[Mick]

I really hope Buster was deking the entire baseball world when he stated that we were done with the lineup that we have. We missed the wild card spot by nine games which is a big number. Also missing the playoffs, but in front of us were the DBacks (89 wins), the Cubs and Cardinals (83 each).

I don't see the Dodgers (98 wins), Philllies (95), Brewers (93) or Padres (93) falling off much, though the Brewers may drop back a bit. The Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks all won 89.

It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.

Early season prognostications:

Here's what I think needs to happen -- at least 75% of this -- for the Giants to get into the playoffs:

1. Adames needs to keep form, in fact improve a bit from his 3.1 WAR...seems odd his WAR was that low with 32 HRs.  3.6 WAR. Hit.
2. Chapman can't slip, needs at least 6.0 WAR (had 7.1). 4.1 WAR. Miss
3. Wade and Flores needs to return to form and get near .800 OPS (up from .761 and .595 and I sure hope it was just the knee for Wilmer).  Miss.
4. Fitzgerald needs to avoid the sophomore slump and keep it up for a full year. It could happen.  Miss.
5. Yaz needs a 2.5 WAR year.  1.7 for Giants, 1.0 for Royals. Miss.
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge. Big Miss at .22/.277/.325/.602.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.  Miss at .266/.327/.407/.735, although hit 31 doubles and 12 triples...30+/10+ is very difficult to do, Mays did it twice, only five other SF Giants have done it.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound. I should have been worried. Near bottom in Rtot. Miss.
9. Would be nice if Encarnacion could improve, and after a MLB season if he could get to .750 OPS (from .701), that would be acceptable. Failing that, Matos or Luciano would have to improve -- a lot. Hopefully, one of them will be the Ramos of 2025. Matos, OPS of.691; Encarnacion OPS of .578, Luciano didn't play. Miss.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck. Finished 21st in MLB in WAR. Big, big miss.
11. Webb needs some fielding support. Hit. Webb finished 15-11, the team did well when he was pitching
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year. 11-8, 10th in NL in ERA. Calling it a hit.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary. Miss, for both actually.
14. The good pitchers can't fall back; e.g., Tyler Rogers and Hjelle. Rogers hit, Hjelle miss. 1/2 credit.
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).  Misses across the board. Best was Beck, he was just okay.
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140. Miss. 67 innings.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc. Roupp & Bivens kinda did, Harrison traded (but did great with Boston, 3.00 ERA), Black did poorly. Half hit, half miss, a generous grade.
18. Verlander needs to win 13. Miss.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt. Okay season from Schmitt, all others failed. Miss.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023. Hit with Dominic Smith. Big surprise.

I think 15 of the 20 need to happen for the Giants to have a shot at the playoffs. Final score, 5 hits, 15 misses. What is shocking is that we missed the playoffs by just three games at 81-81. Reds made it in with 83 wins, Mets missed it with 83 wins..

The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39. 17th again at 4.35 below MLB average of 4.45. Not good.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average. 13th at 4.22 runs allowed, better than league average  of 4.45.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs. Not surprisingly, Giants finished 27th again with a worse Rtot mark at -51. League average was 82 errors, Giants had 95. League fielding average was .986, Giants finished at .984 (23rd).

WAR by position. Disastrous at most positions:

3B 1st. Stay healthy, Chappy.   2nd.
RF 12th. Congrats, Yaz, you get to keep your job. 16th.
1B 15th. Eldridge can't come fast enough. 24th. Rough.
RP 15th. Relief pitching was slightly better than average. 7th. Big improvement.
LF 17th. Ramos should improve that. 20th. Drop.
C  19th. If Bailey bats better, this should improve. 22nd. Big drop.
CF 21st. Lee should improve that. 18th. A little better
DH 21st. Can Jerar do better 16th. Jerar mainly hurt, Smith/Devers/Eldridge/Schmitt did okay.
SP 21st. Starting pitchers should do better this year. 21st. Same.
SS 23rd...but Milwaukee (Adames) was only 19th. Hmmmm. 15th. better.
2B 28th. Hopefully Fitzpatrick changes that. 12th. Schmitt/Fitzpatrick/Koss.

It's said you need to be strong up the middle. C, CF, SS and 2B don't look particularly strong.

Thoughts?

