[OCcardinal]

Massey gives Stanford an 87% chance of beating SMU and a 67% chance of beating Cal. Notre Dame's odds are: VT (65%), WF (61%) and Pitt (72%). The most likely outcome is they both win out and Stanford finishes 2nd.

Depends how you define “most likely”.  Stanford’s chance of winning out is 58% but Notre Dame’s chance of winning all three games is only 29%, assuming that the three games are independent.

BC

You are right. Should have paid more attention in statistics. :)

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The way I look at it is that we need at least 2 points to mathematically secure second place and a first-round bye in the ACC tournament. We can control our own destiny by beating either SMU or Cal, or by tying both. Being co-champions with Notre Dame would be nice, but not fully up to us. Of course, for NCAA seeding the better we do in our remaining regular conference and ACC tournament games, the better our seeding.

Did I leave something out? I understand it could get complicated if we end up with Stanford, VA and NCSU all at 22.  See: Tiebreaking rules  In any event, an AI query tells me he probability of NCSU sweeping its 3 games against Louisville (23%), Duke (13%) and UNC (8%) is less than 1/4 of 1% (a 1/417 chance, to be precise). So I'm not too worried about NCSU. And, of course, if Stanford fails to beat SMU, we have other concerns.

[OCcardinal]

Massey gives Stanford an 87% chance of beating SMU and a 67% chance of beating Cal. Notre Dame's odds are: VT (65%), WF (61%) and Pitt (72%). The most likely outcome is they both win out and Stanford finishes 2nd.

Depends how you define “most likely”.  Stanford’s chance of winning out is 58% but Notre Dame’s chance of winning all three games is only 29%, assuming that the three games are independent.

BC

You are right. Should have paid more attention in statistics. :)

---

The way I look at it is that we need at least 2 points to mathematically secure second place and a first-round bye in the ACC tournament. We can control our own destiny by beating either SMU or Cal, or by tying both. Being co-champions with Notre Dame would be nice, but not fully up to us. Of course, for NCAA seeding the better we do in our remaining regular conference and ACC tournament games, the better our seeding.

Did I leave something out? I understand it could get complicated if we end up with Stanford, VA and NCSU all at 22.  See: Tiebreaking rules  In any event, an AI query tells me he probability of NCSU sweeping its 3 games against Louisville (23%), Duke (13%) and UNC (8%) is less than 1/4 of 1% (a 1/417 chance, to be precise). So I'm not too worried about NCSU. And, of course, if Stanford fails to beat SMU, we have other concerns.