[81alum]

With the caveat that all the young women will need to live up to their recruiting ratings.  Injuries, lack of development, etc.... all happen.

BC

This. Times 1000. Wilson was at one point the number 4 recruit in the country. Due to a series of seriously unfortunate incidents, now into her junior year and we still haven't seen her able to get serious minutes. 

Oregon State just redshirted 6'9" Andrea Aquino because she needs more time to get in D1 playing shape. She was ESPN no. 7, OSU's highest rated recruit ever. Meanwhile Gulich wasn't ranked (international) and Second Team All-American Sydney Wiese was no. 80 her year.

Closer to home, Taylor Rooks was ESPN No. 18. Barely played for us her frosh year, then transferred. Kailee Johnson was No. 20 (and I think at one point low teens) - Tara basically said she never really seriously committed to bball once on the Farm.

Injuries happen. Life happens. Interests change. Bodies change. Recruiting is step one, but there's no guarantees. Let's lap up the joy of our great incoming recruits, and cross our fingers everything goes according to plan. (Hi woofing gods!)

All using ESPN ratings--not because they are better than the others, but just for consistency:

And there was Alison Beebe, no. 13 in 2012, who never played due to injury.  Meanwhile, that year Jamie Weisner went to OSU at 41 and  Michala Mabrey to Notre Dame at 33.

In 2013 we got Erica McCall at 11.  As we all remember, she turned into a very good player, taking a couple of years to get there.  As has been pointed out, we got Kailee Johnson at 20.  Meanwhile, that year Washington got Kelsy Plum at 26.  Putting Plum down at 26 may not have been the greatest injustice of 2013. That year we got Karlie Samuelson at 77.

In 2014 we got Rooks at 18, McPhee at 25, and Kaylee Johnson at 30.  UConn got Kia Nurse at 33.

All illustrations of the point that the high school rankings are at best a starting point.

HOWEVER, as has also often been remarked on this board, the top handful of recruits generally do turn into four year starters and often into All Americans.  The randomness of the rating services seem to be more true 11-100 than they do 1-10 and especially 1-5.  So much attention is focused on those at the top, and so many teams evaluate them and pursue them, that their ratings seem to be based on a lot more evidence than even a short way down the list.

Looking at the top 5 in 2014: A'ja Wilson, Brianna Turner, Ariel Atkins, Jordin Canada, and Kelsey Mitchell.  4 are in the WNBA and Brianna Turner is still playing in college after a redshirt year--and if she proves she is back to 100% she will be in the WNBA next year.  That seems pretty typical for the top 5.

There are gems who are not highly rated.  But pretty much all the highly rated players--barring injury--are gems.

[81alum]

With the caveat that all the young women will need to live up to their recruiting ratings.  Injuries, lack of development, etc.... all happen.

BC

This. Times 1000. Wilson was at one point the number 4 recruit in the country. Due to a series of seriously unfortunate incidents, now into her junior year and we still haven't seen her able to get serious minutes. 

Oregon State just redshirted 6'9" Andrea Aquino because she needs more time to get in D1 playing shape. She was ESPN no. 7, OSU's highest rated recruit ever. Meanwhile Gulich wasn't ranked (international) and Second Team All-American Sydney Wiese was no. 80 her year.

Closer to home, Taylor Rooks was ESPN No. 18. Barely played for us her frosh year, then transferred. Kailee Johnson was No. 20 (and I think at one point low teens) - Tara basically said she never really seriously committed to bball once on the Farm.

Injuries happen. Life happens. Interests change. Bodies change. Recruiting is step one, but there's no guarantees. Let's lap up the joy of our great incoming recruits, and cross our fingers everything goes according to plan. (Hi woofing gods!)

All using ESPN ratings--not because they are better than the others, but just for consistency:

And there was Alison Beebe, no. 13 in 2012, who never played due to injury.  Meanwhile, that year Jamie Weisner went to OSU at 41 and  Michala Mabrey to Notre Dame at 33.

In 2013 we got Erica McCall at 11.  As we all remember, she turned into a very good player, taking a couple of years to get there.  As has been pointed out, we got Kailee Johnson at 20.  Meanwhile, that year Washington got Kelsy Plum at 26.  Putting Plum down at 26 may not have been the greatest injustice of 2013. That year we got Karlie Samuelson at 77.