[Mick]

I really hope Buster was deking the entire baseball world when he stated that we were done with the lineup that we have. We missed the wild card spot by nine games which is a big number. Also missing the playoffs, but in front of us were the DBacks (89 wins), the Cubs and Cardinals (83 each).

I don't see the Dodgers (98 wins), Philllies (95), Brewers (93) or Padres (93) falling off much, though the Brewers may drop back a bit. The Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks all won 89.

It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.

Early season prognostications:

Here's what I think needs to happen -- at least 75% of this -- for the Giants to get into the playoffs:

1. Adames needs to keep form, in fact improve a bit from his 3.1 WAR...seems odd his WAR was that low with 32 HRs.  3.6 WAR. Hit.
2. Chapman can't slip, needs at least 6.0 WAR (had 7.1). 4.1 WAR. Miss
3. Wade and Flores needs to return to form and get near .800 OPS (up from .761 and .595 and I sure hope it was just the knee for Wilmer).  Miss.
4. Fitzgerald needs to avoid the sophomore slump and keep it up for a full year. It could happen.  Miss.
5. Yaz needs a 2.5 WAR year.  1.7 for Giants, 1.0 for Royals. Miss.
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge. Big Miss at .22/.277/.325/.602.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.  Miss at .266/.327/.407/.735, although hit 31 doubles and 12 triples...30+/10+ is very difficult to do, Mays did it twice, only five other SF Giants have done it.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound. I should have been worried. Near bottom in Rtot. Miss.
9. Would be nice if Encarnacion could improve, and after a MLB season if he could get to .750 OPS (from .701), that would be acceptable. Failing that, Matos or Luciano would have to improve -- a lot. Hopefully, one of them will be the Ramos of 2025. Matos, OPS of.691; Encarnacion OPS of .578, Luciano didn't play. Miss.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck. Finished 21st in MLB in WAR. Big, big miss.
11. Webb needs some fielding support. Hit. Webb finished 15-11, the team did well when he was pitching
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year. 11-8, 10th in NL in ERA. Calling it a hit.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary. Miss, for both actually.
14. The good pitchers can't fall back; e.g., Tyler Rogers and Hjelle. Rogers hit, Hjelle miss. 1/2 credit.
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).  Misses across the board. Best was Beck, he was just okay.
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140. Miss. 67 innings.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc. Roupp & Bivens kinda did, Harrison traded (but did great with Boston, 3.00 ERA), Black did poorly. Half hit, half miss, a generous grade.
18. Verlander needs to win 13. Miss.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt. Okay season from Schmitt, all others failed. Miss.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023. Hit with Dominic Smith. Big surprise.

I think 15 of the 20 need to happen for the Giants to have a shot at the playoffs. Final score, 5 hits, 15 misses. What is shocking is that we missed the playoffs by just three games at 81-81. Reds made it in with 83 wins, Mets missed it with 83 wins..

The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39. 17th again at 4.35 below MLB average of 4.45. Not good.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average. 13th at 4.22 runs allowed, better than league average  of 4.45.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs. Not surprisingly, Giants finished 27th again with a worse Rtot mark at -51. League average was 82 errors, Giants had 95. League fielding average was .986, Giants finished at .984 (23rd).

WAR by position. Disastrous at most positions:

3B 1st. Stay healthy, Chappy.   2nd.
RF 12th. Congrats, Yaz, you get to keep your job. 16th.
1B 15th. Eldridge can't come fast enough. 24th. Rough.
RP 15th. Relief pitching was slightly better than average. 7th. Big improvement.
LF 17th. Ramos should improve that. 20th. Drop.
C  19th. If Bailey bats better, this should improve. 22nd. Big drop.
CF 21st. Lee should improve that. 18th. A little better
DH 21st. Can Jerar do better 16th. Jerar mainly hurt, Smith/Devers/Eldridge/Schmitt did okay.
SP 21st. Starting pitchers should do better this year. 21st. Same.
SS 23rd...but Milwaukee (Adames) was only 19th. Hmmmm. 15th. better.
2B 28th. Hopefully Fitzpatrick changes that. 12th. Schmitt/Fitzpatrick/Koss.

It's said you need to be strong up the middle. C, CF, SS and 2B don't look particularly strong.

Thoughts?