05-13-2019, 11:12 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2019, 05:56 PM by BostonCard.)
We're down to the final eight teams, with the quarterfinals on Friday, the semifinals on Saturday, and the championship match on Sunday. Because of the tight timeframe, I figured one big thread makes more sense than a thread for each match.
Up first is 3rd-seeded Stanford's quarterfinal match against 6th-seeded Pepperdine, currently scheduled for 11am on Friday at the USTA National Campus near Orlando, Florida. (I say currently scheduled for two reasons. First, the new NCAA TV deal with the Tennis Channel means we might see schedules adjusted to maximize airtime within certain windows. And second, it wouldn't be the NCAA championships if matches didn't get postponed due to rain.)
How Stanford got here
Stanford (25-1, 10-0 Pac-12) suffered just one loss in the regular season (4-3 to top overall seed Georgia), went undefeated in Pac-12 play, and won the conference tournament to secure the #3 overall seed in the 64-team tournament. Stanford got an easy 4-0 win over New Mexico State in the first round and a relatively routine 4-1 win over #31 Syracuse to book its spot in the super regional, where it got pushed to the limit by #14 Kansas, ultimately winning 4-3.
How Pepperdine got here
Pepperdine (24-3, 9-0 WCC) also went undefeated in conference play, and racked up enough quality non-conference wins to make up for a weak WCC schedule and get itself a top 8 seed. In the regular season, it lost 4-1 to 5th seed Duke at Indoor Nationals, 4-3 to Cal in Malibu in a bit of a shocker, and 4-0 at Michigan. But it also beat UCLA twice, 4-0 at home and 4-3 on the road, it beat Texas 5-2 in Austin, and Northwestern 5-2 in Evanston. The Waves breezed past Fairfield in the first round, avenged the Cal loss by beating Cal 4-0 in the second round, and then fended off #23 UCF 4-2 in a match that was in the balance until the very end, with Pepperdine leading 3-2 as two matches started third sets.
Comparing the teams
No head-to-head result, but we have several common opponents:
* Syracuse (Pepperdine won 4-3, Stanford won 4-1)
* Cal (Pepperdine lost 4-3 (home, regular season) and won 4-0 (home, NCAAs); Stanford won 6-1 (away))
* UCLA (Pepperdine won 4-0 (home) and 4-3 (away); Stanford won 4-3 (away) and 4-2 (Pac-12s))
* Texas (Pepperdine won 5-2 (away); Stanford won 4-3 (neutral))
* St. Mary's (Pepperdine won 4-0; Stanford won 4-0)
* USC (Pepperdine won 4-1 (away); Stanford won 4-3 (away))
* Santa Clara (Pepperdine won 4-1; Stanford won 6-1)
From a UTR perspective, Stanford has an advantage. Looking at the Power 6 (the aggregate UTRs of the anticipated lineup), Stanford has 68.31 and Pepperdine has 67.01. Here's how UTR sees the individual matches:
1. Gordon up 0.12 (Gordon beat #37 Lahey 6-4, 6-2 at the USTA Blizzard Wild Card Challenge back in December)
2. Lord up 0.16
3. Lampl up 0.54
4. Arbuthnott up 0.63
5. Shin up 0.40
6. Madurawe down 0.35; Higuchi down 0.55 (Pepperdine's #6, Anastasia Iamachkine, has the team's 3rd-highest UTR and best dual-match record, so you can't put the deficit here completely on Higuchi's struggles)
So, three pretty sizable advantages, two slight ones, and one big deficit. In doubles, the #1 team has a 9-6 dual match record, the #2 team has an 11-2 record, and the #3 team has a 15-3 record. And they lost doubles against UCF, with UCF winning #2 narrowly and #3 handily while Pepperdine won big on #1. So winning the doubles point should certainly be on the table. Earlier this year, Lampl/Yee lost 6-4 to Pepperdine's Failla/Iamachkine, the pair they'll face on Friday, so hopefully they can figure out a way to turn that around. If Stanford can take the doubles point, they'd have to feel pretty good about their chances to win three singles matches.