In 2014 we got Rooks at 18, McPhee at 25, and Kaylee Johnson at 30.  UConn got Kia Nurse at 33.

All illustrations of the point that the high school rankings are at best a starting point.

HOWEVER, as has also often been remarked on this board, the top handful of recruits generally do turn into four year starters and often into All Americans.  The randomness of the rating services seem to be more true 11-100 than they do 1-10 and especially 1-5.  So much attention is focused on those at the top, and so many teams evaluate them and pursue them, that their ratings seem to be based on a lot more evidence than even a short way down the list.

Looking at the top 5 in 2014: A'ja Wilson, Brianna Turner, Ariel Atkins, Jordin Canada, and Kelsey Mitchell.  4 are in the WNBA and Brianna Turner is still playing in college after a redshirt year--and if she proves she is back to 100% she will be in the WNBA next year.  That seems pretty typical for the top 5.

There are gems who are not highly rated.  But pretty much all the highly rated players--barring injury--are gems.

[2006alum]

81, yes, totally true about the tippy top recruits. I had debated about noting that too, which is why Jones + Brink are such brobdingnagian commitments. Our own top 10 recruits from the past decade or so - Appel, Wiggins, Pedersen, Nneka, Chiney, and Williams - have all been contributors from day one. I suspect in retrospect Lexie should have been top 10 and probably lost out a bit because she was not in a highly scouted part of the country (eastern Washington). In my mind, she's at least as D1 ready from day one as any of our prior top 10s. So yes, fingers crossed that trajectory continues over the next two seasons!

[2006alum]

81, yes, totally true about the tippy top recruits. I had debated about noting that too, which is why Jones + Brink are such brobdingnagian commitments. Our own top 10 recruits from the past decade or so - Appel, Wiggins, Pedersen, Nneka, Chiney, and Williams - have all been contributors from day one. I suspect in retrospect Lexie should have been top 10 and probably lost out a bit because she was not in a highly scouted part of the country (eastern Washington). In my mind, she's at least as D1 ready from day one as any of our prior top 10s. So yes, fingers crossed that trajectory continues over the next two seasons!

[BobK]

Great post 2006. At one point Soph year in HS Kailee was #1. I saw her play several games and was thrilled when she committed.

[BobK]

Great post 2006. At one point Soph year in HS Kailee was #1. I saw her play several games and was thrilled when she committed.

[Jskass]

Funny you guys mention Kailee. Watched OSU games in Vancouver last week and felt like Taya Corosdale is what Kailee would have been.

[Jskass]

Funny you guys mention Kailee. Watched OSU games in Vancouver last week and felt like Taya Corosdale is what Kailee would have been.

[CompSci87]

Also looking forward to welcoming Azzi Fudd when the time comes.

FWIW, folks on the UConn board seem sure either they or ND are getting her. Let's hope they're wrong again!

[CompSci87]

Also looking forward to welcoming Azzi Fudd when the time comes.

FWIW, folks on the UConn board seem sure either they or ND are getting her. Let's hope they're wrong again!

[BosCard]

Totally agree with 81alum.  Another point is that most superstar players (I'm defining as "so good that they alone are enough to get their team to a final four") tend to be ranked in the top 3 coming out of high school.  Here is some further evidence based on the last few classes which have played at least 3 years of college.  Based on my own subjective judgement, I've color-coded superstars in red, very good players in blue and good players in black.  The main point is that top 3 players tend to pan out as superstars or very good players.

2009 – Brittney Griner, Kelsey Bone, Skylar Diggins
2010 – Chiney Ogwumike, Natasha Howard, Odyssey Sims
2011 – Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, Elizabeth Williams, Cierra Burdick
2012 – Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Alexis Jones
2013 – Mercedes Russell, Kaela Davis, Diamond DeShields
2014 – A’ja Wilson, Brianna Turner, Ariel Atkins
2015 – Katie Lou Samuelson, Asia Durr, Jessica Shepard

[BosCard]

Totally agree with 81alum.  Another point is that most superstar players (I'm defining as "so good that they alone are enough to get their team to a final four") tend to be ranked in the top 3 coming out of high school.  Here is some further evidence based on the last few classes which have played at least 3 years of college.  Based on my own subjective judgement, I've color-coded superstars in red, very good players in blue and good players in black.  The main point is that top 3 players tend to pan out as superstars or very good players.

