12-01-2017, 08:26 AM
D takes prophylactic measures and stiffens at the right time, Trojans get caught holding the bag (penalties) and Love conquers all, 34-31.
Entered on the form
Entered on the form
Pac-12 Championship Predictions
12-01-2017, 09:45 AM
Here's a look at our performance by month, with ypp differential and opponents' average FEI rating (lower is better):
What this tells me is that the offense was really good in August/Sept. The defenses we played weren't the best, but we had good results against them. In October the average defense was basically the same as Aug/Sept, but we played worse. In November the average defense was much better (going from 2.46 to 1.51 is going from playing UCLA to Notre Dame) and our performance stayed about the same as in October.
Now, do you think we should be staying roughly the same in ypp differential as the offense changes? In that case there's no real difference between Oct/Nov. But if you expect better defenses to compress it a bit, then the performance was probably better. It's not clear to me which should be true so I dunno.
| Month | YPP Diff | Ave FEI |
| Aug/Sept | 1.67 | 2.41 |
| Oct | 0.38 | 2.46 |
| Nov | 0.32 | 1.51 |
What this tells me is that the offense was really good in August/Sept. The defenses we played weren't the best, but we had good results against them. In October the average defense was basically the same as Aug/Sept, but we played worse. In November the average defense was much better (going from 2.46 to 1.51 is going from playing UCLA to Notre Dame) and our performance stayed about the same as in October.
Now, do you think we should be staying roughly the same in ypp differential as the offense changes? In that case there's no real difference between Oct/Nov. But if you expect better defenses to compress it a bit, then the performance was probably better. It's not clear to me which should be true so I dunno.
Here's a look at our performance by month, with ypp differential and opponents' average FEI rating (lower is better):
What this tells me is that the offense was really good in August/Sept. The defenses we played weren't the best, but we had good results against them. In October the average defense was basically the same as Aug/Sept, but we played worse. In November the average defense was much better (going from 2.46 to 1.51 is going from playing UCLA to Notre Dame) and our performance stayed about the same as in October.
Now, do you think we should be staying roughly the same in ypp differential as the offense changes? In that case there's no real difference between Oct/Nov. But if you expect better defenses to compress it a bit, then the performance was probably better. It's not clear to me which should be true so I dunno.
| Month | YPP Diff | Ave FEI |
| Aug/Sept | 1.67 | 2.41 |
| Oct | 0.38 | 2.46 |
| Nov | 0.32 | 1.51 |
What this tells me is that the offense was really good in August/Sept. The defenses we played weren't the best, but we had good results against them. In October the average defense was basically the same as Aug/Sept, but we played worse. In November the average defense was much better (going from 2.46 to 1.51 is going from playing UCLA to Notre Dame) and our performance stayed about the same as in October.
Now, do you think we should be staying roughly the same in ypp differential as the offense changes? In that case there's no real difference between Oct/Nov. But if you expect better defenses to compress it a bit, then the performance was probably better. It's not clear to me which should be true so I dunno.
12-01-2017, 10:52 AM
Just realized that we only had 3 games in which we had better than 50 per cent success on 3rd down conversions: Rice (6-9), Oregon (7-12), and UW (10-18). So I hope we can avoid 3rd and longs tonight...
Pax et Bonum
Just realized that we only had 3 games in which we had better than 50 per cent success on 3rd down conversions: Rice (6-9), Oregon (7-12), and UW (10-18). So I hope we can avoid 3rd and longs tonight...
Pax et Bonum
12-01-2017, 12:59 PM
(12-01-2017, 07:35 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:KJ has been a boost to the offense but the impact has been statistically obscured due to:
1) gimpy Bryce Love
2) tougher defenses
Of course 1) wont really matter for Champ game purposes. 2) will, as SC is a worse defense than WSU, ND and UW.
that said, my head says Stanford loses this. My hearts doing the picking though:
Stanford 37
SC 27
Both are of course very true. Now, we do have one thread elsewhere that suggested that 1) was actually a blessing as it forced Shaw to pass more (even though there is not a ton of evidence that a larger proportion of our plays are passes). And, when people talking about the offense "looking so much better", they don't usually make much of a mental allowance for strength of the opponent's defense.
BC
(12-01-2017, 07:35 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:KJ has been a boost to the offense but the impact has been statistically obscured due to:
1) gimpy Bryce Love
2) tougher defenses
Of course 1) wont really matter for Champ game purposes. 2) will, as SC is a worse defense than WSU, ND and UW.
that said, my head says Stanford loses this. My hearts doing the picking though:
Stanford 37
SC 27
Both are of course very true. Now, we do have one thread elsewhere that suggested that 1) was actually a blessing as it forced Shaw to pass more (even though there is not a ton of evidence that a larger proportion of our plays are passes). And, when people talking about the offense "looking so much better", they don't usually make much of a mental allowance for strength of the opponent's defense.
BC
12-01-2017, 04:04 PM
(12-01-2017, 12:59 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Now, we do have one thread elsewhere that suggested that 1) was actually a blessing as it forced Shaw to pass more (even though there is not a ton of evidence that a larger proportion of our plays are passes).Â
That's a very subtle way to write, "though we have actually run a greater proportion of our plays since Love was injured (particularly when Costello was the QB)".
(12-01-2017, 12:59 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Now, we do have one thread elsewhere that suggested that 1) was actually a blessing as it forced Shaw to pass more (even though there is not a ton of evidence that a larger proportion of our plays are passes).Â
That's a very subtle way to write, "though we have actually run a greater proportion of our plays since Love was injured (particularly when Costello was the QB)".
12-01-2017, 04:14 PM
![[Image: laocoon_belvedere_vat1.325x0-is-pid1481.jpg]](http://www.livius.org/site/assets/files/1534/laocoon_belvedere_vat1.325x0-is-pid1481.jpg)
Iguanas get past snakes, but not Trojans.
Heirs of Iguana 34
Heirs of Laocoon 30
Bonus for the memories: https://youtu.be/m2eeGLaxSUs
Iguanas get past snakes, but not Trojans.
Heirs of Iguana 34
Heirs of Laocoon 30
Bonus for the memories: https://youtu.be/m2eeGLaxSUs
12-01-2017, 10:34 PM
(11-30-2017, 10:58 PM)cardcrimson link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=18188.msg215923#msg215923 date=1512105703]
Tough to predict a turnaround on a team that beat us by 18 last time, with Love not at full strength. We will be better, but love wont 18 points better.
SC 30
Stanford 27
Hope Im wrong.
BC
No respect for what KJ brings to the table?
[/quote]
Damned. I had really hoped to have been wrong on this one. I just had a bad feeling. The game really wasn't as close as the final score indicated.
BC
(11-30-2017, 10:58 PM)cardcrimson link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=18188.msg215923#msg215923 date=1512105703]
Tough to predict a turnaround on a team that beat us by 18 last time, with Love not at full strength. We will be better, but love wont 18 points better.
SC 30
Stanford 27
Hope Im wrong.
BC
No respect for what KJ brings to the table?
[/quote]
Damned. I had really hoped to have been wrong on this one. I just had a bad feeling. The game really wasn't as close as the final score indicated.
BC
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