[Farm93]

The problem in all these scenarios is assuming that the Rose Bowl will pick Stanford. It took Texas over kal once, so clearly the Rose Bowl has no problem abridging its tradition when its needs suit it.

Definitely not true!

In that year, if a non-conference winner was in the 3rd or 4th in the BCS standings then it had to get one of the at-large invites.

Texas worked its political magic and essentially lobbied for the pollster votes.  At the time Texas had been a tough luck runner up for a few years, and many felt it was quite deserving of getting into a BCS game.  When the final polls came out, Texas had just enough support to get that automatic at-large bid.

The best thing for a 2nd place 11-1 Stanford team is for Oregon and Boise State to be in the BCS game.  This would place the Big Ten champion in the Rose Bowl.  In that world, the Rose Bowl would pick Stanford.  Lots of uncertainties about the hypothetical, but the Rose Bowl pick would be very clear.

If Boise or TCU does not make the BCS game that is a problem.  Say the BCS game is Oregon vs. Oklahoma.  Then Boise/TCU would be in the Rose Bowl by rule, just as Texas slid in, and the Big Ten champ would be their opponent.  Stanford could get an at-large bid elsewhere, but then Luck or JH will need to be the draw.  That likely only happens if it is very clear that Luck and/or JH are NFL bound.

But none of these BCS possibilities will matter if Stanford is not a top 10 team with an 11-1 record.

[Farm93]

The problem in all these scenarios is assuming that the Rose Bowl will pick Stanford. It took Texas over kal once, so clearly the Rose Bowl has no problem abridging its tradition when its needs suit it.

Definitely not true!

In that year, if a non-conference winner was in the 3rd or 4th in the BCS standings then it had to get one of the at-large invites.

Texas worked its political magic and essentially lobbied for the pollster votes.  At the time Texas had been a tough luck runner up for a few years, and many felt it was quite deserving of getting into a BCS game.  When the final polls came out, Texas had just enough support to get that automatic at-large bid.

The best thing for a 2nd place 11-1 Stanford team is for Oregon and Boise State to be in the BCS game.  This would place the Big Ten champion in the Rose Bowl.  In that world, the Rose Bowl would pick Stanford.  Lots of uncertainties about the hypothetical, but the Rose Bowl pick would be very clear.

If Boise or TCU does not make the BCS game that is a problem.  Say the BCS game is Oregon vs. Oklahoma.  Then Boise/TCU would be in the Rose Bowl by rule, just as Texas slid in, and the Big Ten champ would be their opponent.  Stanford could get an at-large bid elsewhere, but then Luck or JH will need to be the draw.  That likely only happens if it is very clear that Luck and/or JH are NFL bound.

But none of these BCS possibilities will matter if Stanford is not a top 10 team with an 11-1 record.