[JJJ]

19th round :)

Oops, the old eyes are still bleary. Thanks for the correction.
But do you think he will sign, since he’s a senior?

In the meantime, a Story in the Japan Times on Sasaki which adds nothing new but is a good introductory piece for people who don’t follow the story obsessively (like I do).

I'd be gobsmacked if Sasaki returned to the Farm. I just can't imagine that would happen.
My guess would be more towards the SoftBank Hawks.
They outwardly want him more than Marlins. I presume he'd get more immediate pay and quicker top team play there.
However, their precedent in insisting on 9 years of service before being able to jump to MLB might give him pause if his end goal is really MLB.

That is exactly why I think there’s a chance he returns. He was in the same position two years ago (expected no.1 NPB draft pick) when he didn’t know he’d be chosen by SoftBank, and he chose Stanford, to pave his own path and better himself as a whole person. The NPB money (far less than MLB if he makes it) will still be there next year. If he asks me (he won’t), I would advise him to return. But I’ve already said that way too often… :)

His Marlins MLB draft pick value is $239k.
I'm guessing his Hawks offer is far higher.
Though as you say, his long term MLB potential could be more, or far more, depending on Hawks offer.

I do not believe that MLB = NPB in the estimation of any of these athletes, meaning more money in NPB is not necessarily more desirable than less money in MLB when the future upside is far higher for the latter. For athletes who have seen the MLB upside and want to eke out a few more good contracts before retiring, more NPB money > less MLB money.

As was the case with Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and many others who were posted and received piddly first contracts, it’s not about the up front money for athletes at this level. If they perform like they believe they will, the money will follow. I have two observations: 1) so many people said that Ohtani’s Dodgers contract was too high to justify, yet their ad revenues alone from Japanese companies falling over each other to place ads at Dodger Stadium (and even opponents’ stadiums!) already made it all worthwhile, and 2) the whole point in skipping the NPB draft to go to Stanford was so he wouldn’t have to waste 9 of his “prime years” waiting to go to MLB. If you want to talk $ (again, not his primary focus, imho), the highest paid NPB player (according to Google) in 2026 is Raidel Martinez at about $7.4mln at current exchange rates (and foreigners tend to get paid more because they are expected to perform right away and cut quickly if they don’t) and the highest paid Japanese player is Arihara at $3.7mln.

I submit that Rintaro Sasaki could easily make up his “loss” by opting for MLB over “high” guaranteed Softbank money if he plays like he thinks he can. And he has always bet on himself. (And the beauty of this situation for him is that the NPB money will still be there if he went to MLB and didn’t make it. An effective free put option, zero premium paid.)

Totally off topic, but it could be interesting to see what happens if Rintaro eventually went to the Dodgers while Roki was there. “Ri. Sasaki” and “Ro. Sasaki”??? Reminds me of Jas. Collins and Jar. Collins. :)
It won’t happen, though.

[JJJ]

19th round :)

Oops, the old eyes are still bleary. Thanks for the correction.
But do you think he will sign, since he’s a senior?

In the meantime, a Story in the Japan Times on Sasaki which adds nothing new but is a good introductory piece for people who don’t follow the story obsessively (like I do).

I'd be gobsmacked if Sasaki returned to the Farm. I just can't imagine that would happen.
My guess would be more towards the SoftBank Hawks.
They outwardly want him more than Marlins. I presume he'd get more immediate pay and quicker top team play there.
However, their precedent in insisting on 9 years of service before being able to jump to MLB might give him pause if his end goal is really MLB.

That is exactly why I think there’s a chance he returns. He was in the same position two years ago (expected no.1 NPB draft pick) when he didn’t know he’d be chosen by SoftBank, and he chose Stanford, to pave his own path and better himself as a whole person. The NPB money (far less than MLB if he makes it) will still be there next year. If he asks me (he won’t), I would advise him to return. But I’ve already said that way too often… :)

His Marlins MLB draft pick value is $239k.
I'm guessing his Hawks offer is far higher.
Though as you say, his long term MLB potential could be more, or far more, depending on Hawks offer.

I do not believe that MLB = NPB in the estimation of any of these athletes, meaning more money in NPB is not necessarily more desirable than less money in MLB when the future upside is far higher for the latter. For athletes who have seen the MLB upside and want to eke out a few more good contracts before retiring, more NPB money > less MLB money.

As was the case with Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and many others who were posted and received piddly first contracts, it’s not about the up front money for athletes at this level. If they perform like they believe they will, the money will follow. I have two observations: 1) so many people said that Ohtani’s Dodgers contract was too high to justify, yet their ad revenues alone from Japanese companies falling over each other to place ads at Dodger Stadium (and even opponents’ stadiums!) already made it all worthwhile, and 2) the whole point in skipping the NPB draft to go to Stanford was so he wouldn’t have to waste 9 of his “prime years” waiting to go to MLB. If you want to talk $ (again, not his primary focus, imho), the highest paid NPB player (according to Google) in 2026 is Raidel Martinez at about $7.4mln at current exchange rates (and foreigners tend to get paid more because they are expected to perform right away and cut quickly if they don’t) and the highest paid Japanese player is Arihara at $3.7mln.

I submit that Rintaro Sasaki could easily make up his “loss” by opting for MLB over “high” guaranteed Softbank money if he plays like he thinks he can. And he has always bet on himself. (And the beauty of this situation for him is that the NPB money will still be there if he went to MLB and didn’t make it. An effective free put option, zero premium paid.)

Totally off topic, but it could be interesting to see what happens if Rintaro eventually went to the Dodgers while Roki was there. “Ri. Sasaki” and “Ro. Sasaki”??? Reminds me of Jas. Collins and Jar. Collins. :)
It won’t happen, though.