Lineups
Doubles
1. #19 Lampl/Yee (10-6 regular-season dual record) vs. #41 Failla/Iamachkine (9-6)
2. #29 Arbuthnott/Gordon (13-2) vs. #86 Lahey/Kuczer (11-2)
3. #57 Lord/Madurawe (16-4) vs. Milovanovic/Lekaj (15-3)
Singles
1. #24 Gordon (13-4) vs. #37 Ashley Lahey (12-4)
2. #29 Lord (16-3) vs. #102 Adrijana Lekaj (13-6)
3. #66 Lampl (18-0) vs. #53 Jessica Failla (9-3; Failla used to be USC's #1 before transferring)
4. #44 Arbuthnott (17-2) vs. Dzina Milovanovic (11-3)
5. #108 Shin (15-3) vs. Daria Kuczer (9-2)
6. #107 Higuchi (13-4) vs. Anastasia Iamachkine (14-1)
Analysis
Pepperdine is an outstanding team, but it was considerably weakened by the mid-season departure of Evgeniya Levashova, who hasn't played for Pepperdine since the loss to Cal in mid-February but who is still ranked #16 in the singles rankings based on the strength of her fall tournament season. (FYI, the super regional match against UCF must have had a little extra juice, since Levashova is transferring... to UCF.) That's meant that several players are playing a line higher than they would otherwise. That said, Pepperdine beat UCLA twice and Texas on the road with this lineup, so they're still very dangerous.
They're good in doubles, but not dominant like Kansas had been; the Waves lost the doubles point six times (Duke, Cal, Michigan, UCSB, UCLA, and in the last match to UCF). And if we take doubles, UTR likes our chances to pull out a win with the doubles point and wins at #3, #4, and #5. Shin has had her drops in form this year, but to shake off losing the first set against Kansas and ultimately take the third set 6-2, knowing it was all riding on her--that can't help but give her a big boost of confidence. Given the importance of the moment, I expect the Gordon-Lahey match to be more competitive than when Gordon beat her 6-4, 6-2 at the USTA Blizzard Wild Card Challenge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Gordon or Lord score a win. I'll predict that we take the doubles point and get a straight set win from Arbuthnott, we lose at #6, and the three matches on 1, 2, 3, and 5 go to third sets, but we get the first two of the four to go final. I'll say a 4-1 win that is a lot closer than the final scoreline suggests. But Pepperdine is absolutely good enough to beat us, and I wouldn't be shocked if they pull out a close win. (Perhaps I'm not giving Lampl enough credit, or giving Failla too much credit, but I've seen how good she can be, so I'm having trouble sticking with UTR's perception of Lampl as a strong favorite. I think Lampl wins in the end, but Failla really pushes her.)
How to watch:
It might be on the Tennis Channel, but if not, you should be able to follow along with live video and scoring on the USTA's website: https://www.ustanationalcampus.com/en/home/watch.html
Up first is 3rd-seeded Stanford's quarterfinal match against 6th-seeded Pepperdine, currently scheduled for 11am on Friday at the USTA National Campus near Orlando, Florida. (I say currently scheduled for two reasons. First, the new NCAA TV deal with the Tennis Channel means we might see schedules adjusted to maximize airtime within certain windows. And second, it wouldn't be the NCAA championships if matches didn't get postponed due to rain.)
How Stanford got here
Stanford (25-1, 10-0 Pac-12) suffered just one loss in the regular season (4-3 to top overall seed Georgia), went undefeated in Pac-12 play, and won the conference tournament to secure the #3 overall seed in the 64-team tournament. Stanford got an easy 4-0 win over New Mexico State in the first round and a relatively routine 4-1 win over #31 Syracuse to book its spot in the super regional, where it got pushed to the limit by #14 Kansas, ultimately winning 4-3.
How Pepperdine got here
Pepperdine (24-3, 9-0 WCC) also went undefeated in conference play, and racked up enough quality non-conference wins to make up for a weak WCC schedule and get itself a top 8 seed. In the regular season, it lost 4-1 to 5th seed Duke at Indoor Nationals, 4-3 to Cal in Malibu in a bit of a shocker, and 4-0 at Michigan. But it also beat UCLA twice, 4-0 at home and 4-3 on the road, it beat Texas 5-2 in Austin, and Northwestern 5-2 in Evanston. The Waves breezed past Fairfield in the first round, avenged the Cal loss by beating Cal 4-0 in the second round, and then fended off #23 UCF 4-2 in a match that was in the balance until the very end, with Pepperdine leading 3-2 as two matches started third sets.