2009 – Brittney Griner, Kelsey Bone, Skylar Diggins
2010 – Chiney Ogwumike, Natasha Howard, Odyssey Sims
2011 – Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, Elizabeth Williams, Cierra Burdick
2012 – Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Alexis Jones
2013 – Mercedes Russell, Kaela Davis, Diamond DeShields
2014 – A’ja Wilson, Brianna Turner, Ariel Atkins
2015 – Katie Lou Samuelson, Asia Durr, Jessica Shepard

[BostonCard]

I agree with you guys, which is why I noted in the past that Jones is the difference between a very good class and a transformational one.  Having a couple of top-three ranked players supported by a starting five of top-20 players is a recipe for competing for a national title.  Having a line-up full of top-20 players alone is usually not quite enough (with the caveat that occasionally a non-top 3 player will become a difference maker capable of elevating the entire team).

BC

[BostonCard]

I agree with you guys, which is why I noted in the past that Jones is the difference between a very good class and a transformational one.  Having a couple of top-three ranked players supported by a starting five of top-20 players is a recipe for competing for a national title.  Having a line-up full of top-20 players alone is usually not quite enough (with the caveat that occasionally a non-top 3 player will become a difference maker capable of elevating the entire team).

BC

[qwerty49]

Totally agree with 81alum.  Another point is that most superstar players (I'm defining as "so good that they alone are enough to get their team to a final four") tend to be ranked in the top 3 coming out of high school.  Here is some further evidence based on the last few classes which have played at least 3 years of college.  Based on my own subjective judgement, I've color-coded superstars in red, very good players in blue and good players in black.  The main point is that top 3 players tend to pan out as superstars or very good players.

2009 – Brittney Griner, Kelsey Bone, Skylar Diggins
2010 – Chiney Ogwumike, Natasha Howard, Odyssey Sims
2011 – Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, Elizabeth Williams, Cierra Burdick
2012 – Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Alexis Jones
2013 – Mercedes Russell, Kaela Davis, Diamond DeShields
2014 – A’ja Wilson, Brianna Turner, Ariel Atkins
2015 – Katie Lou Samuelson, Asia Durr, Jessica Shepard

Yeah, the numbers reveal what a crapshoot it is for us.  Only 3 of the 13 superstars (or 3 of the entire 21) were admitted to Stanford as far as I know.  (I think Elizabeth Williams came close).  

And we are 1 of 3 over 7 years.  Which to me indicates that Stanford recruiting runs in cycles and that this year is, at least statistically, an outlier.

So let's enjoy it!

[qwerty49]

Totally agree with 81alum.  Another point is that most superstar players (I'm defining as "so good that they alone are enough to get their team to a final four") tend to be ranked in the top 3 coming out of high school.  Here is some further evidence based on the last few classes which have played at least 3 years of college.  Based on my own subjective judgement, I've color-coded superstars in red, very good players in blue and good players in black.  The main point is that top 3 players tend to pan out as superstars or very good players.

2009 – Brittney Griner, Kelsey Bone, Skylar Diggins
2010 – Chiney Ogwumike, Natasha Howard, Odyssey Sims
2011 – Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, Elizabeth Williams, Cierra Burdick
2012 – Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Alexis Jones
2013 – Mercedes Russell, Kaela Davis, Diamond DeShields
2014 – A’ja Wilson, Brianna Turner, Ariel Atkins
2015 – Katie Lou Samuelson, Asia Durr, Jessica Shepard

Yeah, the numbers reveal what a crapshoot it is for us.  Only 3 of the 13 superstars (or 3 of the entire 21) were admitted to Stanford as far as I know.  (I think Elizabeth Williams came close).  

And we are 1 of 3 over 7 years.  Which to me indicates that Stanford recruiting runs in cycles and that this year is, at least statistically, an outlier.

So let's enjoy it!

[2006alum]

What's especially telling to me is that the two Top 3 players to have finished their collegiate careers and who did not go on to have All-American type careers both went to Tennessee. I can't think of a program that has squandered talent more than Tennessee in the post-Pat era. I honestly don't understand why players keep signing up for it. 

