching can't throw strikes.
- Esquer loves bunting but the team cannot bunt well. I generally am not thrilled with the strategy, but if bunt pop out or foul three times then it's definitely a bad strategy.
- Bad and conservative base running. Lots of holding guys from second at third on singles (or from first at third on doubles). Not only fifth fewest stolen bases in the country (299 teams) but just about the only team successful less than half the time.
- Weak defense. This despite being tied for third in ACC in fielding percentage. That's a terrible stat for defense. Not only are errors too rare an event to be meaningful but many mistakes aren't errors (like the strange unwritten rule that if the ball doesn't touch your glove while fielding it's not an error). It certainly doesn't cover things like missed double plays.
The trend in pitching under Esquer is now officially troubling, even if there have been some individual excellent players and development along the way.
2018 ERA = 2.83 (Esquer year 1)
2019 ERA = 3.62
2020 ERA = 3.50 (COVID shortened season)
2021 ERA = 4.63
2022 ERA = 4.23
2023 ERA = 5.72
2024 ERA = 6.53
2025 ERA = 6.42
While this year was an improvement over last year, I would say anemically so considering the relative situations. Last year, we had almost all new arms - Dugan was the only returnee with any significant previous innings. This year almost every inning pitched came back (Nathan Fleischli with 5.2 IP was the only loss).
Interesting conversation I had with a HS coach in the stands during the BC series. Even with Scott scratched due to injury, Stanford kept pulling out pitchers throwing 94+. The coach turns to me and says "where did Stanford get all these arms? ... but what's their ERA??" Sure enough, 3 HBP and 4 walks ensue and the game slips away.
The offense was so-so. Batting average just slipped under 0.300 at the end of the season but was still sixth in the ACC. But that helped us to second last in the ACC (15th) in runs/game; too little power, too few walks (last in ACC), too little timely hitting.
A few pretty good frosh seasons.
Marsh was our best frosh, out of the blue for me. Highest OPS on the team. Very impressive.
We would be saying Sasaki had a really promising first year if we hadn't known who he was coming in.
Bates was promising before being injured, while playing out of position.
None of the many frosh pitchers distinguished themselves or played a lot - as usual live arms but no control and none pitched more than 12.2 innings.
Normally in looking to next year I'd go through a run down of the returning players and notes on the signed frosh. That seems pointless right now. Firstly, if the team is going to go anywhere they need to get out of the funk they got in and play to their talent. Secondly, with transfers and all, it's hard to tell who will be on the team next year.
I have heard of four transfers out so far. That's not so devastating as I didn't expect any of those four back.
Scott to Georgia. Uber to Notre Dame. Saum to Hawaii. Becerra to somewhere.
Uber, Saum, and Becerra were all seniors who have another year of eligibility. Scott was a junior I had expected to be in the draft and go ... to the minors (going pro no longer being an accurate description).
Who knows who else departs.
Haskins has played four years but was injured his sophomore year and played few enough games he could possibly get a medical redshirt. Don't expect it - at least not with us.
In the past we expected any starting junior to go pro, but now with NIL and a somewhat abbreviated draft that is less certain - now they'll just transfer.
Our starting(ish) juniors include: Nati (probably best draft prospect in this group, but not that high), MacDonald (pretty good soph year, but injured most of this), Dugan (our best ERA but only became starter as injuries mounted), O'Haran (was supposed to be closer), Hott (played well as a spot starter but I don't think on any MLB radars).
So, we'll probably lose 3/4 of our infield, our catcher, and our #2 and #6 pitchers in innings pitched.
There will be plenty of talent left behind, but things have to develop better.
Our frosh class includes headliners Brock Sells (MLB.com #62 draft prospect, OF), Brock Ketelsen (#161 draft prospect, OF/P).
However, the players I noted in the class include Colt Peterson (related to Kyle?) and Quinten Marsh, younger bro of this year's frosh phenom.
At the moment, PG has Stanford class at #21 in average player rating but #3 for 2026.
(Stanford always has smaller classes than most, as in most sports.)