Comparing the teams
No head-to-head result, but we have several common opponents:
* Syracuse (Pepperdine won 4-3, Stanford won 4-1)
* Cal (Pepperdine lost 4-3 (home, regular season) and won 4-0 (home, NCAAs); Stanford won 6-1 (away))
* UCLA (Pepperdine won 4-0 (home) and 4-3 (away); Stanford won 4-3 (away) and 4-2 (Pac-12s))
* Texas (Pepperdine won 5-2 (away); Stanford won 4-3 (neutral))
* St. Mary's (Pepperdine won 4-0; Stanford won 4-0)
* USC (Pepperdine won 4-1 (away); Stanford won 4-3 (away))
* Santa Clara (Pepperdine won 4-1; Stanford won 6-1)
From a UTR perspective, Stanford has an advantage. Looking at the Power 6 (the aggregate UTRs of the anticipated lineup), Stanford has 68.31 and Pepperdine has 67.01. Here's how UTR sees the individual matches:
1. Gordon up 0.12 (Gordon beat #37 Lahey 6-4, 6-2 at the USTA Blizzard Wild Card Challenge back in December)
2. Lord up 0.16
3. Lampl up 0.54
4. Arbuthnott up 0.63
5. Shin up 0.40
6. Madurawe down 0.35; Higuchi down 0.55 (Pepperdine's #6, Anastasia Iamachkine, has the team's 3rd-highest UTR and best dual-match record, so you can't put the deficit here completely on Higuchi's struggles)
So, three pretty sizable advantages, two slight ones, and one big deficit. In doubles, the #1 team has a 9-6 dual match record, the #2 team has an 11-2 record, and the #3 team has a 15-3 record. And they lost doubles against UCF, with UCF winning #2 narrowly and #3 handily while Pepperdine won big on #1. So winning the doubles point should certainly be on the table. Earlier this year, Lampl/Yee lost 6-4 to Pepperdine's Failla/Iamachkine, the pair they'll face on Friday, so hopefully they can figure out a way to turn that around. If Stanford can take the doubles point, they'd have to feel pretty good about their chances to win three singles matches.
Lineups
Doubles
1. #19 Lampl/Yee (10-6 regular-season dual record) vs. #41 Failla/Iamachkine (9-6)
2. #29 Arbuthnott/Gordon (13-2) vs. #86 Lahey/Kuczer (11-2)
3. #57 Lord/Madurawe (16-4) vs. Milovanovic/Lekaj (15-3)
Singles
1. #24 Gordon (13-4) vs. #37 Ashley Lahey (12-4)
2. #29 Lord (16-3) vs. #102 Adrijana Lekaj (13-6)
3. #66 Lampl (18-0) vs. #53 Jessica Failla (9-3; Failla used to be USC's #1 before transferring)
4. #44 Arbuthnott (17-2) vs. Dzina Milovanovic (11-3)
5. #108 Shin (15-3) vs. Daria Kuczer (9-2)
6. #107 Higuchi (13-4) vs. Anastasia Iamachkine (14-1)
Analysis
Pepperdine is an outstanding team, but it was considerably weakened by the mid-season departure of Evgeniya Levashova, who hasn't played for Pepperdine since the loss to Cal in mid-February but who is still ranked #16 in the singles rankings based on the strength of her fall tournament season. (FYI, the super regional match against UCF must have had a little extra juice, since Levashova is transferring... to UCF.) That's meant that several players are playing a line higher than they would otherwise. That said, Pepperdine beat UCLA twice and Texas on the road with this lineup, so they're still very dangerous.
They're good in doubles, but not dominant like Kansas had been; the Waves lost the doubles point six times (Duke, Cal, Michigan, UCSB, UCLA, and in the last match to UCF). And if we take doubles, UTR likes our chances to pull out a win with the doubles point and wins at #3, #4, and #5. Shin has had her drops in form this year, but to shake off losing the first set against Kansas and ultimately take the third set 6-2, knowing it was all riding on her--that can't help but give her a big boost of confidence. Given the importance of the moment, I expect the Gordon-Lahey match to be more competitive than when Gordon beat her 6-4, 6-2 at the USTA Blizzard Wild Card Challenge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Gordon or Lord score a win. I'll predict that we take the doubles point and get a straight set win from Arbuthnott, we lose at #6, and the three matches on 1, 2, 3, and 5 go to third sets, but we get the first two of the four to go final. I'll say a 4-1 win that is a lot closer than the final scoreline suggests. But Pepperdine is absolutely good enough to beat us, and I wouldn't be shocked if they pull out a close win. (Perhaps I'm not giving Lampl enough credit, or giving Failla too much credit, but I've seen how good she can be, so I'm having trouble sticking with UTR's perception of Lampl as a strong favorite. I think Lampl wins in the end, but Failla really pushes her.)
How to watch:
It might be on the Tennis Channel, but if not, you should be able to follow along with live video and scoring on the USTA's website: https://www.ustanationalcampus.com/en/home/watch.html