And I think Jessica Shepard deserves an asterisk both for being a current player (and thus her story hasn't finished being written) and for having transferred and thus lost time/momentum. She's also on a team with so many good players that it's hard to put up the kind of numbers that qualify as superstar. And hey, has won a national championship, so query whether she deserves more than merely "good." :)

ETA: Good call BosCard - fixed the Baylor omissions. I think I was repressing their championship...
ETAx2: I forgot Davis was on the winning Gamecocks team. Point is- most of the players on that list have won championships. ;)

[2006alum]

What's especially telling to me is that the two Top 3 players to have finished their collegiate careers and who did not go on to have All-American type careers both went to Tennessee. I can't think of a program that has squandered talent more than Tennessee in the post-Pat era. I honestly don't understand why players keep signing up for it. 

And I think Jessica Shepard deserves an asterisk both for being a current player (and thus her story hasn't finished being written) and for having transferred and thus lost time/momentum. She's also on a team with so many good players that it's hard to put up the kind of numbers that qualify as superstar. And hey, has won a national championship, so query whether she deserves more than merely "good." :)

ETA: Good call BosCard - fixed the Baylor omissions. I think I was repressing their championship...
ETAx2: I forgot Davis was on the winning Gamecocks team. Point is- most of the players on that list have won championships. ;)

[BosCard]

I had a hard time distinguishing between the blue and black players since they were all good players.  And just wanted to point out that Griner and Sims have a national championship as well (they went 40-0 in 2011-2012).

[BosCard]

I had a hard time distinguishing between the blue and black players since they were all good players.  And just wanted to point out that Griner and Sims have a national championship as well (they went 40-0 in 2011-2012).

[Jskass]

Don’t remind me. I really thought we had a shit in the semifinal game in Denver.

[Jskass]

Don’t remind me. I really thought we had a shit in the semifinal game in Denver.

[BostonCard]

Don’t remind me. I really thought we had a shit in the semifinal game in Denver.

Pretty sure that was meant to be a "had a shot"... But that other word aptly described things.

BC

[BostonCard]

Don’t remind me. I really thought we had a shit in the semifinal game in Denver.

Pretty sure that was meant to be a "had a shot"... But that other word aptly described things.

BC

[Jskass]

Shot sorry

[Jskass]

Shot sorry

[2006alum]

The SF Chronicle had a nice story yesterday about Cameron Brink and her connection to Steph Curry. The future is sure looking bright for our WBB team!

[2006alum]

The SF Chronicle had a nice story yesterday about Cameron Brink and her connection to Steph Curry. The future is sure looking bright for our WBB team!

[TheFarm07]

If Cameron has even a decent amount of Steph Curry's shooting prowess, then we are certainly in for a special few seasons with her teaming up with Haley Jones, Kiana, Fran, etc.

I can't wait to see who else Tara can get for the rest of Cameron's Class of 2020; her only problem will be finding everyone playing time.

[TheFarm07]

If Cameron has even a decent amount of Steph Curry's shooting prowess, then we are certainly in for a special few seasons with her teaming up with Haley Jones, Kiana, Fran, etc.

I can't wait to see who else Tara can get for the rest of Cameron's Class of 2020; her only problem will be finding everyone playing time.

[jonnyss]

If Cameron has even a decent amount of Steph Curry's shooting prowess, then we are certainly in for a special few seasons with her teaming up with Haley Jones, Kiana, Fran, etc.

I can't wait to see who else Tara can get for the rest of Cameron's Class of 2020; her only problem will be finding everyone playing time.

cameron played little and looked quite lost on the floor - especially on defense - in the fiba under-17 finals. haley and fran looked quite at home. i would chalk it up to cameron being younger except that paige bueckers, also in 2020, looked great. as did azzi fudd, who is 2021.

[jonnyss]

If Cameron has even a decent amount of Steph Curry's shooting prowess, then we are certainly in for a special few seasons with her teaming up with Haley Jones, Kiana, Fran, etc.

I can't wait to see who else Tara can get for the rest of Cameron's Class of 2020; her only problem will be finding everyone playing time.

cameron played little and looked quite lost on the floor - especially on defense - in the fiba under-17 finals. haley and fran looked quite at home. i would chalk it up to cameron being younger except that paige bueckers, also in 2020, looked great. as did azzi fudd, who is 2021.

[CompSci87]

Yes, Cameron didn't show much in the U17 tournament. Hopefully she's rated so highly by the services for a good reason.

Bueckers and Fudd were great. They're on Bob's list as possible Stanford recruits, so I'm still keeping my fingers crossed. UConn fans on the Boneyard want them both very badly.

