[Goose]

According to ESPN Analytics, we have the following chances to win our remaining games:
24.2% vs NC State
2.5% vs Louisville (yes, 2.5%!)
6.8% vs VT
24.2% vs Kal
10.2% vs SMU

Using these probabilities there is a 46.9% we win no more games and go 3-9. The probability of going 4-8 is 39.9%. The probability of going 5-7 is 11.7%. The probability of 6-6 is 1.4%. The probability of 7-5 is 0.069%. The probability of 8-4 is 0.001%. As others have pointed out the probability of winning at least four games is slightly greater than 50-50.

Of course these probabilities are not cast in stone. Of particular interest IMO is our future trajectory vs Kal's future trajectory. If Kal gets their act together they have on paper a significantly better team that we do. However, they aren't at present playing up to their on-paper potential, and it is possible that discrepancy will increase. If it does that can greatly greatly improve our chances.

[Goose]

According to ESPN Analytics, we have the following chances to win our remaining games:
24.2% vs NC State
2.5% vs Louisville (yes, 2.5%!)
6.8% vs VT
24.2% vs Kal
10.2% vs SMU

Using these probabilities there is a 46.9% we win no more games and go 3-9. The probability of going 4-8 is 39.9%. The probability of going 5-7 is 11.7%. The probability of 6-6 is 1.4%. The probability of 7-5 is 0.069%. The probability of 8-4 is 0.001%. As others have pointed out the probability of winning at least four games is slightly greater than 50-50.

Of course these probabilities are not cast in stone. Of particular interest IMO is our future trajectory vs Kal's future trajectory. If Kal gets their act together they have on paper a significantly better team that we do. However, they aren't at present playing up to their on-paper potential, and it is possible that discrepancy will increase. If it does that can greatly greatly improve our chances.