Jones was great in the U17 tournament too. And Belibi showed well.

[CompSci87]

Yes, Cameron didn't show much in the U17 tournament. Hopefully she's rated so highly by the services for a good reason.

Bueckers and Fudd were great. They're on Bob's list as possible Stanford recruits, so I'm still keeping my fingers crossed. UConn fans on the Boneyard want them both very badly.

Jones was great in the U17 tournament too. And Belibi showed well.

[BosCard]

Hey BobK,

Here is some info I googled about 2021 Talia Von Oelhoffen:

• Ranked #5 overall on HoopGurlz
  
• 5'11" wing from Richland, WA
  
• HoopGurlz description:  "Agile perimeter performer exploits mismatches, takes what the defense gives and produces results; rebounds, scores in traffic; play maker in half-court game"
  
• From local newspaper:  "The Jaguars start three freshmen and two sophomores and are led by 6-foot freshman Talia von Oelhoffen, who is averaging 29.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. She already has caught the attention of college scouts from Oregon, Utah, Stanford and Louisville."
  
• Also from local newspaper:  "She also carries a 4.0 GPA. 'It's hard to balance, but it's worth it,' von Oelhoffen said."
  

She seems like a potential Stanford recruit, great player, from Washington state, high GPA and values academics.

Question for BobK, should we add her to the potential recruit list?

[BosCard]

Hey BobK,

Here is some info I googled about 2021 Talia Von Oelhoffen:

• Ranked #5 overall on HoopGurlz
  
• 5'11" wing from Richland, WA
  
• HoopGurlz description:  "Agile perimeter performer exploits mismatches, takes what the defense gives and produces results; rebounds, scores in traffic; play maker in half-court game"
  
• From local newspaper:  "The Jaguars start three freshmen and two sophomores and are led by 6-foot freshman Talia von Oelhoffen, who is averaging 29.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. She already has caught the attention of college scouts from Oregon, Utah, Stanford and Louisville."
  
• Also from local newspaper:  "She also carries a 4.0 GPA. 'It's hard to balance, but it's worth it,' von Oelhoffen said."
  

She seems like a potential Stanford recruit, great player, from Washington state, high GPA and values academics.

Question for BobK, should we add her to the potential recruit list?

[BobK]

Looks good, asking about her of my Washington guru first.

To be clear she is a Soph now. 4 openings for that year.

[BobK]

Looks good, asking about her of my Washington guru first.

To be clear she is a Soph now. 4 openings for that year.

[jonnyss]

Hey BobK,

Here is some info I googled about 2021 Talia Von Oelhoffen:

• Ranked #5 overall on HoopGurlz
  
• 5'11" wing from Richland, WA
  
• HoopGurlz description:  "Agile perimeter performer exploits mismatches, takes what the defense gives and produces results; rebounds, scores in traffic; play maker in half-court game"
  
• From local newspaper:  "The Jaguars start three freshmen and two sophomores and are led by 6-foot freshman Talia von Oelhoffen, who is averaging 29.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. She already has caught the attention of college scouts from Oregon, Utah, Stanford and Louisville."
  
• Also from local newspaper:  "She also carries a 4.0 GPA. 'It's hard to balance, but it's worth it,' von Oelhoffen said."
  

She seems like a potential Stanford recruit, great player, from Washington state, high GPA and values academics.

Question for BobK, should we add her to the potential recruit list?

looking at her videos, she reminds me of hannah jump.

[jonnyss]

Hey BobK,

Here is some info I googled about 2021 Talia Von Oelhoffen:

• Ranked #5 overall on HoopGurlz
  
• 5'11" wing from Richland, WA
  
• HoopGurlz description:  "Agile perimeter performer exploits mismatches, takes what the defense gives and produces results; rebounds, scores in traffic; play maker in half-court game"
  
• From local newspaper:  "The Jaguars start three freshmen and two sophomores and are led by 6-foot freshman Talia von Oelhoffen, who is averaging 29.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. She already has caught the attention of college scouts from Oregon, Utah, Stanford and Louisville."
  
• Also from local newspaper:  "She also carries a 4.0 GPA. 'It's hard to balance, but it's worth it,' von Oelhoffen said."
  

She seems like a potential Stanford recruit, great player, from Washington state, high GPA and values academics.

Question for BobK, should we add her to the potential recruit list?

looking at her videos, she reminds me of hannah jump.